Hi Stormcloud!
It’s been only three weeks since the Chargers lost in the Wild Card Round but so much has happened! Some of it bittersweet (Coach Minter becoming the new Ravens HC) and some of it incredibly exciting: yes, that’s right #TDUCrew, former Dolphins HC Mike McDaniel will be calling the plays for Justin Herbert in 2026 as his new Offensive Coordinator!
The plan is to go LIVE with our buddies from the PowderKeg Podcast to discuss all the recent team news, share our 2025 Season Takeaways, and enjoy a lightning round of Q&A about the offseason ahead. Oh Chargers, every year you break our spirits, but then you go and TOTALLY REDEEM YOURSELVES in the offseason and suck us right back in!
Link to the episode is below (which will go live on YouTube this Saturday, 31 Jan at 3pm PST/6pm EST)
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Hope you enjoy the episode! Thanks so much for listening 🙂
Alister (@TDU_Alister)
Long time team fan, podcaster (with Thunder Down Under Chargers Podcast), husband to a beautiful wife, friend to all fellow Chargers fanatics, and father-to-be!
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Listened to most of the podcast live & re-listened during a freezing round of winter golf. A few comments.
Why am I not surprised by that story Kev! 😋
I’m hopeful that Hortiz will adopt a “targeted aggression” strategy in free agency: earmarking one or two “first wave” free agents like Linderbaum and then finding value elsewhere.
The interesting team-building question will be whether Hortiz views five draft picks as enough. He opted not to trade down last year. We almost got ourselves a third round compensatory pick for Assistant GM Chad Alexander but he didn’t get the nod for GM at the Dolphins or Giants (unfortunately). I don’t think they’ll trade QJ. Will they trade down from 1.22 this year? “It depends” is probably the answer.
I agree it depends. IMO if there is a 1.22 worthy guard available in their estimation (including potentially a college tackle to guard convert), they should stick and draft him. (Same for center, if they don’t sign Linderbaum or another veteran, but I assume there won’t be a 1.22 worthy center.)
If none of that pans out, agree with trading down.
I played around with a simulator this morning and was able to trade back several times and ended up with 7 picks, all in the top-100 (although the first was in the 40s). If the Chargers can swing something like that, I would be very excited.
They definitely need more picks.
I would like more picks but even more I would like the team to draft a starting guard. If there is one they like at 1.22, IMO they should take him, not trade down.
They need 3 new IOL starters. I don’t see them solving that without drafting at least one of them. I don’t see how you can count on that with an initial pick in the 40s.
And if they were comfortable not drafting OL at 1.22, then they should probably use that pick to draft a blue chip IDL.
I don’t disagree with this. Its important to remember that Zion was the 17th pick in the draft, so drafting a dude at 22 does not guarantee success.
The other question to answer is how they can best use their limited resources to fill holes. As you said, they need to replace every IOL position. They also need 2 edge players, a RB, TE, WR LB, IDL, etc… They have lots of cap space, but if they use it on Oweh and Mack (which they should), what’s left?
As I said, I don’t disagree with your point. I just think there’s a lot of moving pieces on the chess board. They have many of the pieces, but they also have a lot of work to do. I hope that Hortiz uses every tool in his toolbox.
I showed one way to fill every hole with more than $20M remaining in cap space. I realize I made a huge number of assumptions, and many won’t prove out, but it is clear to me that there are many ways to fill all needs with quality options without adding draft picks.
On Zion, while he has not reached the potential we hoped he would reach, he has been a 4 year starter. That is the bar, and I think they can meet that bar at 1.22.
And I don’t really think they need a LB…
I always enjoy your cap/roster off-season discussions. Good information.
LBs under contract for 2026:
If they don’t sign/draft someone, the starters are Henley and Dye? At minimum, they need one more player. That could be Phillips or Perryman coming back. That could be a draft pick. It does need to be someone as I don’t think you want to go into the season with just these 4 dudes.
You’re right. I should have noted that I expect them to re-sign Phillips. So I was thinking of him as part of the group when I wrote that.
IMO the team’s hope would be for Henley and Colson to be the two starters entering the season, with Dye as LB3, Wax as LB4, and Phillips as LB5 and special teams killer. They have to take the group through camp/preseason to know if that plan can come to fruition.
Something I have never heard from Tau before… 🙂
Agree with your points. They could add some depth and really need Colson to step up, but the room you outline should be reasonably cheap & perform well.
I agree this team needs to add another capable veteran body here. You cannot go into camp with your fingers crossed with Colson. By signing a Chenal, Tindal, Pratt or Malcolm Rodriguez type of player insulates you from a Colson flame out. It also creates competition for the final LB spot and forces Colson to earn it. This is a SB window season, we need to be as buttoned up at every position as we can. Having to much depth is never a bad thing.
I wanted Chenal in the draft.
😂 😆 
Tau837 that one made me chuckle
Sorry
I get a bad rap around here… I suppose I’ve earned it.
🙂
Listened to the podcast finally. Comments:
Agree 100% with Al saying the Chargers should make Linderbaum the highest paid center in the NFL and use their first round pick on a guard. YES! There should be no hesitation for the Chargers to sign him to a market resetting contract. $20M APY (which would be the top center contract APY as of today) is a nobrainer. Frankly, $25M is a nobrainer IMO. Whatever it takes.
Does having a CEO coach make it too difficult to make the Super Bowl? IMO it is possible to win with a CEO head coach like Harbaugh. What matters is the offensive, defensive, and special teams playcalling, it doesn’t matter if that playcalling comes from head coach or OC or DC or special teams coach. Frankly, IMO it seems logical that it would be better to have a “head coach of the offense” and a “head coach of the defense” while the head coach can put his energy into culture, organization, gameday decision-making, etc.
Surprised that given the question of what you want to improve on defense, Al said LB. I would absolutely hate it if the Chargers draft a LB. They have a final roster group already that includes Henley, Colson, Dye, Wax, and IMO likely Phillips. Are they already writing off Colson? If not, they don’t need to draft a LB IMO.
You guys can’t drive a stick? Crazy. All of my cars up until age 55 were manual. 🙂
Cheers mate.
Seriously, how much more excited are we all going to be about the future of this team if Tyler Linderbaum is the long-term Center. I salivate at the prospect.
I really enjoyed the “CEO Coach” discussion on the show and the various points the others made response. I’m like you when it comes to blanket statements, so I don’t think it’s ‘too difficult’ but the one concern I had in mind was:
I haven’t done the research into this but obviously the Patriots are in the Super Bowl this season with new schemes on both sides of the ball. But if the long-term data showed a correlation between deep playoff teams and established schemes, this might be one point against the CEO HC.
I thought the guys made some good points about the positives too. To me, the most interesting one was the ability for the CEO HC to handle media and also be a little more objective when things aren’t going well on one side of the ball. As you love pointing out, we saw how this proved difficult for Staley being the HC & DC jointly!
I think my answer to Ryan’s question about improving the defense was a product of (a) being put on the spot, and (b) there not being that much to improve on Defense (it being a Top 10 unit the past two seasons).
However, even with time now to reflect, other than saying it would be great to have an elite 3-tech or elite CB, I think improvement from our LB play is one area to strengthen the team. Most of the time when the Defense played poorly this season you could point to LB play being a key contributor.
I don’t know if the answer is to be found from internal improvement (eg, Colson returning), free agency, the Draft,or the new LB coach who’ll be coming in shortly!. But that group needs to play better.
Funny story. Andy’s first car was a “stick” (here, we just call it a ‘manual’) and I remember 18yo Andy stalling it so frequently with me in the passenger seat that I decided I wouldn’t get in it with him again 😂 I think it happened 3 times on one drive. We’d be at the traffic lights, he’s pumping Eminem out of the speakers at full volume. Next moment, silence and we’re slowly rolling backwards down the hill. He improved substantially over time. Bit like his TDU hosting career actually… 😁
That is hilarious!
This is interesting but also coordinator-specific. Year 1 of McDaniel is likely still better than year 2 of most OCs (e.g., Roman, Lombardi). Thus, as is so often the case, the answer is “it depends.”
Agree.
Also, Chris O’Leary is a new DC but, as he made clear in his presser this morning, there will be significant carryover from a terminological perspective. So does it really count as “Year 1” in that sense? I don’t think so.
I finally got to listening a few days ago. Kyle sounded like a sultry Kathleen Turner!!
On the CEO HC debate, I agree that it is probably not ideal because, if successful, the coordinators will be poached for other opportunities which makes hiring a successful replacement imperative and it’s only a matter of time that you make a bad hire which could torpedo multiple seasons. Also, it kind of makes you married to hiring someone from the same style in most cases because you do not have the ability to make wholesale changes to personnel. I think we are in a very unique situation with McDaniel because he is borderline over qualified as an OC and we have a franchise QB in place that has the talent to be scheme versatile.
Another good question raised was how far to we go to invest in players distinctly suited for McDaniel’s scheme knowing he might only be here a year or two? I would not go over the top tailoring the roster specifically for his scheme. If he would like a backup RB, FB, TE or WR to maybe match a characteristic he desires, then go get that guy, but I would not be drafting and signing core multi year players for his specific scheme. i have always been in the camp of just acquiring the best talent and have the coaches make it work with them and I believe MM will design the offense to what he has.
Great show again. It’s always fun watching you guys mix it up. Looking forward to the offseason content.
I absolutely think the team should draft/sign players who are particular fits for McDaniel’s offense. The objective is win the Super Bowl next February in SoFi, so ensuring best fits maximizes the chance of that success.
Worst case scenario, McDaniel excels and leaves for a head coach position next offseason. Having excelled with his scheme, it seems logical the team would replace him with another Shanahan tree OC, whether internal or external. That implies McDaniel fits would still be fits for the next OC.
100% agree. Also this isn’t even that relevant except for offensive linemen.
McDaniel doesn’t need a certain “type of receiver”. At the Niners he relied on Deebo and Kittle which was nothing at all like the personnel he relied on with the Dolphins. McDaniel is going to work with what he has.
I guess he also needs RBs who can catch, but anyone who they sign at RB is going to be a short term deal anyways.
Kathleen Turner is perfect hahahaha. Romancing The Salary Cap.
I could see McDaniel getting ‘his guy’ at FB (Alec Ingold, for example). TEs that are a little more suited to an outside zone heavy scheme. But then for the OL, I agree, ideally they are looking for scheme versatile players. It will be interesting to see what they do if Vega Ioane is available at 1.22. I’ve just finished watching his tape and I think his upside is tantalising. But there will be some who think he’s better suited at his size to more of a downhill run game. I would be in favour of drafting him and then, if necessary, pivoting to some more Duo to complement the stretch runs (like McVay has done with the Rams).
It would be quite foolish to hire a guy like McDaniels and not have a succession plan for when he leaves. By kicking Roman to the curb and hiring Mike, Harbaugh is committing to the Shanahan system. Part of Mike’s job has to be preparing his replacement.
I’m interested to see who joins the staff & if any of them look like the offensive O’Leary. Maybe Shane Day or Sanjay Lal? Maybe its a more junior guy like Jeff Carpenter?
These were the questions I prepared for Ryan, Jack, Andy & Kyle on yesterday’s show (didn’t get to all of them).
Pick a few Stormcloud, and let me have your thoughts?
Ryan:
o Under no circumstance, should the Chargers draft a CB or WR with Pick 22 in the 2026 NFL Draft even if one of those positions is Hortiz’s BPA.
o Bills fans need to pipe down, Jaquan McMillian’s play in Divisional Round was an INT
o What is your biggest pet peeve about how Defense is talked about by the media or fans.
o Fawlty Towers or Blackadder?
Jack:
o Tuli will become eligible for a contract extension in March, the Chargers should not extend him until he has shown that he can excel in a scheme that isn’t coordinated by Jesse Minter?
§ 124 pass rushers who rushed the passer at least 125 times in 2025 (per PFF)
§ Tuli had 13.0 sacks but his pass rush win rate of 12.3% ranked 50th of 125. Does he really have the juice to be paid like a #1 pass rusher?
§ Oweh’s was 16.2% which was 19th in the NFL.
o In the 2026 NFL Draft, the Chargers will take an off-ball linebacker with one of their first three picks
§ Chargers have picks in Rounds 1-4, (lost 5th round pick in trade for Oweh) and Round 6, (lost 7th round pick in trade for Molden)
o Popper & Alex Insdorf answered this one on Bolt Breakdowns this week. Over/Under 1.5, number of new “starters” on the Chargers OL next season.
o Stranger Things or Succession?
Andy:
o Zion’s market in FA will get too expensive and he will not be a Charger in 2026
o Derius Davis will not only retain his roster spot but will become an exciting playmaker on Offense under Mike McDaniel in 2026?
o In Wk 1 2026, the RB depth chart will not be Hampton RB1, Vidal RB2___
o Was Lee Harvey Oswald the sole shooter of JFK?
Kyle:
o The NFL has informed clubs that it is a projecting a 2026 salary cap increase from $279.2m to between $301-$305m. This news actually disadvantages the Chargers given the Spanos family’s approach to cash spending___
o The Chargers should shop QJ ahead of the 2026 NFL Draft, 5 drafts picks is not enough___
o Hortiz’s decision to extend Tart shows that he will be more aggressive with his cap space this year, and fans should expect bigger names to be targeted in this year’s FA than last year___
o Craps or Blackjack?
I hesitate to agree with blanket decisions. I agree today that the Chargers should not use pick 22 on WR or CB, but that is obviously premature.
Disagree completely that they should not extend him (i.e., IMO they should extend him). I think it is a given they will do so, as they should IMO.
I surely hope not. They have Henley, Colson, Dye, and Wax under contract. I would expect them to re-sign Phillips. IMO they have many draft needs greater than LB.
I don’t think so.
Thanks Tau!
Just to be clear on the Tuli one, I posited that one as a statement but it doesn’t necessarily reflect my own opinion.
Out of interest, what do you think a fair contract for his services looks like if they extend now?
I think:
I am very high on Tuli’s potential.
Only 28 other players have had 13 sacks in a regular season before age 24. If I cull it down to the past 25 seasons, it is just 11 other players:
Only 15 other players have had 26 career regular season sacks before age 24. If I cull it down to the past 25 seasons, it is just 11 other players:
That is really good company as a pass rusher. I know sacks is not the best metric, but I was limited to what the PFR finder supports.
On top of that, as you noted, he is a good run defender and good personality/teammate with good coachability. There don’t seem to be any cons, only pros. I think they might have lightning in a bottle here.
But extending him this offseason is extending him before he really has an elite breakout, so that should come with a bit of a discount. Hopefully.
Karlaftis’s contract is perhaps a good comparison; it is currently #15 in APY at $22M per year. IMO getting Tuli for that average per year would be good value. Getting him for less would be incredible value.
Great additional context, Tau.
If they do Tuli’s contract this offseason, I wonder how they will approach Oweh and Mack.
Oweh might be the one to let walk (back to Minter?) given the potential comp pick assistance + hasn’t been around that long to know if extending him long-term is a smart decision + has only shown he’s a productive Charger in one scheme (and the DC is no longer here).
IMO they should try to re-sign Oweh and Mack while also extending Tuli. They have the cap space to do it. I hope they will.
That scheme will continue for the most part. O’Leary will add a few wrinkles but Oweh’s role will remain the same. I think it makes sense to try pretty hard to keep him. He’s 27 and productive.
I don’t necessarily think so. He probably realized his mistake with Poona and wanted to hammer out a deal before FA and from the Baggie Day interview it seemed like Tart wanted to be back. I think Hortiz has really left the cupboard bare on OL and he needs to address almost the entire unit. With only 5 draft picks currently, he is going to have to spread that $ around to fill a lot of holes. I do think we get maybe 1 or 2 splash signings, but the rest will be cost effective additions.
I think Vidal cemented himself as a top 3 option at RB. But I don’t see the position addressed with a draft pick, so I would look to sign another capable vet that better fits the scheme and is someone MM likes. I do think getting another decent option at RB is a need. We saw what happened last year with the injuries and if Vidal didn’t pan out, who knows what that situation would have looked like. Not acquiring a 3rd RB that could step in could be an issue with injuries again.
I agree with this 100%. If the jewel of the offseason is Linderbaum and the team wants Oweh and Mack back, how many top of the market contracts do you think we can absorb while having enough to fill out the roster?
I don’t see this happening with only 5 picks and so many other positions that are bigger priorities. Assuming Phillips re-signs that gives us Henley, Dye, Wax and Colson. With Colson a complete wildcard and Wax and Phillips still developing players, I think this is a perfect spot for a cost effective vet to come in as some quality depth/rotational piece. Someone like Leo Chenal, Germaine Pratt, KJ Britt, or Jack Sanborn.
Craps 100%
I showed in my roster post that it is possible to sign all of Oweh, Mack, Linderbaum, and Zion, along with filling out the roster with good options and still having a lot of cap space remaining.
I was counting on Tart having a lower cap hit, but not by enough to matter here.
As of today, I expect them to re-sign Phillips and have 5 LBs make the final roster: Henley, Dye, Colson, Wax, Phillips. I don’t expect them to carry a 6th LB; Colson was on IR in 2025, which made room for Perryman, but he should be back, and I doubt they will move on from him. So I don’t see the need for either a draft pick or a “cost effective vet” at LB.
The Chargers could run the risk of rolling out those 5 LBs in 2026. The opportunity cost is:
I definitely saw ‘the need’ watching this year. We were let down badly by Henley/Perryman in more than half of the games, again, in my opinion.
I would want to be adding somebody new to the group, personally. But there is also a scenario where Henley has a career year in 2026, and Colson shows some of the talent he did in college. To me, that is a hope more than a plan. So if I were GM, I would do something more proactive.
I agree with the LB take. I think Colson was IR last year as a way of keeping him on the team without cutting him because he was not ready to play. I do not think it was injury related. If that is the case, how can we expect him to suddenly hit the field as a starter? Henley was good, but streaky. If he ever went down with an injury, are you confident rolling out a starting combination of the other 4? I am not. I think you bring in a vet even if you resign Phillips and let Colson, Wax and Phillips battle it out in camp. At the very least you have to make Colson really earn it. If we traded down I would 100% use a day 3 pick at LB. The initial class looks deepest there and at Edge.
I understand Tau’s perspective, I just think the ‘competitors welcome’ mantra demands them to add to that room heading into a season where internally they believe the Super Bowl is a realistic goal.
Imagine Demario Davis as LB1 (37yo but still a top 5 NFL LB, one of the best of his generation, and boasting an 88.9 Run Defense Grade last season), Henley as the LB2 (Will/Spy/Risk-taker/Playmaker), Colson as the developing LB3 (learning from Davis) and Dye/Wax/Phillips fighting for spots behind them as injury insurance and special teams support. Now that is a room I could get behind.
I could get behind that, too. But how much would Davis cost in cap hit? If not too much, great.
Fair enough.
The fact that the Chargers have the most expensive safety group in the league makes it necessary to sacrifice spending elsewhere on the roster, ideally in another defensive position group. IMO LB carries less positional value than every other defensive position group.
IMO: Edge > CB >> IDL > S >>> LB
I thought Wax and Phillips played well when they had opportunity, especially given their experience level. And I cannot believe the team would write off Colson, though I understand the “hope more than a plan” comment due to uncertainty.
I simply think they have to spent their finite resources on those other position groups and live with lesser LB play if necessary. The fact the Chargers are very strong at safety helps to make up some for weaker LBs.
IMO they have set up a perfect situation for Colson to be a boom/bust player. Given his ties to Harbaugh and that he was a 3rd round pick, it makes sense to me to give him a shot this year, and he either swims or sinks. If he sinks, next year is the year to add another LB.
The team cannot have a perfect answer to every position group. It must take risk in multiple places. This is a group that makes sense to be one of them IMO.
Thanks to everyone who joined today! I’ve updated the audio and video links above for the full show.
Enjoy the rest of your weekend!
Going LIVE in 1 hour!
See you soon Stormcloud 💟