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From Diana Russini, The Athletic:
The bad surprises? The Chargers and Bills. L.A. has a bad roster, and if they can’t keep Justin Herbert healthy, they will be terrible. They have some big names on defense, but their offensive skill players are weak.
I think she’s wrong. The Chargers have the 3rd easiest schedule in the NFL and a more competant coaching staff. That’s a big plus. I’m thinking at least 10-11 wins due to the Harbaugh effect. If we can’t get at the very least a #7 seed in the playoffs (more like #6), then we’re a sorry ass excuse for a team.
@aircoryell73 that’s a lot with the roster and cap situation they inherited. The AFC is stacked:
Kansas City, Baltimore, Buffalo, Houston, Pittsburgh, Cleveland. All in the playoffs last season.
Chargers will be battling Cincinnati, New York, Jacksonville for the 7th spot.
It’s hard to rebuild a new team and new culture that quick. I just want to see them improving over the course of the season.
@spanos-must-go I believe I have read or heard that usually 3 playoff teams per conference do not repeat. Not sure if I got that right.
AFC playoff teams last season: KC, BUF, MIA, BAL, PIT, CLE, HOU
If I had to pick 3 to miss the playoffs this season, I’d pick MIA, PIT, CLE. Regardless, if there are 3 new teams in the playoffs, I certainly think it is true that CIN, NYJ, and JAX will be in contention. But I think the Chargers can be as well.
The Chargers have an easy schedule. I think they will have a top 10-15 defense (more below). Assuming Herbert and the OL stay healthy, I think they will have a lot of close games, and I expect them to have a good record in close games due to strong coaching plus Herbert. All of this is a recipe for 9+ wins.
With regard to the defense, consider where the Chargers would have ranked last season if we remove the Raiders blowout fiasco… other than that one game, the Chargers allowed 21 ppg, which would have ranked as 13th best in the league. The Chargers’ overall PFF defense grade ranked 19th, including all games.
Now consider:
- Out: Austin Johnson, SJD, Rumph, Murray, Kendricks, JC Jackson, Davis, Woods… and Staley and his coaching staff
- In: (hopefully) Bosa, Poona, Tart, Eboigbe, Dupree, Perryman, Henley (in for playing time), Colson, Fulton, Molden, Hart, Still… and Minter and his coaching staff
IMO this is going to be a very good defense, and I think most (like Diana Russini) are overlooking that and how impactful that is going to be.
@tau837 Be careful mate, the quote below is flirting dangerously with being a Staley apologist. Always knew you had a softer side 😆
With regard to the defense, consider where the Chargers would have ranked last season if we remove the Raiders blowout fiasco… other than that one game, the Chargers allowed 21 ppg, which would have ranked as 13th best in the league. The Chargers’ overall PFF defense grade ranked 19th, including all games.
@tau837 You gave some good information here. I don’t agree with Diana. I think he offense will be better than she anticipates. She’s basically calling it garbage before she actually has a chance to see it. That’s the life of a prognosticator. There has to a reckoning for what works and what does not.
If we focus on one side of a three sided (many sided if we’re being honest) entity, the macro slips away. I don’t want to focus on STs here because we are all too aware of that. They certainly are a unit that we can have confidence in these days. Here’s a look of some recent seasons. I used a 6 points per game standard for win/loss margins. 2018 is a great reference year.
2018* Anthony Lynn
Record: 12-4, 2nd round exit from the playoffs (my family stills rips me for this one).
Points For: 26.8 (6th)
Points Against: 20.6 (8th)
Won By Six Points Or Less: 5
Loss By Six Points Or Less: 1
2021 Brandon Staley
Record: 9-8
Points For: 27.9 (5th)
Points Against: 27 (29th)
Won By Six Points Or Less: 5
Loss By Six Points Or Less: 4
2022* Brandon Staley
Record: 10-7 First Round Exit From The Playoffs
Points For: 23 (13th)
Points Against: 22.6 (21st)
Won By Six Points Or Less: 8
Loss By Six Points Or Less: 4
2023 Brandon Staley
Record: 5-12
Points For: 20.4 (21st)
Points Against: 23.4 (24th)
Won By Six Points Or Less: 2
Loss By Six Points Or Less: 7
I know that you discussed that debacle in Vegas. Here’s the thing, in 2023, the defense had 6 games where they held teams to below 20 points. It was 17,13,6,0,16 and 13. That has to count in trying to balance things out across the season. I don’t think it’s fair to discount the Raider game. It was an outlier. But, we can’t factor it out. The shutout was an outlier as well. That is a snapshot of a bad football team that had issues very early. The last 4 games were not going to save it no matter what. They ranked bottom 3rd of the league in everything besides STs. They were doomed.
What I see with the season examples above is that the balance of the team has everything to do with the result. The closer each unit is to the other, the more predictable the result becomes. The close game win/loss margins make it more predictable. The closer you get to .500 in those games, the more trouble you are in. Being below .500 is a coffin nail. Yes, not being able to close it out is coaching in my opinion. Maybe that’s just me.
Balance from all involved and ranking consistently closer together for all units on the plus side wins games and championships.
@mongotesla being the “edgy” prognosticator gets you the clicks.
As I said above, I’m not ready to jump in on double digit wins but I certainly think 9 is quite doable. 10 would be my ceiling for this year. I have doubts at offensive center and how that could trickle down. No real offensive weapon at TE. WR? I’m in wait & see mode there. IDL is a question mark for me and the CB group is largely unproven in regular season play.
I don’t expect miracles this year. Next year? I expect to punch KC right in the face. But first….FTR.
@buck-melanoma I predicted a ceiling of 13 wins last season, so my opinion is obviously very biased, but….
I think coaching matters. I do not think there is a better staff (top-to-bottom) in the NFL. The games this team loses this year will be due to their opponent being significantly better. Will the Chargers win the division in 2024? Not likely, but I do think they will be a much more difficult out for KC. I could see this team getting to 10+ wins AND win a playoff game.
@kevdiego of course I hope you’re right. I’m just not ready to accept that even this vastly improved coaching staff can overcome the roster hole that the previous front office created.
@tau837 the problem with the 2023 Chargers defense was it’s inability to get a stop when it mattered. I actually think that goes for both the offense and defense.
If an opponent got the ball down by 5 late in the game, you KNEW they were going to score (and the usually did). Fangio made a statement after the Miami game that they held something back to stop the last drive (and he said that he KNEW how to stop a Moore-coached offense).
With the new staff, I think we’ve swapped checkers players for chess masters. We’ll see how many wins that leads to, but my guess is a lot.
@aircoryell73 I think she’s wrong but I’m not ready to go above 9 wins this season.
Next year? Look out, KC!
I’ve been reading some predictions from various national outlets & they’re really all over the map (no pun intended). I really believe that these national “experts” first notice that the “splashy” names on offense aren’t there anymore in Keenan & Mike Williams. So their rationale is that all of a sudden there’s no more playmakers on offense. That’s a lazy take. They also don’t seem to stress the important of having a competent coaching staff in place to get the most out of these guys. With good health, I can see the Chargers winning 10 games & a wild card berth.
From CBS Sports (regarding betting the over or under on win totals):
DeArdo: Under 9: Is someone seeing something I’m not? For whatever reason, the Chargers’ win total is set at 9 games despite an unproven receiving corps, a new head coach who hasn’t coached in the NFL since 2014 and play in a division that includes the two-time defending Super Bowl champions (along with a Broncos team that I expect will be better than most expect). Barring Justin Herbert playing at an historically-high level, third place in the AFC West is the only thing I see L.A. competing for this year.
Lol. And here’s one from the same media source with a completely different prediction. These predictions are all over the place, particularly with the Chargers. The so-called experts don’t seem to know where to put them.
I’m curious to get a status update on Rashawn Slater’s availability for Sunday. I know he didn’t practice last week. Having him against the Raiders is crucial, with Crosby on the other side.
My 2 biggest concerns remain offensive center and IDL.
A few links to share:
CBS Sports thinks Herbert is the 11th best QB in the NFL (Behind Purdy, Hurts, Prescott, Love):
Pete Prisco thinks the Chargers will win pretty easily Sunday:
John Breech thinks the Chargers win a close, defensive struggle Sunday:
Broncos PAY Surtain – Will be interesting to see what this does to Zont’s value this offseason:
Pro Football Talk season predictions. This goes along with a common theme that the national media is all over place with this Chargers team:
https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/pfts-2024-nfl-season-predictions
@lfg_boltz Florio….lol. That guy is such a shit stirring wag.
But you’re right….there’s little consensus about the Chargers this year. I guess pundits are tired of getting burned by pre-season hype too.
“When you see us pop up on the schedule, it’s going to be a long Sunday”.
YES YES YES!!!!
I said in the GDT that Bosa got my game ball vs the Raiders. This is the guy I want to see on Sundays….healthy and balling out. Be a lunch pail guy, Joey, and stay healthy. Let’s finally see you, Mack, & Tui wreak some havoc together.
Molden is a testament to Hortiz churning the roster and constantly looking to improve. What a difference!! And yes, Molden IS a baller.
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