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Week 12 Open Thread: Welcome to the HarBowl

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Erick V
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Better hope we never play the Ravens in the playoffs. John owns Jim


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Buck Melanoma
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Gonna be a fun Thanksgiving dinner at the Harbaugh’s!


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Buck Melanoma
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I’m not surprised by the loss. I’m a bit stung by how badly the defense was pushed around. Would Perryman have helped? Some but not sure enough.

It’s even more obvious against better teams that everyone not named McConkey struggles to get any separation. And Roquan would’ve feasted with inside blitzes.


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Erick V
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@buck-melanoma Buck, I ask this seriously. What is our identity on offense? We don’t run it particularly well and we don’t have really any offensive playmakers to open it up. It seems our only identity is shit second half offense.


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Buck Melanoma
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That’s a very fair question. I can’t answer it without getting pessimistic.


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 GBGH
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They are averaging 24 points per game over the last 7 games. They are balanced but still lack the interior O line to run the ball consistently. The loss of Dobbins made them one dimensional and so without balance they struggled.


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 GBGH
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Interior D line still needs help. We knew that going into season and they have overperformed IMO. Exposed some today but only the Cards and Ravens have made them look bad against the run.


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Buck Melanoma
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It’s not just Pipkins but he’s not a starter.


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 GBGH
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Time to bring Chark in and see what he can do. Let him do what they are trying to do with QJ.


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Buck Melanoma
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Apparently he’s a cadaver.


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 GBGH
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They have just liked who they have. Time to bring him in and see what he can do.


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Erick V
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@gbgh He’s been a healthy scratch. If the guy could play he would be in there. He’s a bust signing.


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Buck Melanoma
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Tonight was the worst Fulton has looked to date.

Hope Dobbins’ injury isn’t severe.


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Buck Melanoma
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Gotta shake it off, learn from the mistakes, and prepare for the next opponent. Falcons?


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Erick V
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@buck-melanoma Yup. Another good offense. Looks like the 24+ point streak against us will stay intact.


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Erick V
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I know I’m not a professional scout or talent evaluator, but I do enjoy watching a ton of college football and prospect tape, especially during draft season so that I can break down the players and come up with my own draft grades. With that being said, and just watching the last season and a half of NFL results, in what world would anyone that evaluates players for a living, consider QJ to be a better prospect than Zay Flowers or Jordan Addison? It’s honestly fucking mind boggling that they preferred a plodding WR with no contested catch ability or twitch and bad hands over either of them in the draft. It’s almost unfathomable when you think about it objectively. Again, you can’t blame a player for where he was drafted, but if there was a redraft, he wouldn’t even be drafted in the first four rounds in a weak WR class, and we are trotting him out there as a starter. 🤦🏻‍♂️🤦🏻‍♂️🤦🏻‍♂️


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KevDiego
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I fucking hated the pick at the time. It was Telesco’s final “look how smart I am” pick, which never worked out. So happy that dude is with the Raiders.


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Tau837
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@evolz3737 I didn’t like the pick at the time, either.

But I can tell you that I evaluated the 2023 draft picks as the draft played out at BFTB, and I tracked position and overall rankings from 11 public sources I viewed as credible. Their average position ranking for QJ was 2.5, and he was the 2nd WR drafted. Their average overall ranking was 21, and he was the 21st player drafted.

He hasn’t performed to his draft position, no doubt about that. But that is true of a lot of players, year in, year out. Unfortunately, the Chargers seemingly used a poor process to determine they should draft him, and it burned them. It’s not QJ’s fault, it’s the combined fault of Telesco, Staley, Moore, and John Spanos.

I also think it is fair to note that neither the 2023 nor 2024 coaching staff have truly used QJ to his strengths. His biggest strength in college was running after the catch. I know he had at least one terrible drop on Sunday night where he would have had room to run, but he was not known as a player who should be expected to win contested catches regularly coming out of college, yet that is what both coaching staffs have regularly asked him to do.

He’s not done. His contract is guaranteed for two more seasons. All we can do is hope he can shake it off and get better.


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KevDiego
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This team has gotten its ass kicked twice, both by teams that literally beat the shit out of them. They just do not have the roster to out-physical teams like the Ravens and Steelers. If they want to win against these types of teams this season, they need to be a bit smarter about how they approach the game. Trying to be more physical just ain’t gonna work in 2024.


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Erick V
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@kevdiego it’s not even the overall more “physical” teams. Arizona punched them in the mouth and they lost that game to. It’s one thing to walk it and another thing to talk it. I know people are saying it’s year 1 and we still need the roster to be better, but so far the teams identity is to beat up on lesser opponents and can’t hang with winning teams or functional QBs. The team lacks any identity on offense. The passing game has no weapons and this so called punishing run game is in the bottom third of the league. For all the BS Harbaugh and Roman spewed about a rushing offense, today’s NFL is about the pass offense and having great to elite talent at QB. The faster they embrace this and get Herbert some real help the better they will be. The last few weeks still came down to “Justin bail us out” mode. The offensive philosophy is backwards from the teams best asset. The offense should be pass first with a strong running game to SUPPORT it. It is way easier to shut down a run first team than an explosive pass attack. I mean for fucks sake how many PI or defensive holding calls are there a game which is like another completed first down pass? Look at the next 3 opponents Atlanta, KC, TB. All have above average to elite QB play. With the way we have fared against those types of teams we are 1-3. Real possibility the next W is in NE.


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KevDiego
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The offense is an issue. It can look so good at times (like the first drive), but fails to respond to in-game adversity. I wrote on the TDU forum that there is a lot of experience on this offensive coaching staff. A staff this experienced should be able to respond to the adjustments the defense is throwing at them.

The Falcons just got their asses kicked by the Broncos and the Chiefs have not looked great. They could win or lose either of those games. Love Baker (his play has been a huge middle finger to the Browns – what a colossal fuckup that whole situation turned out to be), but I do not think Bowles is a great coach.

None of that matters unless the offense can figure itself out. A few ideas:

  • Play Salyer, not Pipkins. No idea what they’re watching, but Jamaree is a better guard
  • Play Chark, not QJ. No idea what he’s showing in practice, but it can’t be worse that what QJ has done in the last 2 games.
  • I like the longer passes, but maybe throw to a guy (like Chark or Rice) is actually good at stretching the field and making contested catches.

When playing physical teams, especially ones with a back like Henry, I have no idea why Scott Matlock is getting snaps. You need to get the biggest, ugliest dudes on the team to rotate in and anchor the interior. Ford and Tart were great, but they need help. What is CJ Okoye doing? They need big, physical players in the middle, not someone like Matlock who was getting blown off the ball.


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Erick V
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@kevdiego I might look stupid in a few years for saying this, but Roman isn’t the OC to take this team where it wants to go. He’s a square peg for the player personnel we have. You have an elite talent at QB. Why are we pining away to be the ’65 Packers offensively? How do you repeatedly shit the bed in the second half almost every week. When it mattered yesterday they put up 3 points. Same last week until Herbert went God mode late in the 4th Q. How can you have Herbert at QB and these are your 2nd half scoring #’s 

Week 2- 6 points

Week 3- 0 points

Week 4- 0 points

Week 6- 3 points

Week 7- 9 points

Week 9- 7 points

Are we serious? It’s not week 1 or 2. We are in the final quarter of the season and it’s still shit. Not to mention the Bengals game where we had a 21 point lead and he couldn’t even salt it away with a few FG drives. Instead, he comes out throwing all over the place giving them repeated 3 and outs to have the time to get back in the game. Consider me unimpressed.


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Tau837
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@evolz3737 

You’re not wrong that they need 2nd half offense to be better, that is merely stating the obvious. I mean, duh. Do you think Harbaugh and Roman want better 2nd half results or do you think they are happy with these 2nd half results?

All of you who want to blame Roman should be blaming Harbaugh. Everything Roman is doing is with Harbaugh’s blessing. They are aligned, whether you like it or not.

I feel like I need to remind everyone… this team was 5-12 last season. 5-12!!! They are 7-4 right now and very likely to make the playoffs, in year 1 post Telesco/Staley disaster. With all due respect, I feel like some of you need to maintain some perspective.


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KevDiego
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I don’t disagree with this. I will say that it’s frustrating watching the offense play well, then completely disappear.


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KevDiego
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I think everyone with eyes is unimpressed. Very few of us liked the Roman hire at the time, and we are being proven right week after week. I’m honestly baffled at how badly the team plays in the 2nd half. If I’m Jim, I would be lighting Roman’s ass on fire. “Do you want to be an OC in the NFL? If so, this 2nd half shit needs to stop right now.”

They honestly have no plan for adversity. That used to be my complaint about Telesco’s roster management. I was hoping that Shane Day and Trestman could inject more dynamics into the boring GRO offense.

What’s really concerning is that this running game is shit. That was supposed to be the one thing that Roman knew how to do.

So, we have an offense that can’t run the ball consistently and can’t win in key game situations.


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Tui
 Tui
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@kevdiego 

The 7-4 record and most likely making the playoffs is unimpressive?? Roman isn’t what everyone thought the offense would be because he is letting Herbert being Herbert? Those who didn’t like Roman didn’t like it when the offense ran the ball more than Herbert throwing it, which was part of the offense’s first install by Roman and Harbaugh. Now that the offense is throwing the ball more, phase 2 of the offense’s install, but the naysayers aren’t giving Harbaugh and Roman any credit for where the offense is even with the shitty receivers, TE’s, IOL, FB/HB’s, etc this team has. It’s only year one of rebuilding but we have such unrealistic expectations, which I find preposterous. 

What I would like to see here for the naysayers to break down the offensive scheme, plays and calls that Roman & Harbaugh could have done better. And, a list of OC’s Jim Harbaugh could have hired instead. 


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Tau837
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@tui1hit Agree 100% and posted similar. It would be great to win the Super Bowl in Harbaugh’s first season, but that was never realistic. Everyone just needs to sit back and appreciate the build to glory.


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(@alisterlloyd)
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@kevdiego Agree with some of this Kev.

What I’ll add though is last week was Pipkins best game as a pro (80+ PFF Grade) and when Salyer has been given full games at Guard I don’t think he’s looked obviously better. Sometimes he has looked even worse. So following last week I understand why they are sticking to their Pipkins project and using Salyer in some limited goal-line snaps which are working well for him.


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KevDiego
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I watched the all-22 last week. I did see some decent play, especially when they had Trey pulling/moving. I still think he’s not strong enough to play the interior, which, at least according to my broadcast watch, the Ravens were able to take advantage of.


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(@alisterlloyd)
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@evolz3737 I saw a stat that we’ve been the 2nd most pass happy team in the NFL since Wk 4, so perhaps they have listened! Doesn’t fix the issues at WR though. The skill level just isn’t there


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(@duck07)
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@kevdiego Most of my Mock’s right now are essentially TE-Center-DT/Edge 1-2-3.

 

I’m reminded that we’re seemingly ahead of schedule wins-wise but still in need of building out the trenches. Will be interesting to see the focus in free agency as I think it will lean towards WR and CB.


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Smith
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@duck07 

Hey, Duck. Let me parrot other people and say I’m glad you’ve migrated this way. (This formerly FiatBux.)

Your mocks make sense, but it wouldn’t surprise me if they double-dip on either line in the first three rounds. I could see another year of dumpster diving at TE. We’ll see. I’m looking forward to seeing how Hortiz attacks things with a year under his belt and a wad of cash in his pocket. 
That said, I’m not looking too much into the offseason yet. I’m enjoying that the Bolts are winning and have a clear and realistic path to the playoffs. It feels so foreign and wonderful. 


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Even though QJ has caught some TDs this year and improved, I thought there were signs on the All-22 in recent weeks (and especially last week) that he’s got a long way to go to justify pick 1.21.

Yesterday was obviously a setback for him, but this was the part that bothered me most: https://twitter.com/TDU_Chargers/status/1861538812800966780

I try to give players and coaches three full seasons before cutting bait (unless they show they are clearly not up to the level). I don’t think QJ is approaching the ‘cut him’ stage just yet, but he needs to get yday out of his mind and bounce back strongly next week.


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Buck Melanoma
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I agree, Alister…and you know I’ve been really trying to support the kid. I too give 3 yrs barring some insufferable event….but I’m really beginning to doubt if QJ has the mental toughness for this level.


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Buck Melanoma
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and let me add (well past edit window), he’ll never support that draft position. Ever.


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Smith
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@buck-melanoma 

After this first year-and-a-half, he’d have to go off for something like 1,300 yards and 10 TDs next year to make case he was worth that pick. I don’t see that happening. Still, he has a huge opportunity on Sunday against the Falcons’ porous secondary. I’m hoping he gets his head (and hands) right for a game in which the matchups say he could absolutely feast. I’m rooting for the guy. 


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Buck Melanoma
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I’ll root for him as long as he’s wearing that Charger uni. It’s just getting tougher.


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Smith
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@buck-melanoma 

I would be ok if he were having “new” problems, for example if he was now catching double teams or constantly getting bullied off the line, but it’s been a season plus of the same old with him. He is inconsistent in separation, can’t make a contested catch, and sometimes, simply drops the ball. All of these are problems that scouts saw on his college tape. Last year we could chalk some of it up to coaching, that they weren’t getting him in positions to succeed. This year, though, he’s been given great opportunities, and he’s taken advantage of some of them, but that Ravens game was rough. Here’s to hoping for a huge bounce back this week. I wouldn’t put any money on it, but hope is cheap. 


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(@duck07)
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@alisterlloyd Contrast that to Ladd’s reaction 2 weeks ago against Cincy on the Herbert throw that was too high on 3rd down and which was Justin’s fault but Ladd was pissed he didn’t catch and then was ready for the ball the next time it came to him.

 

I think if the team is to move on from QJ in the off-season, it would likely be in a player swap trade where each team hopes for a “change of scenery” improvement. His contract isn’t favorable for releasing him outright.

 

In the meantime my crazy idea is to start playing him at RB like Arthur Smith did in Atlanta with Cordarelle Patterson, they aren’t that far off in RAS score’s.


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Tau837
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So I complained that James wasn’t living up to his contract after last week’s game, and then he went out and had the second best game of his career, at least by PFF grade… his grade this week was 90.9, second only to his 91.1 grade at Denver in week 12 of 2021. That strong grade matches what I saw in the game broadcast.

It would be a real boost to the team if he could start playing at an All Pro level, like he did in 2018. Especially with injuries impacting several DBs.

I would say that I would start criticizing more players, hoping for the reverse jinx, but I have been critical of some others like Bozeman, and it hasn’t had that effect…

Different subject… I’m trying to maintain perspective on the offensive struggles… the team is 8-4 and likely to double its win total from last season and make the playoffs, despite inheriting a challenging roster and cap situation. Harbaugh has clearly built a culture that is having positive impact on game outcomes, and that is very exciting to see. The defense is obviously a revelation. Hortiz found a lot of impressive player value in the offseason (e.g., Alt, McConkey, Hart, Still, Dobbins, Dissly, Ford, Tart, Perryman, Molden). That’s a lot of positives.

All that said, it is really hard to understand the offensive struggles. Taking all of the offensive players into account and trying to objectively assess the overall talent level, it seems like it is good enough to support more offensive success. Which makes me believe the problem is scheme, playcalling, and coaching. We all know Roman has never had a top passing offense, but the fact that this performance continues suggests that Harbaugh is supportive of the scheme, playcalling, and coaching. And that is concerning to me.

I would like to believe that with all of the cap space and draft picks the Chargers will have in the offseason, they will be able to upgrade at WR1, C, RG, TE, and RB. That sounds like a lot, but IMO it is very achievable. So I’m expecting personnel/talent will be improved in 2025… but I’m still worried that Roman may not be the right OC to maximize offensive performance.


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(@alisterlloyd)
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@tau837 

I would like to believe that with all of the cap space and draft picks the Chargers will have in the offseason, they will be able to upgrade at WR1, C, RG, TE, and RB. That sounds like a lot, but IMO it is very achievable. So I’m expecting personnel/talent will be improved in 2025… but I’m still worried that Roman may not be the right OC to maximize offensive performance.

Valid concern and one which most of us share (I imagine). What does Roman have going for him?

  • Significant NFL experience
  • A history of success as a run designer
  • Close with the HC
  • Has been an OC with Offenses that have finished in the Top 15 for Points Scored numerous times.
  • Has been an OC to an Offense which produced an NFL MVP.
  • Experience at getting his QBs to use their legs to good effect.
  • Given his age and reputation for not being the best pass game coordinator, I think it’s likely that no NFL team will seriously consider him for a HC role in the near-future.

Since we’re expecting personnel/talent to improve in 2025 (and beyond), I think it’s probably better to stick with Roman as OC for the foreseeable future:

  • Herbert has had a revolving door at OC. The analogy that’s been used is learning French one year, German the next, and Chinese the year after without ever getting the chance for a second or third year in the same language. It’s best to avoid asking him to learn another language.
  • If the team hires a younger ‘bright mind’ at OC, we’re seeing with Minter’s ascension now that it probably won’t last for long. Maybe worth it if you can win the Super Bowl in that one year, but if you don’t win it, your OC is gone (for a HC role elsewhere) and it’s onto (yet another) OC.
  • Can G-Ro become someone like Josh McDaniels? Maybe not the best playcaller ever but one who works well with the QB and, over time, still achieves major success because the QB is a stud? I could see it.

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Buck Melanoma
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@tau837 It would seem that Harbaugh is satisfied. In his post-game presser he talked about how the win was due to “complementary” football. Uhhh, what? The only complementary thing the offense added was the successful 2 point conversion, which he harped on.

 

I’m pleased with the overall product and the coaching in general. I just hope they don’t waste good years of Herbert’s career making him a game manager. He’s far too dynamic to see that happen.

 

This next off-season will be key. Another draft and not handcuffed by cap concerns. Let’s see what that brings. I’m optimistic for the roster building. Less so about Roman as OC. That was a concern for me when announced and remains one.

 

Tau, I’ll be looking forward to your foray into the upcoming season’s cap situation and roster building recommendations.


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Buck Melanoma
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@alisterlloyd inside pressure and good containment by Atlanta’s DL plus no one not named McConkey getting any separation.


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