Greg Roman came into this season with a black mark by his name thanks to combination of a dire ending to his time in Baltimore and a year away from the game after no team came calling in 2023. So needless to say when Jim Harbaugh named his old friend as the Bolts’ offensive coordinator, the general opinion ranged from disdain all the way to outright disappointment.
My personal opinion was that it was good to have an experienced play caller with a long standing relationship with the head coach who has created successful offenses based on something the Bolts desperately needed; a run game. I wasn’t excited by the hire but I was pleased to have a sense of stability in an area of the game that the Bolts have struggled with for well over a decade.
The problem Greg faced was that he had to turn an offensive roster that under Kellen Moore (27th in run rate) and Joe Lombardi (31st in run rate) were very much a pass-first, into road-grading maulers that could match the NFL’s shift towards the ground game returning to being king.
Between Joe Hortiz, Harbaugh and Roman they had to find a way to change a team that were a shotgun based pass first offense into an under center run first unit with minimal spending flexibility. Anyone who was expecting this to be an elite wide receiver or right tackle away was fooling themselves because this was always going to be approached with a long term view.
That said, it absolutely has to be better than what we saw on Sunday against the Atlanta Falcons because that was the worst offensive performance of the season.
Summarizing the problem
The main issue with building a team that is based on running the ball is that when it is longer working, you are faced with a decision: stick with it or start passing the ball. The Chargers’ run game started to deteriorate at the beginning of November after opposing defenses started to pick up on the gap run concepts Roman has built his empire on. At that time, Justin Herbert was absolutely tearing defenses apart so Greg, logically, gave his quarterback the ball and kept the run game up just enough to keep defenses honest.
The problem was that leaning into the success of Herbert’s arm masked the fact that the run game had become defective. Even with JK Dobbins healthy, it was his work after contact that made the bare numbers look respectable but in reality the slide towards being a non-threat was already happening. Defenses could just leave a light box, defend the Chargers’ passing weapons with 6 or more bodies and prosper.
These defenses challenged Herbert to be bold enough to hit tight window throws to receivers who couldn’t separate. He was getting away with this for a while but once Roman had exhausted his two-man half-field route combinations in the big games vs the Bengals and Ravens, that endeavor came to a screeching halt.
Ladd McConkey’s emergence as a man-coverage beater further masked the problems by winning on 3rd down in game critical moments. This showed up in the second half of the Ravens’ game and Atlanta could do little to stop the rookie from keeping the chains moving on those 3rd and long conversions. This was not and will not be a reliable factor especially if the exciting young receiver is carrying a number of injuries.
The Falcons game was a culmination of all the downward trending aspects of the offense, it all came to a nadir from which this team somehow needs to climb itself out of. We need to see what the problems are in order to project the best routes to finding success again so let’s break down the components of what is going wrong.
Ground game woes
Whilst Roman builds his run game on gap concepts, he runs a significant amount of zone runs that he uses to stop defensive fronts from cheating gaps. There are two issues at play here; the running backs we have healthy aren’t executing the concepts correctly and the line are struggling to create any rush lanes to allow for even mild success.
On the play above the Bolts are running outside zone where he is meant to read the gaps from outside to in to work out which has the best chance of opening up. However you can see how early Gus Edwards bails out of the read progression and cuts upfield before the blocking has even had a chance to develop.
Edwards’ struggle to run zone concepts is not new, against the Bengals he had a chance to cut early into a couple of half-open gaps but he was indecisive and ran into the back of his lineman. The problem here is that he isn’t fast enough to prevent the defensive front from two gapping and the offensive line isn’t doing a good enough job of getting their hips around to sustain their reach blocks.
JK Dobbins was making up for these issues with his burst, power and decisive reads but without him these issues are exposed for all to see. The gap scheme concepts are still working to a degree however Roman runs these out of heavy personnel with both Matlock and Fisk on the field. The play below was a good example of how these runs went to keep the Chargers on schedule. Joe Alt is put in position to maul someone and Gus reads this correctly to find the space for a nice gain.
However the fact the run game has to be from heavy personnel means that this offense is limited and teams, like the Cardinals and Falcons, are forcing the issue by stacking the box. Roman is therefore being put into positions he doesn’t want to be in and he is therefore relying on Herbert to be perfect as a countermeasure to the fact that the Bolts do not have the players to go into 10 or 11 personnel and win throwing the ball three downs in a row.
Route spacing issues
If these issues were plaguing Ben Johnson, Sean McVay or Liam Coen they have the cards in their decks to draw up something that would beat defenses who want to stack the box. Each of these offensive playcallers is able to stretch the field both horizontally to challenge man coverage and vertically to keep zone coverages honest whilst using route spacing to flood zones. Together these bilateral concepts create leverage windows for their quarterbacks to find within their progressions.
Greg Roman is not on par with those league leading play designers, not many guys are, however what he should be able to do at a minimum is create plays that leave Herbert with routes that are spaced out in way that will give him options at each level. Against the Falcons the passing concepts were atrocious, they not only failed to even get a flicker of a reaction from the secondary but they were either too tightly bunched, out of sync or a disastrous combination of both.
When you combine poor passing structure with receivers who cannot separate then you are in real trouble. I have defended Roman in the past by highlighting the fact that there are open passes to be made and this was still true on Sunday however this was not the primary issue. The predicament is with the route design and those who is putting on the field to run it.
I stated earlier that the run game is reliant on having heavy personnel on the field because of the lack of push the interior offensive line can create and this is where it hurts the team. Fisk and Matlock are running an obscene amount of routes, in fact if there was a metric for pounds per route run I think they’d be at the very top of it. This creates issues for the route spacing because if you have 285 lbs of man (at minimum) trying to set, block, then leak out, this is going to take far too long especially when they don’t have any ability to gain yards after the catch.
With Roman’s absolute refusal to run running back screens and their only viable pass catching back on injured reserve, this is a vital part of avoiding sacks. The Falcons exposed that failure, kept an extra man in the middle of the front to close off the central escape lanes and it led to them getting five sacks in one game in a season where they had ten total before that game.
Herbert’s trust
Herbert had his worst game since the Titans game in Week 10 but this was because of one simple fact; he no longer trusts anyone not named Ladd. Look at this screenshot below. I do not need to even show anymore context than this because Herbert is staring right through the slot’s vertical stem where he can see QJ breaking free down the sideline against Atlanta’s Cover 2.
This is a throw that has earned Herbert respect across the league because he hits it so early and confidently that you’d think he can see the future. Not here though. Justin turned this down in favor of looking for Tucker Fisk who was leaking out the back side, and he passed up on that open throw to try and climb the pocket only to be sacked yet again.
Too predictable
Raheem Morris and his staff had the whole bye week to plan for this game and they were very well prepared for what the challenges the Chargers presented them with. Their usual 3-4 Okie front was altered on 3rd downs to be either a 5-0 front with 2-man coverage behind it like the example below or a 5-1 Penny front with single high man. The Penny front was even altered so that the off ball linebacker worked as a spy effectively making it a 6 man pressure.
This is a bold choice because if anything was aimed at the middle of the field, it would have worked. However if you know your opponent well enough, you’ll have the confidence to know what they will never do. Morris knew the tight ends weren’t athletic enough to win isolated matchups against their secondary even with a leverage advantage and his arrogance was justified because Roman failed to dial up anything that would challenge this look.
So how does Roman get himself out of this bind. The lack of roster talent is something that has been known for a long time so that is no longer an excuse, it is time to go against your tendencies Greg. Here are some ways that I would go about it.
The Answers
Interior Screens:
I think Will Dissly’s injury is the main reason for the movement away from Roman’s early season success with tight end screens however it’s time to dust it off again even if Dissly isn’t healthy enough to run it. Stone Smartt is athletic enough to run them and has been seeing the field more and more each week.
I understand not running running back screens with Gus on the field but Vidal had 92 receptions in his time at Troy so why not see what the young man has to offer with the ball in his hands and our dynamic tackle duo leading the charge out in space.
Quick throws
Greg Roman does not use many shotgun formations when compared to the rest of the league and this has come at the cost of a sustainable quick passing game. Justin Herbert is currently has a time to throw of 2.96 seconds which ranks 33rd in the league, that is gifting the time for coverages to tighten up and provides defensive fronts with the time to get within range for pressures.
The team relies on under center play action to form a big part of their game plan however if Roman is forced into playing more light personnel then perhaps he should look to get the ball out of Herbert’s hands faster with some 3 step drop passes to push the defense back onto their heels. Even if this only gains a little bit of space it will help everything else.
Multi-directional route concepts
My biggest criticism of Roman’s passing game is that he seems to limit himself to one directional route concepts. He sticks to vertical routes way too much and it isn’t helping his receivers who aren’t separating.
When he does want to cross the field, Roman relies on Flood and mesh way too much to stretch the secondary and teams have just started keying off of the reads they present. I’d really want to see some route pairings that challenge both horizontal and vertical alignments at the same time.
Commit to the run
At the beginning of the season the offense was able to grind teams down by running the ball, playing for field position and trusting their defense to keep them close until they were able to break through. I would like to see a return to this philosophy because everything can be built up from here. Bring the linebackers closer to the line of scrimmage and help open things up. Even if it’s slow going, even if it takes more than one week, it will wear down how easily defenses are playing against this stagnant offense.
Another part of this equation is that Jamaree Salyer should replace Pipkins. It is time. There is no way he can be worse than what #79 is putting out there on tape every week. It’s frankly hard to watch just how often Pipkins throws himself off balance when even the slightest movement forces him to adjust his narrow base. He is on the floor more often than the ball carrier.
Lean into heavy formations
This was a tricky empty quad formation out of 03 personnel, which is a rare alignment to see, but the falcons just werenโt bothered by it, they sat in quarters and their secondary just waited to beat the routes from a reactive position even if theyโre out-leveraged. Even though this is well covered by athletes who are superior to the route runners, this almost works. Herbert throws a tight ball to the right read but a very well aimed hand bats this away at full extension.
That is not a play that will happen more than a few times a season so if I was Roman and a re-commitment to the run game is established then play designs like this will find more success.
Conclusion
Overall it’s beyond time to pull up and make some changes. The easy button stuff you had going at the mid season mark is long gone and the Falcons really showed a blueprint for how to play Roman’s offense in the current state they are in. Spag’s defense are always well prepared for divisional games and they’d have something drawn up to stop whatever the Chargers try to run if they stick to their plan over the past few weeks.
Change and counter measures are due so I’ll leave this with a question for Harbaugh, Roman and the rest of the offensive staff: If not now, when?
Ryan,
This is fantastic. It reminds me of being back in college watching the coaches tape from the previous game. Nothing worse than seeing a play come up on the screen with you highlighted. You had a 50/50 chance it was a play you were getting your ass chewed out for. I can vividly hear my DC’s voice saying “Let’s watch a play from the what the fuck are we doing department!!” Of course, there were a few “atta boy” plays sprinkled in, but the likelihood of getting one of those compared to the ass chewing ones wasn’t enough to want to see yourself on tape at all.
Your sentiment about the spacing and lack of screen and swing passes has been something a few of us have been crowing about for weeks on the game threads. Against the Bengals, the lack of any easy 4-5 yard completion plays were, IMO, the reason for the Bengals comeback. Not every play needs to be designed to go 10+ yards. Having a simple screen, swing or check down is like having a successful run. It moves the ball and keeps the clock rolling. Especially with Herbert’s mobility, where are the stretch boots and nakeds that can help the offense that is having trouble separating on their own by getting the defense to slide to one half of the field and also get Herbert out on the edge to make plays? Good coaches adjust the scheme to what they have. They just don’t throw their hands up and say they don’t have the personnel to e successful. The last few weeks, the power runs to the left have been pretty successful. Why not have a few pass plays off that concept to play off of that? Even if they aren’t huge gains, it puts another wrinkle on film to prepare for. As a former defensive player, there is nothing worse than being crippled on the field by overthinking abut the possibilities of every play. Knowing there could be boot action or a screen mixed in from that formation from watching film forces the defender to either stupidly say “fuck it” and commit to what he thinks the play is trying to blow it up, or waiting for the play to develop and announce exactly what it is. The caveat to that is that, the extra half second of hesitation is sometimes just enough to have the play blow by you and forces you to make the tackle after a big gain.
Another thing you mentioned from the breakdown, which I also commented on while watching the games, is that Gus has been noticeable slower all around than Dobbins. He does not have the burst, vision or elusiveness to regularly be able to quickly identify the holes and exploit them in zone runs. He seems to be much better in power, where he can follow his lineman to one side of the line and just plow ahead.
Anyway, I really enjoy these types of scheme breakdown articles. I am a nerd for this type of stuff. Looking forward to more of these.
Yet another great article Ryan!
I read this before the game. It’s so weird to see so few adjustments during a game or in between games from the offensive coaching staff. I really wonder what the reason is for keeping things the same when the results very clearly aren’t there.
I was watching the game yesterday and the contrast with Andy Reid was so big. At the end of the first half he basically already made the adjusment to spread everything out and go to quick game passes to neutralize the Chargers pass rush. It lead to their only TD and obviously made the difference in the game. Must be nice to have a coach like that.
Great read Ryan. Thank you for taking the time to do the research and put this together.
Amen. The first clip is a great example of this. Pipkins whiffs on his guy, almost falls down, then stands around watching football players play football. It also doesn’t help that Bozeman and Johnson fuck up their double-team. Just a poorly blocked play.
We had field-level seats for Sunday’s game (we were literally 15 feet behind the Chargers bench). When the offense was on the field, each defensive position coach was meeting with his players. They huddled around tablets. Every player (dressed for the game or not) was engaged. When the defense was on the field, the offensive players were standing around watching the game or sitting on the bench. Minimal in-game coaching. It was quite a contrast.
I don’t understand why someone with Mark Trestman’s resume can’t help Roman sort out his passing concepts. At the beginning of the season, Mark (and Hardwick) were my two favorite offensive coaching hires. I thought Roman would bring a successful running game and Trestman would design the passing game. I was excited to see what the coach that led mid-QBs like Scott Mitchell, Rich Gannon and Jake Plummer to career years could do with a talent like Herbert. Not sure where the dysfunction lies, but, as you rightly point out, the route concepts suck. With the limited WR talent (and 2 WRs on the roster that can’t play the position at an NFL level), the coaching needs to be great. Right now, it is not.
Final point, every time the team ran out it’s jumbo package, every person in the stadium knew exactly what the Chargers were going to do. I fucking hate that package, especially when Haskins is the RB.