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Great article by Popper from Buck's posted link. Popper is at his best with write-ups like this one when he reports his findings with less of his opinions.
For those of us who don’t have access to The Athletic articles, Popper’s main point of his article is that opposing defenses have gone to heavy man coverage instead of zone coverage to beat Roman’s passing offense with struggling receivers who can’t get separation, except Ladd McConkey.
I had noted of the heavy man coverage by the Ravens and Falcons, but what I didn’t know, Herbert has seen the highest man coverage rate this season among starting QB’s. The report was that Herbert has struggled this season against man coverage after he excelled against such coverage in all four seasons leading up to this year. While I agree that the offense lacks the horses, but could it be that Herbert being the “Guardian of Victory” Jim Harbaugh has placed on him has caused him to be trigger-shy with the football not wanting to risk turning the ball over by throwing it into tight coverages? Another factor to the offensive struggles?
Comparing it to when Keenan and MW were the focus of the passing offense, I don’t see too much of a drop-off once you equate Keenan’s production to Ladd McConkey’s since Mike Williams didn’t get open a whole lot out of man coverage. What also Herbert hasn’t done this season is doing a whole lot of throwing his receivers open off tight coverages. He appeared to be reluctant to throw to tight coverages and being more selective with his targets while holding on to the ball longer than he normally does, which allows pass rushers to get to him more often.
Herbert this week said they’ve gotten a lot of man coverage and it’s something they definitely need to address and need to be able to beat. Did they just learn that after the Falcons game, or did they learn it since after the second-half struggle in the Bengals game and the Ravens games? This offense obviously lacks the playmakers at WR but they could have run more mesh concepts in the Falcons game than they did in the Ravens game had they learned anything from their struggles against man coverage.
In the Ravens game, two drops by QJ in shallow drag routes in a mesh concept with him and Palmer running crossing drag routes with Dissley and Ladd taking the clear-out deeper routes. Would we get to see more of mesh concepts, designed QB runs for Herbert, and offensive wrinkles to try to beat KC’s heavy man coverage on Sunday? I’m very interested to find out what kind of adjustments Roman has come up with for the Chiefs.
@tui1hit honestly? I'm very interested to see Roman come up with any productive adjustments.
If this team really intended to be run-centric, 2 things they did with regards to roster building are head scratchers for me.
1. In a very deep draft class for centers, they ignored the position.
2. Pipkins as an interior offensive lineman is a bad joke and I'll die on that hill.
I also question continuing to use Matlock in a FB role.
Yes, a productive run game would likely help the offense. You know what else would really help it? A stud, pass catching TE. I'd hardly call Smartt a stud but he definitely added juice in the 2nd half on Sunday.
This offense runs through Herbert. Yes, a run game is important....but I believe this team sets up the run by passing, not vice versa. And if you're determined (though play calling calls that into question) to be a run-centric team, address the inadequacies of the interior offensive line.
I'm impressed with this front office and coaching staff for the most part. I do think it was a big misstep to ignore center in the draft and I'm not a cheerleader for Roman as OC. Herbert is this team's most valuable asset. That's where you start with building an offensive identity. Right now, this offense has no identity other than they can't put 4 good quarters together in a game. Herbert the game manager is a BS look and a waste.
I really want this kid to succeed.
Give the man his due....he's surely helped Harbaugh get this team to the playoffs.
@buck-melanoma Some of Popper's cap calculations are off base, but he is close. The Chargers are flush with cap space and draft capital this offseason. I hope they use it agressively. I trust Hortiz's "aggressive" to be better than Telesco's...
@tau837 Tau, I responded to your latest post on BFTB and I threw out a scenario where Hortiz does not go on a spending spree with a few big splashes. With all the one year contracts expiring this team needs to be smart with FA and the draft to find enough permanent pieces so that we aren’t going bonkers with 1 year deals every year. Add to the fact that I don’t think Higgins or Smith will hit FA and the big ticket positions we need are off the table. I got into it in depth in the reply, but I think Hortiz will spend wisely, keeping some $ for next years FA when I think the roster will be more complete to go big game hunting to fill in the gaps.
Thanks. I replied to you at BFTB.
I generally disagree with your post here. You seem to equate spending cap space to sign a number of internal and external free agents, some to big contracts, with being irresponsible. You seem to equate signing multiple external free agents like I proposed (Smith, Kelly, Higgins) with not "spending wisely". I disagree.
The overall point of my two recent posts at BFTB is to show that the Chargers can re-sign all of the internal free agents they want back while also signing multiple big impact external free agents, like G Smith, C Kelly, and WR Higgins, with cap space to spare. Assumptions are made, like making Bosa and Pipkins cap casualties... but those seem like reasonable assumptions IMO.
I am not advocating "going bonkers with 1 year deals every year." It is a false premise to imply that the choice is to either do that or alternatively to "spend wisely." Bargain shopping and signing free agents to 1 year deals was necessary last offseason. It is not necessary this year. although bargain 1 year deals are still appealing if Hortiz maintains his hit rate.
Now, you may be right that neither Smith nor Higgins will actually reach free agency. I think it would be foolish for their teams to commit the cap space it will take to keep them given their situations, but anything can happen.
@tau837 Maybe my usage of “responsible” spending was taken out of context. What I meant to say is that we have a ton of holes to fill just to keep the team playing, especially on defense, to the level it experienced last year and some of those players who balled out to get us there are going to be way more expensive than they were a year ago. My big picture is this team is 2 drafts/off seasons away from legit SB contention. Factoring in the cutting of Bosa, Pipkins and Edwards, as you did, gives us 27 players signed to the roster which means we need to sign/draft 26 players to get to 53. Assuming that 7/10 draft picks make the opening day roster, that still leaves us with 19 players to add to get to the minimum 53. I would rather spread the $ around, especially to add a few quality, longer term depth pieces at positions like S, LB, IOL, DL. With another strong draft class this year giving us long term solutions at certain positions and having a good cap situation next offseason, could put us in position then to splurge on some higher priced FA talent if we wanted to go that route.
Now it’s possible my math is off on the roster # (it’s 12:45 EST here), but I just prefer the $ to be spent more evenly across the board on some higher end talent to fill out some starters and depth on the roster.
I am not completely against a different approach of going after the bigger names this cycle, but I just wouldn’t want to see the majority of the $ spent on only a few big players and rounding out the roster with more 1 year type deals, if that makes sense?
I would rather spread the $ around, especially to add a few quality, longer term depth pieces at positions like S, LB, IOL, DL.
In my recent fan post at BFTB, I projected signing these free agents:
- G Smith - 4 years
- C Kelly - 2 years
- C Bozeman - 1 year
- T Sarell - 1 year
- WR Higgins - 4 years
- RB Dobbins - 3 years with out for the team after 2
- TE Fisk - 1 year
- TE Smartt - 1 year
- QB2 Heinicke - 2 years
- Edge Mack - 2 years
- IDL Ford - 3 years with out for the team after 2
- IDL Tart - 3 years
- LB Dye - 2 years
- CB Fulton - 3 years
- S Molden - 3 years
- S Jefferson - 1 year
- P Scott - 4 years
I only proposed 5 of 17 free agents on 1 year deals, and 1 of those is a ERFA, so that is a lock if they want Fisk back.
I proposed to use draft picks as follows (understanding that value may dictate a different path, but this could be an ideal group):
- 1st round - Edge
- 2nd round - TE1
- 3rd/4th round - RB1/2 (complement to and possible long term replacement for Dobbins)
- Day 3 - IDL, LB x2, DB, OL
That is 8 of the 10 picks. A 9th pick or UDFA could fill roster spot 53.
All of this left ~$11M in cap space unused, while already accounting for in season expenses. So 2-3 more higher grade veteran free agents could be signed to improve upon what I showed above (whether overriding a draft pick or one of my identified free agents).
Is what I proposed really not meeting your objective quoted here? If not, what do you not like about this strategy?
@tau837 If this were all come to fruition it could work, but even if they become available, I think Smith and Tee will be over priced, so I don't see a way where we sign the top 2 FA available. I know you want Dobbins back, but I would pivot. Like I said we might have just gotten the health outlier on his career, so I would rather get out a year early than late. I think with the season's they just had, Ford and Tart might be more expensive than you are expecting. With the dearth of C in FA, I think Kelly will be over priced as well. When the dust settles, I expect the C room to be Bozeman and a day 3 pick (Monheim, Majors?). Unless you are going to pay Fulton CB1 $, he's probably going to get a bigger offer elsewhere. Factoring in that I would make Taylor my first cut of the offseason, we need 3 CB to complete the room (CB1, Hart, CB3, Still, Leonard, CB6). With this the case, at least one will need to come from FA, and unless we are taking one in Rd1 or Rd2 the latest, we have to pay for a CB1 that will be an upgrade over Fulton (Charvarious Ward, DJ Reed, Paulson Adebo, Byron Murphy?) At S, I would rather over pay a little for Molden if needed, because he's young and he fits the scheme perfectly.
The rest of the signings are fine, but I could even take a pivot at P if it happens. At the end of the day, the team will make improvements, and neither of us will be 100% right. FWIW, I think this team is realistically 2 drafts away from being a legit SB contender, so I could still see this offseason continuing to build with longer term foundational pieces and having good available cap $ for next year to start adding the finishing pieces.
@evolz3737 I guess I'll have to agree to disagree with you, since you seem to be disagreeing with the detailed takes I put in my posts.
I freely admit I could be wrong about my assumptions, but it is worth noting that I cited multiple sources about the contracts to be expected for these free agents. Could some of them get higher priced contracts, sure, but I attempted to validate my projections with objective sources.
As a constructive criticism, it would be great for your readers if you used more whitespace, or bullets, etc.
@tau837 Sorry. I usually answer from my desktop and the posts are shorter with the bigger screen.
@tau837 oh lawd I hope so! Telesco wouldn't have steered the team through the cap hell he and Lil Johnny created nearly as successfully. Excited for this year's version having money to spend.
And I'm more confident in your #s, Tau. Popper isn't as detailed or explanatory in his approach. Same overall methodology just a higher altitude pass, IMO. And I've seen your accuracy over a few years now.
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