My good buddy KevDiego (@kevdiego) posted this in a comment in another thread:
There has been clamoring for Keenan to be re-signed. The counter-argument is that he takes opportunities away from Ladd Thoughts? Keenan has always been a technician. Would be interesting to see what he could do in an offense that relies on technical execution. The downside is that Allen does not offer a lot of YAC and he dropped far too many balls in 2025.
I started to reply to his comment, but decided that this is a topic important enough for its own post. I have suggested re-signing him (e.g., in my post 2026 Roster Thoughts – Entering Offseason) but I haven’t really seen many other fans clamoring for it. I think most in this forum disagree with me.
On the subject of drops, PFF says he had 7 (regular and postseason) and says that is 7.7%. But he had 126 targets and 7/126 = 5.6%. 7/91 = 7.7%, so it appears they didn’t count 35 targets in their percentage calculation. Could he really have had 35/126 (~28%) targets from Herbert that were uncatchable?
Using the PFF data as is, though, consider the top 4 targets in 2025:
- Allen: 7 drops (7.7%), 12/25 (48%) contested targets caught
- Johnston: 4 drops (6.9%), 11/23 (47.8%) contested targets caught
- Ladd: 3 drops (4.2%), 3/14 (21.4%) contested targets caught
- Gadsden: 6 drops (10.3%), 8/12 (66.7%) contested targets caught
Allen doesn’t really jump out from that list as having a particularly bad performance in this area. I don’t really see Allen’s drops as being sufficient reason not to bring him back because I don’t think that issue offsets all of this:
- Best PFF receiving grade (76.1) on the team by a decent margin; Gadsden was #2 at 71.1.
- Best PFF offense grade (76.0) among all WRs and TEs on the team by an even bigger margin; Ladd was #2 at 66.9.
- Led the team with 51 receiving first downs; Ladd was #2 with 37.
- #3 on the team with 10 missed tackles forced on receptions; Ladd was #1 with 13 and Johnston was #2 with 12. I bet this one surprises some people.
- #2 on the team with 1.62 yards per route run; Gadsden was #1 at 1.44, and #3 was Johnston at 1.44. Big gap after Allen. I bet this one also surprises some people.
- He is an all-time Chargers great, fan favorite, Herbert favorite, and is good in the locker room.
I think many have the impression that Allen took a lot of slot snaps away from McConkey. Allen only lined up in the slot on 41.2% of his snaps. McConkey lined up in the slot on 64.8% of his snaps, compared to 69.3% in 2024. That is a fairly minimal impact. And, of course, this comes from the playcalling, so it is up to the coaching staff how that breaks down.
IMO the team needs no less than 4 quality WRs and 1 quality receiving TE. They have McConkey, Johnston, Harris, and Gadsden for sure, but that leaves them 1 WR short. I’m not including KLS because he showed that he needs a lot of improvement before he can be counted on. It is perhaps likely that KLS is WR5 and plays more special teams than offense. So they need one more WR.
The best reason for it not to be Allen is that some here viewed his film late in the season and in the playoff game and felt his play had really dropped off. Assuming that is true, it could be related to his usage at his age. In theory, the coaches could reduce his snap and route count and give more snaps to the other young WRs. But maybe that changes the value proposition of contract value vs. on field value.
I could see it going either way. I do think that McDaniel as OC makes it at least a bit less likely he will be back.
Thoughts?
I wouldn’t prioritise re-signing Keenan, but would certainly consider him if the price was reasonable at the back end of free agency.
Good post, Alister. On this:
I found this interesting enough to check splits at PFR, which shows (regular season only):
In 2024, Ladd had 32 targets on 3rd downs and 2 targets on 4th downs. He had 22 receptions for 247 yards (11.2 ypr, 7.7 ypt), 2 TDs, and 15 first downs on those targets.
In 2025, Ladd had 28 targets on 3rd downs and 1 target on 4th downs. He had 13 receptions for 168 yards (12.9 ypr, 5.8 ypt), 2 TDs, and 10 first downs on those targets.
So he had 5 fewer 3rd/4th down targets in 2025, but the real issue was that he was less productive with them. This data doesn’t tell us if it was a Herbert problem or a Ladd problem (or a Roman problem) or a mix.
Meanwhile, in 2025, Allen had 51 targets on 3rd downs and 1 target on 4th downs. He had 35 receptions for 380 yards (10.9 ypr, 7.3 ypt), 1 TD, and 30 first downs on those targets.
Allen obviously got more looks on 3rd and 4th downs in 2025 than Ladd did, but Ladd wasn’t down much from 2024. And Allen was more productive on them than Ladd in 2025. I mean, 30 first downs on 35 receptions and 52 targets is really strong. Are y’all sure you don’t want that back in 2026 for a Super Bowl run?
As for how Allen takes away from Ladd, even on 3rd downs, maybe it isn’t so much slot vs. wide but the specific routes…? Or maybe it is as simple as Herbert’s comfort level with Allen being greater…?
Very good data and analysis, Tua. More food for thought, for sure.
Tau – I look forward to your roster discussions every off-season. THANK YOU for putting them together!
A few additional points on Keenan:
If they sign him, they need to have an understanding with Keenan about the role he’s going to play in McDaniels offense. Allen then needs to play with an un-selfish, win a championship attitude. In his 13 NFL seasons, Keenan’s teams have made the playoffs 4 time and are 2-4 (with no more than 1 post-season victory in any season). This season is about the Chargers, not Keenan. If they have their playoff seed determined going into week 18, he’s sitting regardless of incentives. If he has zero targets in a game the Chargers win, he’s happy & celebrating.
Keenan the un-selfish vet mentor hungry for an opportunity to win a championship is someone I want on the team. Keenan looking to make all the incentives possible (to the detriment of the team) is not someone I want on the team.
The implication of this statement is that you think Allen did not play with an unselfish, “win a championship” attitude in the 2025 season (and maybe prior seasons). What makes you think that?
Is it just playing the final game to hit incentives? I’ve already made my stance clear about that, and it hasn’t changed. I’m not aware that he showed any negative or selfish behavior all season.
The implication here is that for Allen, his previous 13 seasons were about him, not his teams, and that contributed to those teams not making the playoffs more often and not winning more playoff games. If that isn’t what you mean, why write this? But if it is what you mean, based on what?
If the exact scenario repeats itself, the team should just give him the $1M to reward him for a great season without having to play the final game to earn it. They could have done that this year if they were terribly concerned about it… that $1M means a lot more to any player than it does to the Chargers. I honestly think the fans have been more opinionated about it than the coaching staff or front office.
What about his past behavior makes you think he wouldn’t? The fact that you felt compelled to write this implies that you think this would be a behavioral change for him.
He had 3 targets for 3 receptions for 22 yards in the win against Philly this year. Was he happy afterwards? I’m not aware that he said or did anything to show he wasn’t.
He had 3 targets for 1 reception for 17 yards in the loss to Houston this year. Was he unhappy afterwards that they lost? Or that he didn’t play better to help the team more? Or that he didn’t get more targets? Again, I’m not aware that he said or did anything that suggests selfish behavior rather than team first behavior.
I maintain that he did nothing this season to the detriment of the team. The majority of your post just trashes his character, and it is a false narrative IMO.
Denver, week 18.
Just pointing out that he is one of several vet players on the team that have had limited success in the playoffs. If he comes back, I want him to come with a “this is my chance to win a championship” attitude.
This sets a very bad precedent. Play the games to win. If you make incentives, great. If not, too bad. Nothing should distract from winning a championship. Maybe a solution would be to have playoff wins as the only incentive.
So you are going to judge Allen selfish based on a single game in which he competed because your opinion is he shouldn’t have.
Despite the fact that was one of 177 games he played over 13 seasons, including 162 for your favorite team, without any off field issues, holdouts, or other negative behavior.
Despite the fact that he has a strong reputation as a team leader and mentor to younger players.
Despite the fact that he is seemingly well liked and respected by coaches and teammates.
I’ll agree to disagree.
You’re making a binary decision on a nuanced topic. The question is not Keenan Allen is selfish Yes/No? The question is; can Keenan Allen be a positive, productive part of a 2026 championship team vs. other alternatives?
Playing in week 18 and taking 13 targets is selfish. The team went along with it, but it was selfish. I don’t think Mack would do that. If Keenan is on the team in 2026, I don’t want him playing in meaningless games in an attempt to make incentives if it puts future playoff games at risk.
If he can understand his role and embrace the quest for a championship, awesome. If he’s going to be sweating making incentives, pass.
You are the one making the binary decision, not me. I’m not the one who wrote that a single game he played (not didn’t play) out of 177 career games defines him as selfish. You wrote that.
I have no question that if Keenan is back, he will be a “positive, productive part of a 2026 championship team.” Zero doubt.
You are making assumptions. You don’t know that the team asked Keenan to sit. You assume that. Regardless, I disagree with you, as I have already made clear.
If the team re-signs him, they obviously have no concerns on this front. Just as they had no concerns when they signed him last season.
If the team feels like you and Alister do about week 18, they obviously won’t re-sign him.
When was the last time Keenan had 13 targets? The team was clearly focused on getting him paid, which is nice, I guess, but has fuck-all to do with winning a championship.
I didn’t mention this earlier, but I also don’t think you can ignore that he left the team in 2024 to chase $$$. I can’t blame him for that as players have a short period of time to make their money. But that can’t be his attitude in 2026.
I want a team where every team member is 1000% focused on winning a championship. If that’s Keenan in 2026, great. If Keenan is chasing $$$ like he did in 2024, he can go play for the Bears or whoever is going to pay him.
The last time he had 13 targets was week 7 against the Colts (he actually had 14). And?
The team helped him achieve his incentive. The team clearly supported it. Glad you pointed that out.
He left because he refused to take a pay cut that would have amounted to several million dollars. He didn’t hold out or demand more money, he just wanted his contract to be honored, and ultimately it was. The only reason his cap hit was so high in the first place is because the team restructured his contract twice previously.
You are criticizing him for being selfish in this situation, but the team obviously didn’t see it that way or they would not have brought him back in 2025. Do you think Harbaugh and Hortiz are into signing players they perceive to be selfish? Or do you think they try to sign team players? I think the answer is obvious.
I already suggested that we should agree to disagree. You are not going to change my mind, and I’m obviously not going to change yours.
Yes, Keenan refused a pay cut that both Bosa and Mack accepted. If I were Allen, I would probably do the same thing. But, at some point in their career, successful athletes need to make decisions about their legacy vs. maximizing earnings.
With the increased salary cap, I think QJ is either extended or has his 5th year option picked up. With Ladd, QJ, Harris, & KLS, you have a young nucleus. Davis is also under contract. So, the Chargers have a choice:
In this scenario, I think I would rather have the younger receiving group.
I doubt they will pick up Johnston’s 5th year option. It is projected to be $18M for him, and it is fully guaranteed if picked up. That doesn’t mean they won’t sign him to a contract extension, I’m just skeptical they would commit that much to him in 2027.
But I think we’re talking about 2026, and he is under contract, so it doesn’t really matter.
The way I see it, the Chargers need 4 quality WRs and 1 quality receiving TE. For 2026, they have Ladd, Johnston, Harris, and Gadsden, but they are short 1 WR.
It could be Allen. If it isn’t, I hope they sign another veteran, like Rasheed Shaheed. Heck, they should do that and release/trade Davis, independent of what they do with Allen. Shaheed would seem to be a good fit for McDaniel’s offense, and he would
replaceupgrade Davis on special teams.Regardless, I hope they don’t use a draft pick on a WR. Hortiz has made 18 draft picks in his 2 Chargers drafts to date. Those picks included 5 WRs. That is enough for now. Unless they accumulate more picks, IMO the top 4 picks this year should all be used on OL and IDL, and the 5th pick should probably be a CB if there is a player they like available.
Kev/Tau,
Here are my thoughts on Keenan, his incentives, and his return.
Declining Johnston’s option doesn’t automatically mean he is gone in 2027.
And Tre Harris should be expected to be a starter in 2027 if not 2026.
Ladd is not going anywhere. He will get his extension, I’m sure, but he won’t be part of WR turnover.
These WRs are currently under contract for 2026: Ladd, Johnston, Harris, KLS, Davis. Barring injury, all of these guys except possibly Davis should be on the final roster.
They seem unlikely to keep more than 6 WRs on the final roster.
So unless Davis doesn’t make it, I don’t think both Allen and “another body” can make it.
I don’t want to re-litigate this from earlier conversations Erick, but the argument for ‘why not’ is (a) the All-22 from Wks 14-17 showed me a player slowing down the longer the season went on and struggling to create separation, (b) this was also the case in the Wild Card game where Keenan’s second half in particular was one of his worst of the year.
So it comes down to whether you think a whole week off his legs in Wk 18 at his age, might have been better preparation to be at his best in the Wild Card game. That is not a small issue. It’s a big issue.
But…it is unknown whether it would have made a difference. Tau has pointed out elsewhere that other than the “X” number of snaps from the Denver game he played there’s not much overall load difference. Intuitively, I think that if you gave someone the whole week off (including practices) their body should be feeling a bit better the following week. But I am not Keenan, and I know some athletes think time off actually weakens their body. So it is not a straightforward thing.
Personally, I thought Keenan’s comments to Kris Rhim during that week when asked whether he’d play showed that whether it was the right thing for his body or not never really crossed his mind. He wanted those incentives. But again, I’m not in his head to know that.
If I made $100k per year with my employer and after 15 years they wanted me to take a pay cut while another employer offered me $100k, I would probably feel the same was as Keenan.
But when we’re talking about $70m in career earnings it is a completely different scenario IMO. Then we are no longer talking about providing for families and all that palava. We’re talking purely about ego, self worth, intrinsic value and those things.
And when the organisation that helped make you a $70m player over a decade comes and asks you if you’d consider a pay cut in aid of a Super Bowl push then I think not everyone would have acted in the same way. In fact, we saw Mack and Bosa act in a different way (albeit not all restructures/pay cuts offered were the exact same).
But as we have seen, year one in the Harbaugh/Hortiz era was not a Super Bowl push. This year would be a different conversation. Could it be that the regime here wanted Keenan to get those incentives because they know they are not planning to have him back? Another thing we rarely take into consideration is the optics of it all. At the end of the day, maybe a teams willingness to let the players hit the incentives they are close to earning is a good look for the organization as a whole? Maybe this sort of thing makes a good impression on free agents and in dealing with agents themselves? I’m not saying it would be the sole reason a player chose to sign here, but maybe taking a little less with some incentives knowing the team won’t try to screw them out of it by sitting them is some sort of factor?
Nothing wrong with agreeing to disagree. The players are human. Ego and feelings come into effect whether it is over $100 or $100M. Maybe Keenan knew that $ he was owed was the last real bite of the apple he would receive, so he wasn’t willing to take a cut? Also, let’s remember that Keenan wouldn’t even be here unless Mike Williams retires, and he was still on the market late into FA. Maybe those incentives are the last $ he ever thinks he will earn on the field?
Just to probe this a bit:
Does this mean you expect Herbert to take a discount on his next contract? He has earned ~$156M so far, with another ~$162M due under his current contract.
Does this mean you expect Derwin to take a discount on his next contract extension, which will probably come this offseason? He has currently earned ~$80M with another ~$17.5M due in 2026.
Didn’t Brady take below-market contracts so the Pats/Bucs could build championship rosters? I don’t expect Justin to play for league-minimum, but I think it’s reasonable that he would do something team-friendly, especially if the team has success in the playoffs.
Same with Derwin.
It was reported that Brady took a discount. I’m not sure if he really took it without getting paid under the table in some manner. I don’t think of Belichick, Brady, and Kraft as the biggest rule followers in the league…
Right now, Kyle Hamilton is the top APY safety at $25.1M. I predict Derwin will get an extension this offseason that will be at a higher APY. I will be interested to see the reaction here.
Brady was one of the most well known and marketed players in the world. He made more $ off the field from endorsements and investments than he ever made on it. Can you remember one commercial Keenan Allen ever made? And it is not just a positional thing either as I have seen other WR like Randy Moss, Jerry Rice, Justin Jefferson, Davante Adams and others all commercially advertised, but never Keenan.
It’s not the same sport, but Ohtani took like 650M of his 700M contract deferred because he makes more $ off the field. When you get to a certain level, the sport contract is secondary, so it is impossible to compare Brady and Keenan.
Hmmm…that’s well put.
Maybe to differentiate further, I think it would have to be a similar sequence of events that would have to repeat itself for me to be critical of the player:
Heck I’d love a player who took a discount to keep being a Charger but it’s not a reasonable expectation generally I agree. I’m probably not sounding very persuasive on this topic. But there was just something unique about the way the Keenan situation played out that bothered me (leaving the Chargers just as Harbaugh arrived to join the Bears of all teams, and with others taking pay cuts) that made me question things. And then the Wk 18 incentive thing was just a second piece of evidence in the same ‘ball park’. But the comments of you and others have definitely influenced by thinking to point where I’m not quite as aggravated about it as I was. That’s the real benefit of this forum and hammering these things out.
Appreciate the discussion.
IMO the Keenan situation in the 2024 offseason is one that will prove to be unique. I don’t believe Hortiz, et al. will get themselves into that kind of cap challenge situation. So it is a one off. There is no way to really compare it to anything else.
You can say it can be comparable to Bosa taking a pay cut, but it’s not. Keenan was coming off arguably his best season. Bosa hadn’t been an impact player for a while.
You can say it can be comparable to Mack taking a pay cut, and that is fair. But that is a one player sample.
Moving on from that Allen situation, my interpretation of the things you have written is that if players like Derwin don’t take a discount, you would view him as selfish. Based on what you have written, you haven’t isolated this to players asked to take a pay cut. (Thinking back to the whole Australians value team players, Americans value maximizing compensation thing you posted.)
Am I off base here?
I think slightly off base.
One of the components I wrote above is public reporting that the team had asked the player (essentially as a favour/quid pro quo for long service) to accept less on the next deal for a stated reason (like cap issues/SB push).
If the team hasn’t ‘asked’ the player to take a discount, or at least I don’t know about the team asking, I’m not going to hold it against the player in the same way. It really was something unique about the situation in the 2024 offseason that rubbed me the wrong way.
How we’re conditioned in Australia has certainly influenced my thinking like I said. In the Australian Football League, it is more commonplace (albeit less so than in the past, to be fair, as Aussie players imitate US free agents more often nowaways) for a player to shun higher contract offers from multiple teams to stay with the team that drafted them, especially if they’re a veteran player (around the 10 year mark of their career). Being a “one club player” is valued, for whatever reason. Maybe our sport is more tribal, it being a smaller country and with fewer teams in the competition, who knows!
Thanks, Tau, this is something I hoped to discuss as well. I think it’s downright stupid to not want Keenan based on an illusory idea that he steals opportunities from Ladd. Ladd was injured and didn’t have the year some hoped he would have. He wasn’t getting separation on his routes. That’s not Keenan — Actually, thank God Keenan was there to be that go to guy on 3rd down.
If Keenan wants to play another season I believe he adds value to our WR room. Isn’t that what really matters? He doesn’t have to be the fast guy, but he certainly is a guy that got us a lot of 3rd down conversions.
It would be interesting to see what a player like Keenan could do in a McDaniels offense. Mike’s offenses are very technical (Ryan has a great article explaining the scheme). Not sure Mike has ever had a two receivers with the route-running ability of Allen and Ladd combined with a QB like Herbert.
To me, the argument against Keenan is that he’s not a YAC threat. In an offense designed to get playmakers the ball in space, Keenan may catch a lot of balls, but leave a lot of yards on the field. I would much rather see any other Charger receiver with the ball in their hands in space.
It will be interesting to see how McDaniels utilizes Davis & KLS – two guys with, if healthy, home run abilities. I’ve agreed with Tau over the last two years that Davis should not be on the team. However, if healthy (and only 4 receivers currently on the roster), Davis could have an impact. In each of the last two years, he’s made very difficult TD catches that were called back. If healthy, he’s dangerous in space and fast. I’m not going back on my position; if he’s not adding value on the offense, there’s no reason to keep him on the roster. However, if Mike can scheme him open in space, I think he can have 20+ catches for 300+ yards and 4+ TDs. That could get him a good contract as a FA (and the Chargers a comp pick). I would rather have that than nothing for cutting him. KLS could have the same impact, but with more time under contract and a studier frame. The camp battle will be important for Davis.
Allen averaged 2.9 YAC/rec this season. That is low, but the highest WRs on the team were Harris and McConkey, both at 4.7, not a huge difference.
I already pointed out that Allen was #2 in YPRR and #3 in MTF, despite not being a big YAC threat. With Allen, you trade YAC for first downs. There is a place for that.
It is also very possible that McDaniel’s offense will create better YAC opportunities for him if he is back.
I think judging YAC in a Roman offense where receivers are running into each other is not a good comparison. I will be shocked and disappointed if we see the same dysfunction this coming year. There will be better opportunities.
I think we can all agree that 34 year old Keenan is the worst YAC threat in the WR room.