We’ve just released Episode 142 of the Thunder Down Under Chargers Podcast.

Our synopsis is below:

For a third consecutive free agency, the Chargers have had a deathly quiet start to proceedings and fans have seriously had enough! Armed with the most cap space in the NFL, GM Joe Hortiz has adopted a cautious, targeted approach, staying true to his Baltimore origins. Big names like Odafe Oweh and Zion Johnson have departed. Lesser-known names like Charlie Kolar, Alec Ingold and Cole Strange have arrived. Are these shrewd football decisions by the Bolts’ top man or is it simply parsimonious tosh?! Is he the best or is he the worst GM in the League?! In this binary era of football discourse, is it possible to be anything in between? We discuss it all on TDU. Don’t miss it!”

You can also listen on Spotify below (or download on audio wherever you like to listen to podcasts):

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Hope you enjoy the episode! Thanks so much for listening 🙂

Alister (@TDU_Alister)

AL
TDU_Alister

Long time team fan, podcaster (with Thunder Down Under Chargers Podcast), husband to a beautiful wife, friend to all fellow Chargers fanatics, and father-to-be!

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Erick V
Erick V(@erick-v)
1 day ago

I listened to the show today and the “just the tip” line was hilarious. Bravo. So many locker room humor softballs in this episode. I loved it.

I am one of those fans that are annoyed with the direction of FA so far. I agree 100% with Tau’s synopsis, that free agency is a resource tool to improve the team. This repeated lack of spending on some higher to even moderately priced FA talent and instead shopping in the clearance rack has created the 32nd ranked offensive line unit in the league and has us benefitting with ZERO comp picks this season as a result of cap and contract management previously. So far, the strategy he is beholden to is failing on both fronts.

Another point I am surprised that you guys didn’t bring up is that if this phobia that is paralyzing Hortiz in FA is going to be the standard mode of operation, than he has done a terrible job in the draft being able to adequately fill out the unit with his beloved picks. He can’t have it both ways. If he isn’t going to use his most coveted resource, the draft, to bring in optimal talent for the team, then he must use free agency to do so. And might I add, his lack in the draft and free agency at addressing OL and Edge forced him to cough up his coveted picks just to improve enough in both areas last season to function.

I also think this Harbaugh “smashmouth trench football”, “offensive linemen are tip of the spear weapons” thing they preach is a bunch of bullshit. How can we perceive it otherwise? How are we expected to continue to believe this facade that protecting Justin Herbert is the top priority when in three off seasons the team has used one premium asset on the OL? The scheme can only do so much. Tua was one hit from becoming a vegetable in this scheme and Purdy misses multiple games every year with injuries, and those IOLs were arguably better than anything we have fielded or have on paper to field. This scheme isn’t some magic elixir that somehow has the ability to escape the inherent violent nature of the sport. Putting to much belief that the success of this scheme alone is independent to the talent level of people playing in it is a fool’s errand IMO.

Free agency winners for me:

Raiders- The amount they spent in free agency isn’t what most responsible front offices do, but they had to do it to at least be a credible team on the field. They probably aren’t a playoff team yet, but they will at least look like an NFL team on the field. Plus, what better way to help a rookie QB along than with a Pro Bowl Center?

Jets- Again the trades and spending to bring in real NFL level talent was a must for this regime with their jobs on the line. They actually have adequate talent at QB and defense to not be a complete laughingstock. That’s about the best this franchise can hope for at this point.

Daniel Jones Agent- Talk about having a horse shoe up your ass!! This guy has his free agency for two dysfunctional franchises at the perfect time to fleece them both for big contracts that will have his career earnings over 200M by 2028. Keep in mind that Rivers is at 244M and Eli is at 252M. Who says you need to be good to get paid??

Miami’s new HC and GM- By having to eat the shit sandwich of Tua’s contract upon his release to the tune of 99M, they can use that crutch to carry them for at least 4 seasons regardless of their record.

Trey Hendrickson- Somehow got a bag at age 32 after another injury shortened season due to core muscle surgery and stays in division to spit hot fire against the Bengals twice a year with Minter.

Losers:

Baltimore Ravens Organization- Total chicken shit move backing out of the deal once they realized they could sign Hendrickson for comparable $ and get their picks back. Of course Crosby’s physical was going to fail, he only had surgery in early January.

JJ McCarthy- The Kyler Murray signing is the end of the road for JJ in Minnesota as far as being viewed as the franchise QB.

Washington Commanders- Their miracle run to the NFC Championship in Jayden Daniel’s rookie year is causing the team to believe it was more than just a mirage as the dump a ton of free agent dollars on an aging roster.

Indianapolis Colts- The colossal mistake of drafting of Anthony Richardson is still bearing fruit by forcing them to overpay for Daniel Jones even coming off of an Achilles tear. Compound that with trading away two first round picks for Sauce Gardner and we have all the makings of at least a 3rd place AFCS team. But at least they have a female owner with a headset on the sidelines during the games. What could go wrong?  🙄 

Great listen as always. Looking forward to the cross over with GAC and the draft primer episodes.

BTW, Alister I loved the little YouTube short discussing the free agency. Good stuff.

Last edited 1 day ago by Erick V
Tau837
Tau837(@tau837)
Reply to  Erick V
1 day ago

Of course Crosby’s physical was going to fail, he only had surgery in early January.

I heard the Check the Mic guys talking about this and found their take to be credible. They specifically pointed out, this is not about the short term recovery from that surgery… it is about the Ravens medical staff’s determination that his long term health carries enough risk that the front office decided to rescind.

They pointed out that the term “failed physical” is really a poor label, because there is no set of tests that yield a binary pass/fail outcome. It is more about an assessment of the player’s health for the duration of time he is expected to be under contract.

I’m not here to defend the Ravens, but I think those that believe this was complete bad faith behavior on their part are basing that on assumptions that cannot be substantiated.

Blue Beers
Blue Beers(@blue-beers)
Reply to  Tau837
17 hours ago

Agree completely with this. Most likely thing that happened is the Raiders provided his scans from a couple of months ago. Ravens took new scans at his physical and got worried.

Blue Beers
Blue Beers(@blue-beers)
Reply to  Erick V
17 hours ago

Understand that you are upset about the way FA has gone but this is a bullshit comment. My wife and daughters would not take kindly to this:

But at least they have a female owner with a headset on the sidelines during the games. What could go wrong?

Erick V
Erick V(@erick-v)
Reply to  Blue Beers
15 hours ago

I am not trying to offend anyone brother, but if you don’t think it looks ridiculous, be it a male or female, I disagree. What could she or any other owner outside of Jerry Jones glean from listening to the play calls and communications during the game? Did it really help? Why does she need to do it as a spectacle standing on the sideline? She can’t do it more discreetly in a booth or box? We see injured players with ear pieces in the box all the time. She might as well be listening to Mandarin language podcast in the headphones. I have sat in that booth with headphones during games in college, and I couldn’t even understand everything being said by former pro players who were coaches.

Blue Beers
Blue Beers(@blue-beers)
Reply to  Erick V
15 hours ago

Just say owner then. I agree with your point that it doesn’t need to be a spectacle, but doesn’t matter if male or female.

Tau837
Tau837(@tau837)
1 day ago

Listened this morning and enjoyed the show.

Enjoyed use of the irascible term to start. Do you spell villain differently in Australia?  😉 

Al said fans associate “all in” as going “all in in free agency.” I would frame it a bit differently. I would say it is maximizing available resources to put the most competitive team on the field; that overlaps largely with going all in in free agency, but it could also mean trades. It could also mean overpaying your own known commodity players, above your ideal threshold… like Poona and Oweh.

It isn’t ideal to overpay a player like Oweh, if that is how Hortiz would see that contract. But it would have definitely helped the team on the field and meant the Chargers would not have to devote a high pick to Edge in the draft, which is beneficial.

Not using a huge amount of cap space available to the team is not maximizing resources, and it is hard to see how the team is going to do that now. That is my primary disappointment so far.

Jack brought up deals being back loaded. I doubt the back loading creates a problem with closing deals. I believe what matters most to players about contract structure is (a) guarantees and (b) the signing bonus component of the guarantees, since that is money to the player up front.

I think this focus on compensatory picks is far too extreme. Yes, they can be used to draft good players and/or to facilitate trades. But it is imperative for the GM to set up the situation to make it easier to prioritize comp picks without compromising other decision making. Hortiz didn’t do that. He set up their roster and contracts (e.g., many one year contracts) such that the Chargers had top of league cap space while allowing Zion and Oweh to walk.He is in the process of showing that you can’t shop solely in the bargain/surplus value area of free agency and effectively maximize use of that much cap space.

Grades:

Edge Mack A – easy call to re-sign, especially letting Oweh walkIDL Tart A- – another easy call to re-sign, but A- instead of A because of unexpectedly high contract valueFB Ingold A – nobrainerTE Kolar A- – great fit for McDaniel’s offense, and the Chargers needed a strong blocking TE; this would be an A if the contract value was a bit lowerOL Penning B – the Chargers needed so many OL, and Penning should be better in McDaniel’s schemeG Strange B+ – you already know my rationale; I think he will be a steal at his price considering the rest of the guard marketRB Mitchell C- – he has never even been a consistent RB2 before and has struggled to stay healthy, but they gave him a contract arguably better than the one they have Najee last year; and even if he stays healthy, if Hampton and Vidal also stay healthy, I doubt Mitchell will get more than 5 touches/game on offenseC Biadasz A – desperately needed a center upgrade and got one for reasonable valueOL Pipkins C – solid swing tackle, weak starter, has had a hard time staying healthy; but, again, the Chargers needed depth and he wasn’t expensiveIDL Tomlinson C – older and coming off career worst season, so needs to rebound to justify relatively high contract valueLB Phillips A- – another easy call to re-sign, but A- instead of A because of unexpectedly high contract valueLB Perryman C- – I don’t think they needed him, but at least he was cheapCB Leonard A – another easy call to re-sign at a low priceLS Harris A – nobrainer
Overall, this is a pretty good report card. But if I graded the moves not made, i.e., graded effectiveness of the use of available cap space, right now I would give that a D-. I hope Hortiz has a plan that will improve this grade.

Thanks for the effort you guys put into this.

Last edited 1 day ago by Tau837
Tau837
Tau837(@tau837)
Reply to  Tau837
1 day ago

Reposting the grades since the formatting disappeared and made them difficult to read.  Kyle DeDiminicantanio this still another formatting issue. Posting with bullets looks fine when writing the post, but sometimes the bullets disappear and the text all runs together. I don’t know why it happens. I just won’t use bullets here.

Grades:

Edge Mack A – easy call to re-sign, especially letting Oweh walk

IDL Tart A- – another easy call to re-sign, but A- instead of A because of unexpectedly high contract value

FB Ingold A – nobrainer

TE Kolar A- – great fit for McDaniel’s offense, and the Chargers needed a strong blocking TE; this would be an A if the contract value was a bit lower

OL Penning B – the Chargers needed so many OL, and Penning should be better in McDaniel’s scheme

G Strange B+ – you already know my rationale; I think he will be a steal at his price considering the rest of the guard market

RB Mitchell C- – he has never even been a consistent RB2 on the depth chart before and has struggled to stay healthy, but they gave him a contract arguably better than the one they have Najee last year; and even if he stays healthy, if Hampton and Vidal also stay healthy, I doubt Mitchell will get more than 5 touches/game on offense; I wish he could return punts

C Biadasz A – desperately needed a center upgrade and got one for reasonable value

OL Pipkins C – solid swing tackle, weak starter, has had a hard time staying healthy; but, again, the Chargers needed depth and he wasn’t expensive

IDL Tomlinson C – older and coming off career worst season, so needs to rebound to justify relatively high contract value

LB Phillips A- – another easy call to re-sign, but A- instead of A because of unexpectedly high contract value

LB Perryman C- – I don’t think they needed him, but at least he was cheap

CB Leonard A – another easy call to re-sign at a low price

LS Harris A – nobrainer

Overall, this is a pretty good report card. But if I graded the moves not made, i.e., graded effectiveness of the use of available cap space, right now I would give that a D-. I hope Hortiz has a plan that will improve this grade.

Tau837
Tau837(@tau837)
Reply to  TDU_Alister
1 day ago

Can I put the challenge to you that I did to our listeners? Tell me a couple of specific deals this year you think we should’ve signed and make the numbers work (ie, tell me the deals we signed you would now undo as a result).

I did that in my second offseason roster post, in which I showed a possible path to a complete 53 man roster that included these choices (avoiding bullets again):

(Already had signed Biadasz and Tart and released Becton and Dissly.)

Let these players go in free agency: LG Zion, RB Harris, FB/IDL Matlock, TE Conklin, TE Fisk, OL James, OL Pipkins, OL Deculus, OL Hart, OL Salyer, IDL Ogbonnia, LB Perryman.

Release Edge Dupree.

Exend contracts for Edge Tuli and DB James.

Decline 5th year option for WR Johnston.

Sign G Vera-Tucker – I assumed $12.8M APY; he got $14M APY.

Sign G Seumalo – I assumed $9.6M APY; he got $10.5M APY.

Sign WR Shaheed – I assumed $14.1M APY; he got $17M APY.

Sign RB Gainwell – I assumed $4M APY; he got $7M APY.

Sign FB Ingold – I assumed $3.33M; he got $3.75M APY.

Sign TE Smith – I assumed $7.3M APY.

Sign TE Kolar – I assumed 1 year, $1.66M; he got $8.1M APY.

Re-sign Edge Oweh – I assumed $22M APY; he got $25M APY.

Re-sign IDL Hand – I assumed 1 year, $4M; he got $3M.

Re-sign WR Allen – I assumed 1 year, $6.8M.

Re-sign CB St-Juste – I assumed 1 year, $1.73M; he got $4.9M APY.

Re-sign RB Haskins – I assumed 1 year, $1.43M.

Re-sign OL Penning – I assumed 1 year, $2.5M; he got $3.5M.

Re-sign LB Phillips – I assumed 1 year at minimum salary of $1.2M; he got $3.75M APY.

Re-sign CB Leonard – I assumed 1 year, $1.215M; he got 1 year, $2M, though his cap hit will count less due to the vested veteran benefit.

Re-sign S Jefferson – I assumed 1 year for veteran minimum salary of $1.3M.

Re-sign QB Lance – I assumed 1 year, $1.4M; I assume a lot of his reported $6.5M is incentives he is unlikely to see, so not sure how far off I may have been.

Re-sign LS Harris – I assumed 1 year, $1.5M; he re-signed, but I haven’t seen contract details yet.

Draft IDL Caleb Banks from Florida at pick 22. This was before his foot injury was known.

Draft G Chase Bisontis from Texas A&M at pick 55.

Draft C Jake Slaughter from Florida at pick 86. I know you did not like this choice.

Draft T Austin Barber from Florida at pick 123.

Draft IDL Zxavian Harris from Mississippi at pick 203.

I may have missed something in that list, but I did put a lot of detail into it. I showed that all of this could be done from a cap perspective, based on the contract values I assumed, and some of those were not terribly close, though I was citing other sources and trying to be conservative. It was obviously a much more aggressive approach than could reasonably be expected from Hortiz.

That said, I will see if I can come up with a middle ground approach in between what I showed in that post and what Hortiz has done.

Blue Beers
Blue Beers(@blue-beers)
Reply to  Tau837
17 hours ago

I personally did not expect Oweh to come back. The only real offseason surprise to me is that they didn’t sign a bit more of a premium guard like Vera Tucker. That said, the more I’ve read about the system not placing high value on guards (and not just McDaniels but the other coaches from that same ilk), the less surprised I am with the way this turned out. Given how well McDaniels did with seemingly mediocre talent at the IOL over the years, I am going to trust that they know what they’re doing for now.

One thing I have learned over 30 years of football fandom is that one of the biggest mistakes a GM can make is paying big money to IOL that ultimately don’t fit well into the system. I.e. Orlando Franklin. It’s just not the position to spend big dollars long term and sometimes guys that were great in one system just don’t fit in another. I relate it to middle relief pitchers in baseball. You either bring them up in your system or you find cheap guys that you know you can make work.

Obviously they’re not done either, so will be interesting to see who else they add in FA. They’re going to end up signing at least another 5 veterans. I’m not expecting some big trade for a guy like AJ Brown though.

Tau837
Tau837(@tau837)
Reply to  TDU_Alister
4 hours ago

For a middle ground approach, I would stick with all of the same moves the team has made to this point and add these moves:

Sign LG Bitonio to a two year contract with an out after one. PFF projects him at 1 year, $4.5M. I will project 2 year, $10M with a $4M cap hit in 2026.

Sign TE Smith. When I first proposed the team sign him, I assumed it would be to Spotrac’s projection of a two year, $14.6M contract. I think that is probably higher than required, so here I will project a two year, $10M contract with an out after the first year and a $4M cap hit in 2026.

Re-sign WR Allen. As before, I will assume a one year, $6.8M contract.

Re-sign RB Haskins. As before, I will assume a one year, $1.43M contract.

Sign IDL Reader to a two year contract with an out after one. PFF projects him at 1 year, $4.5M. I will project 2 year, $9M with a $3.5M cap hit in 2026.

Sign Edge Clowney to a one year contract for $10M, which is what PFF projects.

Keep Edge Dupree until final cuts to ensure there is no injury in the position group; if not, release him, which will save $2.49M against the cap.

Re-sign S Jefferson to a one year contract for $4M, fully guaranteed. With all the cap space, they can afford to pay him more than they have been and guarantee it. This bumps Williamson out of my final 53 projection.

Extend the contracts for Derwin and Tuli as originally projected, clearing $4.6M in cap space.

Collectively, those moves would take the cap situation from $28.5M available to about $1.8M, not including the $5.7M for practice squad and practice squad activations, $7M for in season injuries, and $7M for preseason/in season trades.

This would result in this positional breakdown based on my assumed roster exclusions:

Offense (23)

QB (2) – Herbert, Lance
RB (4) – Hampton, Vidal, Mitchell, Haskins
FB (1) – Ingold
WR (6) – McConkey, Johnston, Harris, Allen, Lambert-Smith, Davis
TE (3) – Smith, Gadsden, Kolar
OL (7) – LT Alt, LG Bitonio, C Biadasz, RG Strange, RT Slater, OL Penning, OL Pipkins

Defense (24):

Edge (4) – Mack, Tuli, Clowney, Kennard
IDL (5) – Tart, Caldwell, Tomlinson, Reader, Eboigbe
LB (6) – Henley, Colson, Dye, Perryman, Wax, Phillips
CB (5) – Jackson, Still, Hart, Reed, Leonard
S (4) – James, Molden, Jefferson, Mickens

Special Teams (3):

PK (1) – Dicker
P (1) – Scott
LS (1) – Harris

If all 5 draft picks make the final roster, then 2 of these players cannot make it. Injuries might dictate, but those are unpredictable. So assuming full health, I assume Wax or Colson won’t make it. Hard to predict the other bump, but I will assume Davis will get replaced with a draft pick.

These moves largely open the draft up to go BPA and not worry about need. They could draft a first round IDL and keep 6. They could draft a first round Edge and keep 5. They could draft a guard early to learn behind and ultimately succeed Bitonio or Strange. They could draft a corner early. They could even draft a WR early, though I hope not.

That said, I would think they would use their draft picks to draft a guard, a backup center, and an outside CB for sure. I just stated above that maybe a WR would be drafted to replace Davis. My guess for the other draft pick would be IDL.

That is a really strong roster if the draft picks are good.

Thoughts?

Last edited 4 hours ago by Tau837
Tau837
Tau837(@tau837)
Reply to  TDU_Alister
1 day ago

What if the backloading of deals suggests the team is going to use that space to trade for AJ Brown post June 1 (Goedert is staying with the Eagles now). If that happens, will you feel that Hortiz has had a good offseason? Great offseason? Would pairing all the current ‘bargain’ moves with an AJ Brown acquisition (or Jalen Carter, just for argument’s sake) using some of that 2027 comp pick capital, make you feel differently?

I would absolutely feel differently if he used the cap space for a significant player acquired in a trade. I don’t personally want to trade for WR Brown, but absolutely yes on IDL Carter. That would be a home run, though I suppose it depends on what the trade price was.

And that latter comment is why I don’t see Hortiz doing it. He would almost certainly have to give up too much draft capital. I know some fans have a dream that the Chargers can trade a late pick plus Johnston for Brown, but I am skeptical that no other team in the league would make a better offer than that.

On Keaton Mitchell, I have to assume there was at least other team driving up his price. If that’s the case, I support the ‘aggressive’ decision to win that negotiation. When Keaton has been healthy, he’s been a guy Baltimore would give 8-9 carries per game. I think the fan base overvalues Vidal right now and I would have him as clear RB3 if Keaton is healthy. Vidal is a fun story and is good insurance for Hampton, if he goes down. Keaton is his own different beast with that 6.3 yard per carry across his career. Vidal has no business seeing the field (IMO) early in the season.

For the record, Mitchell has 9 career games with 8+ carries (max 11). That is in 3 seasons and 26 career games. Some of those 8+ carry games were great, some weren’t:

9/138/1
8/33/0
9/64/0
9/54/0
9/73/0
11/20/0
8/66/0
9/13/0
9/31/0

Those first 5 games were in 2023. Only the last 4 have occurred since 2023, and they are not as impressive: 37 carries for 130 rushing yards (3.5 ypc) and 0 rushing TDs.

I hope you are right, but I think fan expectations are likely too high.

FWIW, the GAC guys talked about this and predicted Vidal would remain RB2 and went into a list of reasons that I cannot fully remember. It basically came down to Mitchell being more explosive when he gets the right opening but Vidal being better at everything else.

Not saying I know enough to agree or disagree, I am much more concerned with his ability to stay healthy, and I also think it is a bit surprising that the Ravens had him for 3 seasons and could have kept him for less than the Chargers paid him and chose to let him walk.

On Tomlinson. This will be another test of our scouting evaluation process and coaching. If he blows up the 2025 season, I’ll never doubt a move Hortiz makes along the IDL again while Elston is the DL Coach. Jack’s right that Tomlinson’s more ‘talented’ than anybody Hortiz has brought in so far. His PFF Grades suggest he’s limping to the finish line of his caeer. If he returns to his Giants/Vikes form, this will be a total steal. Fingers crossed.

Agree with all of this. I will also point out that he has never played fewer than 555 snaps in a season in his NFL career, which is pretty impressive and valuable.

Blue Beers
Blue Beers(@blue-beers)
Reply to  Tau837
17 hours ago

Money talks. I think Mitchell will remain RB3 on paper but will get adequate opportunities and will also be the Kick returner. They’ll let Vidal walk in 2027 and Mitchell will be RB2. This is all in a no-injury vacuum of course, but that’s what they’re paying him for.