We’ve just released Episode 112 of the Thunder Down Under Chargers Podcast.
Our synopsis for Episode 112 is below:
The 2025 NFL Draft is officially in the books, and the Los Angeles Chargers have added 9 new rookies to the squad! In this episode, we break down the entire Chargers 2025 draft class, analyse each pick, and discuss how they fit into Jim Harbaugh’s vision for the team.
We’ll give out draft grades, spotlight our biggest steals and surprises, and dive into which teams won (and lost) the weekend across the NFL. Whether you’re a die-hard #BoltFam member or just following your team’s rivals, you won’t want to miss this full recap of an action-packed draft! Don’t miss it!
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Alister (@TDU_Alister)
Long time team fan, podcaster (with Thunder Down Under Chargers Podcast), husband to a beautiful wife, friend to all fellow Chargers fanatics, and father-to-be!
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Already listed Kenard and Gadsden as my 2 value picks. Seems Popper agrees regarding Gadsden.
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6329917/2025/05/05/nfl-draft-best-value-picks-shedeur-sanders-2025/?campaign=13432614&source=athletic_targeted_email&userId=12566676
Great podcast – Appreciate the time you guys put into this. Jack, the personalized musical player introductions…Awesome mate!
On Hampton:
Tre Harris & Dre Lambert-Smith:
Caldwell:
Kennard:
Gadsden:
Branson Taylor:
Bridges/Mickens:
Sorry for not being very engaged. Our company is growing like crazy and I’m the single point of failure on far to many fronts. Hope to hire some reinforcements before the season starts.
@kevdiego
This is an interesting point I have not seen mentioned anywhere, but I don’t know if it is valid.
The Steelers declined Harris’s 5th year option for 2025. His option would have been for $6.79M. His cap hit in 2024 was $4.15M. That doesn’t really strike me as an unaffordable increase. I speculate it was more about the fact that the Steelers felt his level of performance was replaceable at lower cost, perhaps combined with concern that his workload will inevitably catch up to him and his durability will not continue.
Meanwhile, the Chargers exercised Slater’s 5th year option for 2025 for $19.04M. His cap hit in 2024 was $5.29M. Slater deserved that significant increase and deserves the top of market extension he is going to get.
According to OverTheCap, had the Chargers exercised Zion’s 5th year option, it would have been for $17.56M. I agree with their decision not to do that, because it would have been a big increase for an underperforming player.
I haven’t given this much thought, but these data points seem to make the case that a RB 5th year option is more affordable than other positions… and that seems like a positive, not a negative.
I disagree on Johnston.
First of all, all first round draft pick rookie contracts have been fully guaranteed since the 2022 NFL draft. So citing an example from before that is not a valid comparison.
Second, the Eagles didn’t cut Reagor, they traded him to Minnesota in August 2022 for a 2023 7th and 2024 4th. They took a $1.8M dead money cap hit in both 2022 and 2023.
Johnston’s contract is fully guaranteed. Per Spotrac:
If the Chargers cut him after June 1, they will incur a 2025 dead cap hit of $6.55M and a 2026 dead cap hit of $1.83M.
If they instead trade him after June 1, they will incur a $1.83M dead cap hit in both 2025 and 2026.
If the Chargers are determined to move on from him, a trade might make sense, if some other team is willing to give enough value for him. I don’t think a 7th or even 6th round pick is enough.
IMO it makes more sense to keep him at least one more season. Johnston was a consensus first round pick in 2023. There are valid reasons for that.
Johnston’s PFF receiving grade last season ranked #69 out of 158 WRs with at least 10 targets. That is not terrible, it is roughly average. On the Chargers, his grade was better than Reagor’s and Chark’s and effectively the same as Palmer’s (Palmer 68.3 vs. Johnson 68.2).
He improved last season. With Williams and Harris now on the roster, he can take his snaps in 2025 at Z and hopefully run different routes that are better suited to his skill set.
I can’t see any basis to believe Reagor should and will beat out Johnston for the last WR spot on the final roster. Unless due to serious injury to Johnston.
I think McConkey, Williams, Harris, Lambert-Smith, Johnton, and Davis will all make the final 53 man roster barring injuries, as they should.
I can’t see McLellan making it unless due to one or more serious injuries to others ahead of him.
I can’t see the Chargers keeping 10 OL, I think it will have to be 9 due to roster needs at other positions.
He would have to beat out James, Salyer, Taylor, or Pipkins. So which one of those guys do you see not making the roster in order for McLellan to make it?
As I have mentioned in the past, there is nothing to like about him as a NFL level player. His college experience was FCS, and his RAS is poor for everything other than size. Poor strength, poor agility, poor explosiveness, short arms.
I don’t believe he is capable of stepping into a heavy snaps role in the event of injuries and performing at close to an acceptable level.
It would be great if he proves me wrong, since that would imply a OL upgrade, but that would surprise me a lot.
On the first round pick selection: It was pointed out that exercising Zion’s 5th year option would make Johnson one of the highest paid interion lineman
The NFL considers “offensive lineman" a position. Picking an interior lineman in the first round means the 5th year option is going to be expensive.
On QJ, you are likely right. He is most likely on the team. However, unless the dude learns how to catch the football, his playing time this year is going way down and his roster spot will be at risk this year and next (and he will be gone in 2027).
My point on the linemen is that the team values size and strength. Size does not always equal playing strength (Pipkins is big, but strength has never been one of his playing strengths). I thought McLellan looked great last pre-season. When he injured his knee, the team kept him on IR, which tells me they see something they want to invest in. I’m eager to see what he looks like after spending a year with Ben Herbert.
As for Zion, per OTC his 5th year option would have projected to $17.56M. This year, that would rank as the #32 average salary among OL. Since it would have been for next year, that number will presumably drop down in that ranking.
If Zion’s play had been commensurate with his draft pick, I don’t think there would have been a problem exercising his 5YO; they could have exercised it and then worked out a contract extension so they did not have to actually incur the 5YO cap hit in 2026. The issue with him and reason for not exercising it is his play, not the cap hit.
So I guess I’m not following the logic for why the 5YO should affect a first round draft pick decision.
You in the Atlanta area?
We are a VERY small healthcare company that I’m trying to grow. We have very limited budgets. I end up doing a lot of shit because we don’t have funds to hire someone to do it.
We hopefully will have sufficient revenue to cover someone to help with leadership this fall. Right now, I need every available $ to hire & pay our (revenue generating) clinicians.
What made me laugh was your comment about ‘at least we didn’t trade up for Hampton". Very true 😆 Also a sad reflection of how low a bar Telesco set for our expectations as Charger fans. I guess it’s also good that Hampton was commensurate value for where he was drafted. I don’t think he was reach. If Hampton becomes an All Pro, I doubt I’ll think very much about the ‘trade that could have been’. Here’s to hoping.
On Kennard, I would still say that I’m a fan of the pick despite acknowledging his limitations because there were a decent number of people who viewed him as a Top 75 player. I get the Rumph comp, but I don’t think he’s Rumph. He’s not that weak and I think he has the frame to carry a heavier weight. Rumph never did. It’s time for Ben Herbert to work his magic!
Good luck with the company growth. Happy to hear it!
Round 7.40 (Pick 256) – Trikweze Bridges, CB (Florida)
Background:
24.6, 6’2½”, 196 pounds, 33 ¼” arms
Name pronounced TRY-Kwez.
Born in Lanett, Alabama.
Basketballer and Safety in high school.
Three-star recruit who spurned several SEC offers (including one from Alabama) to sign with Oregon.
Six seasons from 2019-2024 (one as a redshirt, and one pandemic shortened season):
Oregon (2019-2023), Florida (2024)
1,849 total snaps (19 DL, 238 Box, 151 FS, 82 Slot, 1,358 Cnr)
60 games, 120 tackles, 135 targets, 71 catches allowed, 838 yds, 5 TDs, 6 INTs, 12 PBUs, 65.6 Passer Rating allowed when targeted, 6 pressures
Justin Herbert’s teammate in 2019. Faced Ladd McConkey (and held his own) when Oregon played Georgia in 2022.
Doesn’t have much to say in interview.
2024 Stats:
659 total snaps (6 DL, 122 Box, 138 FS, 40 Slot, 353 CNR)
13 games, 35 targets, 14 catches allowed, 154 yds, 2 INTs, 29.9 Passer Rating allowed when targeted
70.4 Overall Grade
69.5 Coverage Grade
77.7 Run Defense Grade
16.0% Missed Tackle Rate (15.3% for career)
2025 Combine:
Not invited to NFL Combine
Pro Day testing (and ranking against Combine attendees):
4.45s 40-Yard Dash (T-13th of 25)
1.51s 10-Yard Split (T-6th of 25)
34.5” Vertical Jump (T-13th of 23)
10’7” Broad Jump (7th of 22)
7.02 3-Cone Drill (4th of 4)
4.39s 20-Yd Shuttle (5th of 5)
9.17 RAS (ranked 231 of 2,761 CBs from 1987 to 2025).
Tape:
Watched games v Georgia (2022), BYU (2022), Kentucky (2024), Miami (2024) and Tennessee (2024).
Summary:
Bridges is a tall, long and physical DB who mainly played as an Outside Man cover CB for Oregon from 2021-2023, but was also given opportunities at both Safety spots for the Florida Gators in 2024 before finishing the season, once again, as an outside CB. Although he never quite established himself as a consistent College-level starter on Defense, Bridges possesses intriguing tools to contribute to an NFL squad, at a minimum, as a strong Special Teamer. His tackling effort and closing speed from anywhere on the field is excellent and, although his instincts and technique in Zone are sometimes found wanting, he has the traits to be an effective DB in Man. His best position from the tape I watched may be Strong Safety.
Strengths:
Ideal size, physicality and length to play bump and run corner from press man.
Adequate make-up speed in trail technique when his initial jam at the line misses.
Shows coverage potential as a strong safety in Cover 3 Buzz and is an imposing presence when assisting with Run Defense in the Box.
Flips hips well for a larger corner.
Good tackler who goes out of his way to make them. Great trait for a DB to have and should also help him on Special Teams (performed solidly in this area during college).
Question Marks:
From press Man, his initial strike is sometimes inaccurate and allows a free release to the WR. Also not great at matching /mirroring routes.
From Off Man as a CB or Zone as a CB/Safety he can get caught out of position and/or be late to recognise and react to route combinations. Sometimes gets made to ‘baseball turn’ after reacting late to an assignment.
Short area quickness and change of direction skills aren’t a strength.
Not going to be able to defend pivot or option routes as a Nickel (examples on tape of him struggling with this v Tennessee (2024).
Playing style borders on being too aggressive.
He is generally susceptible to double-moves (eg, v Kentucky (2024)).
Round 6.38 (Pick 214) – R.J. Mickens, S (Clemson)
Background:
23.8, 6’0”, 199 pounds, 32 ¼” arms
Born in Southlake, Texas.
Father, Ray Mickens Sr, played 11 years in the NFL as a CB for the Jets (9 seasons), Browns and Patriots (3rd round pick, 1996-2006, 283 tackles, 6 sacks, 5 forced fumbles, 11 INTs, TD)
Played both sides of the ball in high school and caught 61 passes as a WR with Quinn Ewers as his QB.
Four-star recruit. 23rd ranked Safety in the 2020 recruiting class.
Committed to Clemson over Ohio State (and the multiple other offers he got).
Five seasons at Clemson from 2020-2024 (two as a starter):
2,186 total snaps (38 DL, 740 Box, 1,021 FS, 362 Slot, 22 CNR)
60 games, 148 tackles, 72 targets, 48 catches allowed, 292 yds, 2 TDs, 7 INTs, 7 PBUs, 13 pressures, 1 sack
Took advantage of the extra year of eligibility because of COVID and returned for a fifth season at Clemson.
Attended the East-West Shrine Bowl.
Engaging personality in interview and well-spoken. After listening to him talk about his football preparation (particularly watching tape), the intelligent way he plays on the field makes sense.
2024 Stats:
751 total snaps (3 DL, 312 Box, 338 FS, 88 Slot, 10 CNR)
13 games, 29 targets, 21 catches allowed, 100 yds, TDs, 2 INTs, 59.6 Passer Rating allowed when targeted
87.5 Overall Grade
89.9 Coverage Grade
69.2 Run Defense Grade
13.1% Missed Tackle Rate (10.00% for career)
2025 Combine:
4.49s 40-Yard Dash (T-8th of 15)
1.55s 10-Yard Split (T-11th of 15)
41.5” Vertical Jump (T-2nd of 15)
10’1” Broad Jump (10th of 12)
8.59 RAS (ranked 171 of 1,209 Safeties from 1987 to 2025).
Tape:
Watched games v Duke (2023), Florida State (2023) and Texas (2024).
Summary:
Mickens is a versatile and highly experienced Defensive Back who spent time playing a variety of coverages in Clemson’s Defense at both safety spots and occasionally as a nickel defender. He’s tall but with a moderate-sized frame and only average athleticism, so in the Box he can struggle to avoid blockers and tackle the RB. His best work comes in coverage where he uses well-developed instincts and efficient movement skills to close passing lanes from a variety of perches. His tackling technique is good in one-on-one situations with the ball carrier. Mickens may lack the overall traits to become an above-average starter on Defense, but his solid all-around game should allow him to see the field in sub-packages early in his NFL career.
Strengths:
Calm operator on the field. Whether he’s a deep center fielder, split safety or in the box manning up a TE, his movements are lithe and deliberate with neat footwork.
Reads the game well with good eyes and quick reactions whether it’s anticipating route combinations or charging into the box with immediacy to assist with run support. Plays like a student of the game.
Feisty in Man coverage within 10-15 yards of the line with good length and very impressive in Zone coverage. Comfortable using ‘catch technique’ and covering TEs from the Nickel.
Good tackling form in the open field if he doesn’t have to sift too much through traffic (eg, forced fumble v Duke (2023)).
Only 2 career penalties from 2,186 snaps (and none from 2023-2024). I thought he pushed the line though on grabbiness and will need to watch out in the NFL when 5 yards downfield.
Question Marks:
“Fast twitch” to close space is below average if he doesn’t see it early. Misses some PBU opportunities and is languid in coverage to the point of sometimes being caught flat-footed.
Frame is undersized for block take-on. Struggles to make tackles in the box consistently with some timid moments on tape. TEs too often wash him out of the play.
Not a standout sudden athlete. Coverage range is limited as a single-high and makes him better suited to a split safety system or playing the nickel.
Closer to being “Just a guy” than a playmaker at the position. Apart from the pick six v Texas in the College Football Playoff (which was more about being in the right place at the right time) he closed passing lanes more than he made plays on the ball or the ball carrier.
For a likely back-end-of-the-roster player, I didn’t see much that would indicate he can be a plus Special Teamer (and his college career ST PFF grades reflect that). However, he has a lot of experience on punt return coverage.
Round 6.23 (Pick 199) – Branson Taylor, OT (Pittsburgh)
Background:
23.2, 6’6”, 321 pounds, 32 ¾” arms
Born in Lorain, Ohio. Father passed away when Branson was 4 yo.
Played basketball throughout high school earning first-team all-county honours. Started playing OL as a junior in high school.
Three-star recruit. 40th ranked OT in the 2020 recruiting class.
Chose Pittsburgh because his mother is a diehard Steelers fan.
Graduated with a degree in law, criminal justice and society.
Unable to participate in any pre-draft all-star games because of a knee injury (left meniscus). Only played 6 games in 2024 as a result.
Five seasons at Pittsburgh from 2020-2024 (three as a starter):
45 games. 1,470 total snaps (6 sacks allowed, 7 hits, 20 hurries from 792 pass blocking reps).
1,228 snaps at Left Tackle.
217 snaps at Right Tackle
25 snaps as a 6th OL (in-line TE)
Mature and likable in interview. Loyalty is a big thing for him. Never thought about transferring from Pitt and patiently waited for three years before getting the chance to start for his last two seasons ultimately becoming a team captain in 2024.
2024 Stats:
6 games, 2 sacks allowed, 1 hit, 6 hurries (230 pass block reps)
57.9 Run Block Grade
76.4 Pass Block Grade
2025 Combine:
Didn’t test at the Combine. Not yet recovered from knee surgery.
Best Pro Day testing numbers were his 4.62s Short Shuttle and 7.40s 3-Cone Drill.
8.49 RAS (ranked 229 of 1,507 OTs from 1987 to 2025).
Tape:
Couldn’t source proper All-22 tape (only 9 snaps v West Virginia in 2022). Watched YouTube broadcast full game v Cincinnati (2024).
Summary:
Taylor is a likeable NFL Guard prospect who’s best-suited to a Gap-heavy run scheme given his impressive combination of height, width, strength and leg drive. He plays with a pugnacious attitude and solid anchor in pass protection, but his average athleticism, shorter arms and technical limitations make him a developmental back-up for the timebeing. If he can eliminate some weaknesses, he has a chance to be a useful OL depth piece by the end of his rookie contract.
Strengths:
Good size at 6’6” with a thick frame and powerful hands.
Strong enough to seal off the Edge player comfortably on Gap runs (front and back side).
Maintains leg drive as a run blocker and can displace defenders from their gap on zone blocks.
Grip strength is impressive. If he latches correctly in pass pro he will usually anchor down well and win the rep.
Shows solid awareness of pass blocking schemes and when he needs to execute two blocks on a play.
Evidence on tape of a “snatch-and-trap” win or two against overly aggressive rushers.
Plays with the right mentality for a Jim Harbaugh football player. Sprung open a 50 yd run with a key block executed while on his knees after falling over v Cincinnati (2024).
Question Marks:
Arm length is below the standard 33” NFL threshold and professional career probably hinges on being able to make the move inside to Guard.
Kickslide can be a little sluggish and he doesn’t gain adequate vertical depth off the snap leaving his outside shoulder vulnerable or, when he jump-cuts, susceptible to bull rush and inside counter opportunities.
Engages blocks in pass protection with excessive forward-lean reaching for initial contact.
A little slow to prime hands. There are run blocking reps where he tries to clear out the defender using his shoulder as a result.
Doesn’t always complete his assignment when asked to pull or block in space. Athleticism is adequate but target radar isn’t great.
Too many reps where he ends up on the ground (core strength issues).
Missed the second half of 2024 with a knee injury (meniscus tear).
Round 5.29 (Pick 165) <traded Picks 181 and 209 to the Eagles (both sixth-rounders) – Oronde Gadsden II, TE (Syracuse)
Background:
21.8, 6’5”, 243 pounds, 33 3/8” arms
Born Fort Lauderdale, Florida.
His father was an NFL WR with 3,252 career receiving yds playing with the Cowboys, Steelers and Dolphins.
Dan Marino was Gadsden II’s Pop Warner Offensive Coordinator. Jason Taylor was the DC.
Patrick Surtain (senior) was Gadsden II’s high school coach. Played on the same high school team as Patrick Surtain II, Tyson Campbell and Dallas Turner (went undefeated 14-0, won state championship).
Lettered in track with an 11.84s 100m.
Three-star recruit. 146th ranked WR in the 2021 recruiting class.
Collected 20+ scholarship offers but chose Syracuse (over Arizona State, Penn State and South Florida).
Four seasons at Syracuse (WR from 2021-2022; TE from 2023-2024)
36 games, 143 catches, 1,991 yds, 14 TDs.
Missed 4 games in 2021 with a groin injury.
Missed 11 games in 2023 with a right foot injury (Lisfranc).
Attended East-West Shrine Bowl.
Comes across in interview as a knowledgeable football enthusiast who’s grown up around the sport. Spoke about looking up to Keenan Allen as a route runner and had easy recall of the best players in the NFL when asked who he models his game after at the TE position.
2024 Stats:
13 games, 103 targets, 73 catches, 934 yds, 7 TDs
82.6 Receiving Grade
66.0 Run Block Grade
3.9% Drop Rate (4.7% for Career)
60.7% Contested Catch Rate (56.0% for Career)
5 Missed Tackles Forced (T-49th)
228 Deep Yards (5th)
100+ receiving yards in 5/13 games.
2025 Combine:
34” Vertical Jump (T-8th of 15)
9’6” Broad Jump (T-12th of 14)
7.96 RAS (ranked 272 of 1,331 TEs from 1987 to 2025).
Ran a 4.65s 40-Yd and 1.62 10-Yd at his Pro Day.
Would’ve ranked 1st of 15 and T-12th of 15 respectively.
Tape:
Watched games v Clemson (2022) and Cal (2024).
Summary:
Gadsden is a 6’5” WR-to-TE convert who might have the best hands of his TE peers. However, his ‘tweener frame potentially makes projecting him to ‘full-time duties’ in the NFL a pipe dream. As a receiver, he has great hands, impressive body control and the long speed to threaten on seam routes down the field. But closer to the Line of Scrimmage will be where he must prove himself to coaches to see regular playing time. His initial movements can be a little clunky, his play strength will be challenged by NFL defenders, and despite developing as a blocker during his time at Syracuse, there are instances on tape where he struggles with block sustain or misses his assignment altogether. Gadsden will need to get stronger to become a three-down player at the next level, but he should be able to contribute right away in specialised packages with the potential to make some splash plays.
Strengths:
Ball tracking and body control have the potential to be elite for the position.
Hands accept the ball gleefully wherever the throw is located. Can go down low to get it and excels in back shoulder and contested catch situations.
Has all the tricks in the book when it comes to route nuance with subtle push-offs, shoulder shrugs and head fakes.
Uses his frame well to box out defenders and protect the catch point.
Blocking and pass protection technique improved each year at Syracuse. Some evidence on tape that he can be adequate from in-line snaps.
He can work from split flow, surprise a Defense off Y-Leak, live in the slot or do spot-duties as an outside WR.
Tough as nails. Takes hits and gets straight back up again.
Question Marks:
Get-off and movements are a little stiff through the initial route phase.
Play strength during the route can be hit or miss. Occasions where he gets re-directed and will stumble following subtle contact. This problem could be exacerbated at the next level.
In the games I watched, didn’t see as much evidence of Gadsden sitting in zones and finding soft spots at the short-to-intermediate level of the field as I did beating Man down field.
He can struggle with block sustain and shows some forward-lean issues on in-line blocking assignments.
Low Career YAC numbers. Not a lot of wiggle to make defenders miss after the catch.
Can he be more than a TE3 for an NFL Offense?
22 (Pick 158) – KeAndre “Dre” Lambert-Smith, WR (Auburn)
Background:
23.5, 6’1”, 190 pounds, 32 5/8 ” arms
Born Norfolk, Virginia. Played QB and WR in high-school. Also lettered in track.
Four-star recruit. 37th ranked WR in the 2020 recruiting class.
Collected 20+ offers after being named MVP at The Opening Washington, D.C. (ranking in the 99th percentile of athletes). Committed to Penn State (over North Carolina and Virginia Tech).
Attended East-West Shrine Bowl and was a standout player.
Five seasons
Penn State (2020-2023); Auburn (2024).
60 games, 176 catches, 2,702 yds, 19 TDs.
2024: 79 targets, 50 catches, 981 yds, 8 TDs
2023: 85 targets, 53 catches, 673 yds, 4 TDs
2022: 38 targets, 24 catches, 389 yds, 4 TDs
His uncle is Kam Chancellor.
Highly competitive individual with a fair bit of confidence displayed in his interview and a chip on his shoulder. Thinks he’s been slept on during the draft process.
4.37s 40-yard dash time is only one-hundredth of a second slower than Derius Davis’ despite being 6’1”, 190 pounds.
GSP tracking data info for Lambert-Smith from the Combine of 39 WRs tested:
WR Gauntlet: Top Speed (18.91 mph), 78th percentile
WR Circus Route: Top Speed (17.93 mph), 100th percentile
WR Dagger Route: Top Speed (17.57 mph), 77th percentile
Over Shoulder Adjust: Top Speed (18.56 mph), 100th percentile
WR Dagger Route: Top Speed (17.57 mph), 77th percentile
2024 Stats:
12 games, 79 targets, 50 catches, 981 yds, 8 TDs
80.4 Receiving Grade
50.7 Run Blocking Grade
5.7% Drop Rate (3 Drops) (8.8% Career)
50.0% Contested Catch Rate (36.6% for Career)
77.2 Grade v Man Coverage
8 Missed Tackles Forced (T-217th)
19.6 Yards Per Reception (9th)
5 catches of 50+ yards (3rd)
100+ receiving yards in 4 of 12 games (Arkansas, La Monroe, Texas A&M & Alabama).
Second-team all SEC.
2025 Combine:
4.37s 40-Yard Dash (T-6th of 39)
1.53s 10-Yard Split (T-15th of 39)
34.5” Vertical (T-23rd of 36)
10’4” Broad (T-15th of 33)
9.03 RAS (ranked 372 of 3,816 WRs from 1987 to 2025).
Tape:
Watched games v Illinois (2023), Kentucky (2024), Georgia (2024) and Arkansas (2024).
Summary:
Lambert-Smith has the speed and versatility to be used in a variety of roles in the NFL. In college, he was used variously as a motion player, a smoke route target, a slot who could run fades, a Z receiver running drags and deep curls, and sometimes as an X receiver for post patterns and slants in the RZ. He does it all with minimal fuss, competent route savvy and decent hands. With his lighter frame, the challenges he is likely to face to make it as a WR3 or better in the NFL are working on his play strength when tasked with corners who’ll press him or redirect his routes, and proving he can be left on the field on running downs (since his run blocking is poor).
Strengths:
Great speed to catch a drag route or slant in stride and take it to the house (eg, two long completions v Arkansas (2024))
“Jack of all trades”.
He’s done a little bit of everything as a receiver in college in different Offenses. Can serve myriad functions in an NFL passing attack (gadget player, motion man, slot, Z, clear-out X).
Gets in and out of his breaks reasonably cleanly at the top of the route and can stop quickly on deep curls.
Creates good separation on deep vertical routes with his long speed.
Catching skills are above average for a “speed athlete”. Hands-catcher with the ability to bring in the ball cleanly with his long arms including low or outside his frame.
Question Marks:
Play strength likely to be an issue facing NFL corners.
Can struggle with route redirection and playing through contact (multiple examples on tape)
Can’t see him making many contested catches.
Overall, Lambert-Smith’s route running lacks some refinement and polish.
Too upright during drive phase and relies more on athleticism than technique.
Doesn’t run a full route tree yet (mainly Gos, Comebacks, Posts, Drag routes and Slants).
Straight-line athlete with minimal horizontal wiggle which limits YAC. Not many missed tackles forced.
Auburn’s QB wasn’t good but Lambert-Smith also could’ve worked harder to help him out on some scramble drills.
2 INTs when targeted in the 4 games I watched, and one was his fault for not working back hard enough on a comeback route.
Overall, I didn’t like Auburn’s Passing Attack which took a lot of deep shots but didn’t utilise much of the intermediate middle of the field. Perhaps he can thrive with better opportunities and scheme.
Ball tracking could be better.
Lack of Special Teams experience.
Round 4.23 (Pick 125) – Kyle Kennard, Edge (South Carolina)
Background:
23.3, 6’4”, 254 pounds, 34” arms
Born in Michigan but moved to Atlanta at age 9.
Lettered in basketball.
Three-star recruit (39th ranked weakside DE in the 2020 recruiting class). He got offers from Virgina, Arkansas, Minnesota, Pittsburgh and Tennessee but chose Georgia Tech (local school).
Keion White and Jahmyr Gibbs were teammates and Keion was a ‘big bro’ from whom he learned how to improve his work ethic.
Took advantage of his extra year of eligibility and transferred to South Carolina (also considered Missouri). Voted a Gamecocks captain.
Attended the Senior Bowl.
Five seasons
Georgia Tech (2020-2023; South Carolina (2024)
54 games, 82 tackles, 95 pressures, 25 sacks, 75 Run Stops
Already a father of two. Comes across as mature in interview. Enjoys photography.
2024 Stats:
12 games, 10 sacks, 6 hits, 23 hurries (310 pass rush snaps, 554 total snaps)
77.0 Overall Grade
80.7 Pass Rush Grade
79.8 True Pass Set Pass Rush Grade
72.3 Run Defense Grade
13.1% Pass Rush Win Rate
3.8% Run-Stop Rate
15.4% Missed Tackle Rate (12.8% for Career)
SEC Defensive Player of the Year.
Bronko Nagurski Trophy as Nation’s Top Defensive Player (first Gamecock to win it).
2025 Combine:
4.73s 40-Yard Dash (14th of 18)
1.63s 10-Yard Split (8th of 18)
23 Bench Press Reps (10th of 15)
8.58 RAS (ranked 290 of 2,029 DTs from 1987 to 2025).
Tape:
Watched games v Alabama (2024), LSU (2024), Mizzou (2024) and Texas A&M (2024).
Summary:
Kennard is a tall, average-framed, pass rush specialist with long arms and a relentless motor. He transferred to South Carolina heading into the 2024 season as a fifth-year Senior and exited it as the SEC Defensive Player of the Year with 10 sacks. His game is based around his get-off, speed, athleticism, and an adequate collection of pass rush moves to threaten the outside shoulder of the tackle. An area of significant concern for NFL teams will be his power profile and the lack of an effective bull rush which could limit his NFL success. However, he sets a decent Edge and still finds ways to impact the run game, so with further development in a high-quality strength & conditioning program there is hope yet that Kennard may develop into an every-down pass rusher at the next level.
Strengths:
High-effort player from the snap to the whistle.
First-step quickness is apparent and has adequate bend to flatten. Also changes up the pacing of his rush nicely.
Good versatility to play all along the line, standing or with his hand in the dirt; from 9-tech, to 5-tech, to stand-up rusher over the Guard.
Has a developing pass rush tool kit (still learning to link moves together) and he obliterated LSU with it in 2024:
7 pressures, 1 sack, 2 hits, 4 hurries
Push-pull move caused a Nussmeier INT.
Dip/rip sack against Will Campbell.
Long-arm moves and inside counter moves on display.
TFL on the RB on a failed RPO.
Finishing instincts are above average. He does a good job converting pressures into sacks.
Has 34” arms to hold the point of contact and set the Edge in the run game.
Flashes the ability to find his way into the backfield with a swim move, and chase down RBs from the back side of the play.
5 Forced Fumbles in the past 2 seasons.
Question Marks:
Major concern is he lacks overall strength and a power-based pass rush move like a bull rush to base his counter moves around.
Always trying to win to the outside corner will make him predictable for quality NFL Offensive Tackles to defend. This can be a fatal problem for translating to the next level.
Kadyn Proctor (elite LT prospect from Alabama) handled him easily. The Missouri left tackle also controlled the battle.
Five years in college (23yo) so frame may be maxed out?
Ben Herbert will be extremely important for Kennard’s career arc.
Higher-cut frame makes his chest an easier target for Offensive Linemen.
Wham blocks from TEs and other styles of movement-based blocks can stifle him as a run defender.
Only 4 coverage reps in 2024 so not someone who’s shown he can drop into a throwing lane.
Hot start to the year but cooled off dramatically (18.1% pass rush win rate Wks 1-8; 7.8% from Wks 8-14).
Round 3.22 (Pick 86) – Jamaree Caldwell, DT (Oregon)
Background:
24.6, 6’2”, 332 pounds, 32” (shorter) arms
Born in Newberry, South Carolina.
Father played for the Cleveland Browns as a DL (2001-2022). Uncle also spent time on an NFL roster.
Attended high school in North Carolina (as a RB) where he didn’t attract attention and was a no-star recruit in the 2019 recruiting class.
Started in JuCo at Hutchinson Community College in Kansas (2019; former Staley school). Walked away from football during COVID in 2020 but changed his mind and returned to Hutchinson in 2021.
Did enough to attract attention and the rest is history.
Attended the Senior Bowl. Gray Zabel said that Caldwell was the toughest opponent he faced in practice.
Five seasons
Hutchinson Community College (2019; 2021); Houston Louisiana Tech 2022-2023; Oregon (2024)
38 games, 49 tackles, 9 sacks, 47 Run Stops.
Has two career blocked field goal attempts.
Played entire 2023 season with a hard cast after breaking his left hand in the opener.
Good confidence in Senior Bowl interview. Comes across as someone who knows himself (24yo, makes sense): “I don’t want to be someone who had an opportunity but didn’t take it.”
2024 Stats:
14 games, 1 sack, 2 hits, 22 hurries (283 pass rush snaps, 528 total snaps)
80.3 Overall Grade
71.5 Pass Rush Grade
74.8 True Pass Set Pass Rush Grade
81.6 Run Defense Grade
9.3% Pass Rush Win Rate
7.5% Run-Stop Rate
20% Missed Tackle Rate (19% for Career)
2025 Combine:
5.16s 40-Yard Dash (16th of 19)
1.86s 10-Yard Split (17th of 19)
27” Vertical Jump (T-23rd of 28)
3.49 RAS (ranked 1,324 of 2,033 DTs from 1987 to 2025).
Tape:
Watched games v Boise State (2024), Ohio State (2024), Penn State (2024, Big Ten Championship) and Ohio State (2024, Playoffs – Rose Bowl).
Summary:
Caldwell is a 330-pound Nose Tackle with impressive quickness and bend for his size. After playing a more penetrating role for the Houston Cougars from 2022-2023 (with 6 sacks in 2023), he transferred to Oregon and changed roles to a two-gapping Nose next to Derrick Harmon on the Ducks’ push towards National Title contention. Capable of playing anything from true 0-tech to 3-tech, Caldwell has an exciting get-off, anchor, range and hands that remain active through the rep. He has some troubles finishing as a tackler, but he has the physique and skills to become a quality NFL interior Defensive Lineman in Jesse Minter’s multiple alignment front.
Strengths:
Low pad-level consistently gives him the leverage advantage against his opponent.
Possesses impressive bend for a nose tackle (eg, batted pass v Boise State (2024)) with strong lateral movement skills.
Facing double-teams, he has good ankle flexion to twist and maintain the Line of Scrimmage, including on one knee if necessary.
As a pass rusher, Caldwell keeps himself clean off the line with active hands (loves using swipes and swims).
Shows the ability to stack, peek and shed in the run game. Hands are strong.
Flashes the potential to forklift interior linemen and bull rush them into the QB’s lap.
More than a mere pocket pusher (had 6 sacks in 2023 as a 3-tech).
Conditioning looks good. Still playing with full intensity in Q4.
Question Marks:
Gets a little too upright out of his stance sometimes (as a pass rusher).
Core strength to hold the point of attack against double teams is enticing but also a work in progress.
He will need to build his strength profile to prevent the outside lineman on combo blocks from washing him across the line of scrimmage. A few examples of this on tape.
If linemen can get him on the move (eg, on outside zone) he can be worked away from his gap and past the play leaving cutback lanes for the RB (eg, long run allowed v Penn State (2024).
His bull rush isn’t consistent at this stage. He looks to win more often with finesse than power.
At his size, he’s likely to have some issues with finishing tackles (19.0% career missed tackle rate). Anything that requires lateral agility later in the rep is a problem and this shows up on tape.
Doesn’t always have eyes on the RB to tackle.
Older prospect turning 25 this season.
Needs to stay on top of his weight (admitted to playing too heavy in 2024).
Round 2.23 (Pick 55) – Tre Harris, WR (Ole Miss)
Background:
23.1, 6’2”, 205 pounds
Born Cleveland “Tre” Harris III in Cleveland, Louisiana.
Teammates with Malik Nabers at Ovey Comeaux High in Lafayette. Harris was ‘like a brother’ and ‘mentor’ to Nabers.
Played high school QB and was a standout basketball player. Him and Nabers connected 58 times for 1,233 yds and 21 TDs in high school.
Three-star recruit. Instead of being a dual-threat QB he chose to specialise as a WR.
Five seasons
Louisiana Tech 2020-2022; Ole Miss 2023-2024.
51 games, 220 catches, 3,545 yds, 29 TDs.
900+ yds and 7+ TDs from 2022-2024 (3 seasons)
Missed 1 game in 2023 with a left knee injury and 5 games in 2024 with a groin/sports hernia.
Lane Kiffin: “He truly prepared like a 10-year NFL vet. This guy is all about being a great player and doing whatever it takes. It’s very refreshing”.
100+ receiving yards in 10/20 games for Ole Miss.
Confident, engaging personality. Dad worked for 30 years in the oil fields. Salt of the earth. Seems like it’s important to him first and foremost to be a good person.
2024 Stats:
8 games, 76 targets, 60 catches, 1,030 yds, 7 TDs
89.4 Receiving Grade
76.1 Run Blocking Grade
7.7% Drop Rate (6 Drops) (6.4% Career)
61.5% Contested Catch Rate (48.4% for Career)
95.0 Grade v Man Coverage (1st)
11 Missed Tackles Forced (T-117th)
5.12 Yards Per Route Run (#1 in College; 2nd most since PFF began to Chart WRs; only DeVonta Smith better)
100+ receiving yards in 5 of 8 games (including 225 yds v GA Southern).
2025 Combine:
4.54s 40-Yard Dash (30th of 39)
1.56s 10-Yard Split (T-38th of 39)
38.5” Vertical (T-7th of 36)
10’5” Broad (T-13th of 33)
Testing times potentially impacted by sports hernia operation from 2024 season. Wanted to test anyway.
9.23 RAS (ranked 293 of 3,816 WRs from 1987 to 2025).
Tape:
Watched games v Auburn (2023), Kentucky (2024), LSU (2024) and Wake Forest (2024).
Summary:
Harris is a taller, muscular WR with true “X” potential given he plays even bigger than his size and can win vertically and often. His hands are generally dependable, especially in contested catch situations, and he has the frame to box out defenders in the RZ. Although Harris’ projection to the NFL is murky due to the limited route tree in the Air Raid Offense he worked in at Ole Miss, some team is likely to take a chance on his upside in Round 2.
Strengths:
True “X” receiver potential.
Generally catches the ball cleanly with outstretched arms (some occasional focus drops).
Good RZ option on jump ball fades (eg, “Moss” TD v LSU (2024)).
Takes long, loping strides with an easy ability to stack CBs and win vertically.
One of the few WRs who can consistently beat press man coverage in the class.
Throw to him deep one-on-one and he’ll come down with it at a high rate. Strong ball tracking, body control and catching skills.
On limited opportunities, showed that he’s fluid enough to run digs and blaze outs when asked.
Some YAC potential on seam routes from the slot. He’s not agile but he has enough mass and acceleration to break through an initial tackle to gain extra yardage once he has a head of steam.
Question Marks:
Difficult projection from Air Raid to the NFL.
Effectively ran two routes at Ole Miss most of the time (47 of 79 targets were either Go or Hitch routes in 2024).
Acceleration and deceleration are average.
Doesn’t always keep consistent route pacing and can get redirected by traffic on crossers. A few occasions where Dart was expecting him to be somewhere but his route pacing had thrown off the timing of the play.
Nuances of the position are only average right now (route savvy, footwork at the line, clean breaks etc.).
Limited YAC potential on bubble screens or comebacks. Not agile enough to make the corner miss.
Could work harder on scramble drills.
Inconsistent run blocking effort for a larger receiver.
I can imagine it is! Lotta effort put into something that is nearly indecipherable through no fault of your own.
As an aside, I watched and enjoyed the latest TDU podcast. Agree with most of the takes. Based on a combination of the player and the draft value, I think I’m most excited about the potential of Kenard and Gadsden. That’s not to say I think they’ll be our most impactful picks overall. It’s more a gauge of my excitement to see what they may become.
I’m coming around on the Hampton pick. Wouldn’t have been my first choice but I get it based on fit and how the board fell. We may never know exactly what transpired regarding a trade down and I’m not big on what it’s. It’s show me time. And I must admit that I have some bias against UNC.
At least it wasn’t Green….lol.
I have found on this site, formatting is completely different in the forum than in the website where articles are posted. Formatting that is fine in the forum is completely different if you view it as a comment to an article. That’s why I view everything in the forum. I bet this is the problem Buck is having.
So I’ll often get 2 email notifications about a reply. One is generated by the forum, the other by the site.
Which link I follow apparently can affect formatting; i.e. site vs. forum.
I can read everything as well.
A great wealth of information. Chewed up way to much of my time.
@alisterlloyd
FWIW, here is the route percentage Matt Harmon showed for Harris (note that Harmon does not specify which games or how many games are in his sample):
Curl: 29.4%
Nine: 20.6%
Slant: 13.5%
Post: 11.5%
Dig: 10.7%
Screen: 8.0%
Corner: 3.6%
Out: 3.2%
Flat: 0.8%
Other: 0.8%
Comeback: 0.0%
Here was Harmon’s charted success rate by route:
Curl: 87.8%
Nine: 61.5%
Slant: 85.3%
Post: 55.2%
Dig: 66.7%
Screen: 100.0%
Corner: 44.4%
Out: 62.5%
Flat: 100.0%
Other: 50.0%
Comeback: N/A
Other data from his prospect profile:
He took 78.8% of his sampled snaps outside and was on the line of scrimmage for 54.9%.
Success rate vs. man coverage was 73.2%, which was 74th percentile
Success rate vs. zone coverage was 75.2%, which was only 24th percentile
Success rate vs. press coverage was 72.2%, which was 78th percentile
Alright posting my 9 player breakdowns based off the tape I watched. I’ll respond to comments above after that 🙂 /p>
Round 1.22 (Pick 22) – Omarion Hampton, RB (North Carolina)
Background:
22.0 yo, 6’0”, 221 pounds, 30½” arms
Born in Clayton, North Carolina. Stayed local his whole career.
Set high school weightlifting records and lettered in basketball and track.
Ran the 100m in 10.71.
Four-star recruit (11th ranked RB in 2022 class). Offers frosm everywhere but chose to stay in North Carolina > going to Florida or Penn State.
Three college seasons (two as a starter).
38 games, 624 carries, 3,563 yds (5.7 ypc), 37 TDs, 6 Fumbles, 72 catches, 631 receiving yds, 3 TDs.
2024: 281 carries, 1,660 yds (5.9 ypc), 15 TDs
2023: 254 carries, 1,500 yds (5.9 ypc), 15 TDs
15 TDs in 2023 and 2024.
Quiet, nice, humble kid in interviews. Not especially talkative.
Coached by Natrone Means (5’10”, 245 pounds) who was an Offensive Analyst at North Carolina (Former Charger 2nd round pick and Pro Bowl RB who played with the Chargers from 1993-1995 and again from 1998-1999)
2024 Stats:
12 games, 281 carries, 1,660 yds (5.9 ypc), 15 TDs, 38 catches, 373 receiving yds, 2 TDs
90.5 Rushing Grade (T-6th behind Jeanty, Skattebo, Jordan James, Dylan Sampson, Makhi Hughes (Tulane) and Devin Neal)
Would’ve been 7th in 2023.
Hampton’s Rushing Grade ranked 14th in 2023.
78.9 Gap Grade
88.6 Zone Grade
54.8 Pass Blocking Grade
4.35 yards after contact/attempt (6th in the FBS)
1.54 yards before contact/attempt (ranked 99th in 2024 class). So let’s see him with better blocking!
73 Missed Tackles Forced (10th)
26 Carries of 15+ Yards (T-4th)
10 of 12 games had 100+ rushing yards (2 > 200). Averaged 20 carries per game.
2025 Combine:
4.46s 40-Yard Dash (T-12th of 24)
1.54s 10-Yard Split (T-8th of 24)
38” Vertical Jump (T-7th of 21)
10’10” Broad Jump (T-2nd of 23)
4.4s 20-Yd Shuttle (7th of 8)
18 Bench Press Reps (T-4th of 9)
Chose not to do 3-Cone (strategic)
9.70 RAS (ranked 64 of 2,106 RBs from 1987 to 2025). Short shuttle was his only testing that was below 50th percentile.
Tape:
Watched games v Clemson (2023), Duke (2023), Georgia Tech (2023), Virginia (2024), NC State (2024) and Wake Forest (2024)
Summary:
Hampton is a three-down back who should have a long and productive NFL career as a bell-cow. Hampton’s calling card is his great contact balance and ability to break through arm tackles with his thick lower half and impressive burst/power. He has plus long speed for his size, and his frame should easily be able to withstand a heavy workload. He has also shown that he will be able to contribute effectively in the passing game either as an outlet receiver or by helping with pass protection which he does well. Without any major weaknesses, Hampton has the potential to become a Top 10 RB in the NFL by the second year of his rookie contract and should go late on Day 1, or early on Day 2.
Strengths:
Great burst and acceleration with big thighs.
Bounces off tacklers with his strong lower half and often makes the first defender miss. Contact balance is first-rate.
Gets skinny through the hole impressively well for a bigger back and can beeline hard diagonally when he’s into the second level with breakaway speed.
Displays good patience and presses the hips of his blockers.
Durable and can handle a heavy workload.
Long speed is good. High number of explosive runs on tape.
Perfect back to hammer it home in the RZ.
Enough receiving talent to feature on third downs. Can run angle routes, swings and screens. Although route tree is limited, he has natural and reliable hands.
Willing and capable in pass protection. Has the mass to survive and decent technique. One of the best in the class at it.
Question Marks:
For an “elite prospect” his vision and feel for the open hole is a tick below expectation, especially on zone runs. Some runs on film that go nowhere or miss cut-back lanes. He doesn’t take cutbacks as sharply as comfortable zone runners.
Misses some opportunities to bounce gap runs outside for more yardage. He isn’t a ‘creative’ back. He’s a linear runner who runs the play how it’s designed to be run. This is a good trait overall, but he seems almost too happy to run it 2 yds into his OL and a cloud of dust.
Not “elusive” in a phone booth. He’ll push the pile but doesn’t have a standout jump cut, spin move, etc
Not much lateral agility or wiggle at the second level. It’s all about that hard diagonal/vertical speed and sometimes he loses some balance attempting it.
Minimal experience running from under Center (31 total career carries – although not unusual for college prospects).
Averaged 24 carries per game across 2023-2024. Will he be efficient in a time share role, or does he need big carry numbers to be effective?
Punishing running style and carried a heavy college workload from 2022-2023. Longevity could become an issue given his playing style. That said, he’s a bigger back and he delivers punishment more than he receives it. Suffered broken left ankle in high school and missed most of his junior season (otherwise, no injuries).
As for the closing Alister rant, I agree 100%. As much as I like Alt, I think they should have traded down last year if they could have. I think they should have traded down this year if they could have. And I’ll probably think the same thing next year and nearly every year.
Assuming the team gets at least the appropriate value based on draft charts, and further assuming the team drafts well, I think it is almost always going to be greater value to trade down.
That said, I think the biggest problem in this draft for me was taking Tre Harris over Mike Green. If Green is good enough for John Harbaugh and Hortiz’s former front office, I’m not sure why he isn’t good enough for Jim Harbaugh and Hortiz.
Meanwhile, it was obvious at the time that there would be good WR prospects available later. We know this from Lambert-Smith but also Royals, Horton, and others. That is a bigger process failure to me than taking Hampton.
Another minor negative for me was that they could have drafted C Majors, and I thought he was a nobrainer starting in the 6th round. I was disappointed they didn’t draft him.
Trust me, I get the Mike Green love. He was my 8th overall ranked player in the class.
But I also listened to a podcast from The Ringer (Sheil Kapadia, etc) and they said their intel was that many NFL teams had Green off their board entirely because they found his explanation during interview about the multiple sexual assault allegations in his past to be ‘unsatisfactory’.
This is a difficult topic for me now that I have a young daughter. I believe strongly in the maximum that you are ‘innocent until proven guilty’, but I can also understand a team deciding that if a player has multiple sexual assault allegations in their past, whether proven or otherwise, they would rather not draft that player. Hard to be too critical IMO even if he was viewed by the Ravens as worth the gamble.
Having said that, I know nothing about the merits of the allegations and I am completely on board with passing on him if there is merit there.
My daughters are 15 & 11, so I have a very low tolerance for serial sexual assaulters. I do think there’s a difference between a player like Matt Azera, who was accused once, denied everything from the beginning, was cleared by authorities, never charged, but still punish and Deshawn Watson, who has dozens of accusers and seems to be continuing to assault women (while still getting paid by the NFL).
I didn’t like the Lambert-Smith pick at the time. I was hoping for G Frazier there. When they traded up for Gadsden, I was sure they were trading up for Frazier.
Anyway, good discussion on Lambert-Smith. I found a short profile at Reception Perception, and it is encouraging overall. First, it identified this concern:
However, his overall assessment is positive:
There was also an article at the Athletic that contained anonymous comments from NFL execs on other teams’ draft picks. Here is a very interesting excerpt:
Overall, I have warmed up to the pick quite a bit.
You’ll see below that I posted my notes on KLS after watching a few games of him on All-22.
I see the upside – it’s very clear. But I also see the type of deficiencies that could make him a non-factor at the next level (play strength, limited agility, some effort issues). I get why he lasted until the 5th round.
But the whole Chargers war room seemed very excited to bring him in, so I trust their evaluation over my own!
Enjoyed the discussion on Caldwell and Kennard. Again, very thoughtful and well informed.
You guys speculated that Kennard would only play 8-10 snaps per game. That would be fairly disappointing if true, and could be an actual problem.
First off, in a year, both Mack and Dupree could be gone, and the team might need Kennard to play a lot more snaps than that, and I would hope for him to get more snaps in 2025 to prepare for that.
As for 2025, this was the breakdown of Edge defensive snaps last season:
Tuli: 774 in 18 games = 43.0 per game
Mack: 668 in 17 games = 39.3 per game
Bosa: 503 in 15 games = 33.5 per game
Dupree: 570 in 18 games = 31.7 per game
Total: 2,515 in 18 games = 139.7 per game
That is a lot of Bosa snaps to replace. 8-10 snaps per game for Kennard would be well under 200 snaps. Who in the Edge group would get the other 325+ snaps?
I would not expect Mack to play more snaps, and he could play fewer than last year. I suppose Tuli could play more, but how many more? He already led the group. I’m also not confident that the trio of Tuli, Mack, and Dupree will combine to miss just one game in 2025.
I think they will need a lot more than 8-10 snaps from Kennard. If he isn’t good enough to play 20+, then this wasn’t a great pick.
And this brings me back to my point on Tre Harris. For months leading up to the draft, I was saying I felt the team needed to get an Edge and IDL within the first 3 rounds of the draft. I was also saying I did not see WR as a prominent need.
I can’t remember now if I agreed with Jack saying 8-10 snaps per game. I probably didn’t give it careful thought if I did, but I recall saying I disagreed that it would be anything approximating a redshit year.
Kennard needs to see the field frequently in 2025 (bottom-line). I expect him to start the season seeing slightly fewer snaps than Dupree before overtaking him in the depth chart. He’ll be an important piece.
Although all of the above needs to be read subject to the disclaimer that the team could add a starting Edge between now and September (eg, Trey Hendrickson via trade, or a post-June cut). The way they approached Edge in the Draft leads me to think that at least another veteran Edge will be added to the roster. I expect that player to be someone they view internally as being a better football player than Tuli but worse than Joey Bosa.
This is a very interesting thought. I have posted in multiple threads recently about the roster position decision pressure the Chargers will face. I cannot see them keeping 5 Edge players.
If they acquire a veteran Edge who is better than Tuli, the implication is that player will make the final roster. Well, Mack and Tuli are obviously going to make it. So adding a player of the caliber you suggest here implies they keep 5 Edge players or they do not keep either Kennard or Dupree… I assume Dupree in that scenario.
This seems fairly unlikely to me. Do you have any players in mind?
That can’t be the grand plan at Edge coming off an 11 win, Wild Card round season……surely!!!!!
@alisterlloyd
I get that thought. I am baffled as to what they are doing with their cap space.
I think Kennard will play more snaps than the projection. Minter had to have some saying in the selection of Kennard despite his struggle against the run and his inability to set the edge. But Minter likes to use three pass rushers with Tuli to kick inside. Now that Morgan Fox (DE) is no longer with the team and there is no starting DE on the roster, I tend to believe Tuli will play more inside as DE rusher while Kennard gets more snaps on the edge on passing downs.
“The way they approached Edge in the Draft leads me to think that at least another veteran Edge will be added to the roster. I expect that player to be someone they view internally as being a better football player than Tuli but worse than Joey Bosa.”
An interesting take by Allister. Number one, Tuli is being grossly undervalued by this comment, if you it considers Bosa’s recent level of performance. Bosa at his prime was top 5 Edge in the league but he was not nearly the player he was three seasons ago. I just don’t see a veteran out there that fits Allister’s scenario, unless the team goes after Hendrickson (better than Bosa and everyone else at Edge on the current roster), but I’m doubtful the team would go after him unless he is released which is highly unlikely since the Bengals cannot afford to lose him.
We haven’t mentioned about Tuli’s special team snaps at 363, the second-leading special teamer behind only Troy Dye at 391 snaps. It’s quite astounding for player, a power rusher especially who plays starter level number of snaps to play that much of special team plays. It has to be very exhausting and to affect your energy level of play. Yet, Tuli in 9 starts, he recorded 42 tackles, 8.5 sacks (team most), and 11 tackles for loss. Give this kid rest and 17 starts, I’m confident he will be at pro-bowl level next season.
Great pod Alister. Love the comedy (intended or otherwise) between you, Jack and Andy. But I thought you graded the class too harshly, even if I share my misgivings about drafting Hampton at 22.
Totally understand why some will find my B- Grade harsh.
“B" is a Good draft IMO, and the process with Hampton left me concluding that whole thing falls just a smidgeon below Good.
Ravens GM Eric DaCosta spoke on a podcast yday about the only way to draft well reliably being to secure more ‘at bats’. I wish Hortiz followed the Ravens method a little more closely on Draft Night.
I still expect Hampton to be a great player though, so it would’ve been worse had we not traded down and drafted a player I think will be a bum.
In fairness, Hortiz has made 18 picks in 2 drafts, an average of 9 per draft. Telesco made 76 picks in 11 drafts, so just a bit under 7 picks per draft. He only made 9 picks in a draft one time.
I was thinking about this point the other day. If you have a 53 man roster and 16 player practice squad, you need a minimum of 69 players. Let’s say you need another 11 for in-season injuries (to help Kevin with math): That’s 80 players.
If you draft 7 players per year:
If you draft 10 players per year:
It’s clearly better to have more picks. The art in this endeavor is having the right mix of vet FAs and upcoming talent.
I thought your discussion about Harris was thoughtful and well presented.
I don’t love the pick. I am skeptical he will ever become a true NFL #1 WR. That is okay, because the Chargers have a #1 WR in McConkey. But I would rather draft more of a sure thing at 55 than I see in Harris.
Here is PFF’s bottom line on him:
WR3 type…
Lance Zeuerlein projected him as a 3rd round pick and identified Alec Pierce as his NFL comparison. His overview:
Alec Pierce…
Dane Brugler had him projected as a round 2-3 player. From his overview:
#2 target…
Matt Harmon wrote these things in his prospect profile:
Spectrum from Thomas to Metcalf to Pierce to Marshall… quite a broad range of outcomes there.
I heard Sam Monson comment on the pick on the Check the Mic podcast. He noted how difficult it is to project WRs from offenses like the Ole Miss offense. He concluded his take by saying Harris has first round upside but with considerable risk.
Overall, I would have preferred Bech if the team wanted WR. But I really would have preferred another position, like Edge (Mike Green, Landon Jackson) or IDL (Omarr Norman-Lott, Darius Alexander).
But he is now presumably at least a 4 year player for the Chargers, so I will root for him to hit his ceiling in 2026 or beyond.
Tha said – I think Bech has a lower ceiling than Harris. If Bech fails I expect it will be due to some athletic deficiencies that Harris doesn’t have. Bech has a higher floor though IMO.
Ultimately, I don’t mind taking a bit of a gamble at 55 on Harris with Sanjay Lal as our WR coach, given the high upside comp to DK Metcalf (who Lal obviously coached). It made sense on a that level, plus structurally for our Offense where Harris can play “X", and where Bech probably can’t.
Let’s hope he hits that ceiling!
Watched the show today. Great show.
Generally agree with the discussion on Hampton. I wrote an assessment after the pick in this thread.
@alisterlloyd
In listening to the Check the Mic podcast review of AFC West drafts, Sam Monson said he was once completely against drafting a RB in the first round, but he has come around to believing it is okay if you can answer yes to three questions:
1. Is the team prepared to immediately support an elite RB in a manner to make him successful?
The example given was the Giants taking Barkley when they weren’t ready, and consequently, Barkley’s years with the Giants were wasted in the sense that his play was unable to really elevate the offense and team.
2. Are you okay with the opportunity cost of leaving other availaable players on the board to draft RB?
3. Are you okay with paying the RB what drafting him here requires?
This gets at the “surplus value" argument. The Raiders drafting Jeanty makes him the 13th highest paid RB, whereas drafting another position would have meant that player would rank much lower in that position’s salary ranking, arguably making that other player a better value. For the record, I don’t really agree with this argument.
Monson said he thought it was very close, but he could understand answering yes to all 3 questions for Jeanty. But he said his answer to #2 for Hampton would have been no, so he did not think Hampton was a good pick.
He didn’t say who he would have drafted instead but went on to say his reasoning amounted to believing waiting and drafting a RB later would have been better draft strategy, given that RB was so deep.
Why don’t you like the surplus value argument again? I forget. I think Steve said earlier on the show that the Steelers will be paying Harmon as the 61st highest paid DT in the NFL. I’ve always found that argument superficially attractive, but if you think there are reasons why it’s not such a good argument I’d be keen to hear them!
FYI, I posted my “rant" on Twitter about Hampton and I’m getting PILLORIED for it by certain people in the comments 😆 All part of what you can expect when you make your takes available for public consumption.
Because it is much more complicated IMO.
IMO it is misguided because it generally isolates cap hits from actual play on the field and the associated impact on performance. It assumes that market positional value accurately represents value to the team that drafts the player, applying equally and accurately to all players at a given position regardless of the context of their team (e.g., offensive/defensive scheme/philosophy).
If the Chargers draft a rookie at 22, they are going to pay what the rookie cap dictates. It doesn’t truly matter if that means they pay Hampton or another player. That player will make that amount.
IMO the better way to look at it is player combinations. For example, what is better for the Chargers in 2025?
Option 1 (what they did):
Draft Hampton
Reduce snaps for Harris in 2025
Get assumed lesser play at the position they did not draft (i.e., whoever their alternative choice would have been at 22)
Plus addiiional ripple effects on draft and post-draft free agency resulting from different picks
Option 2:
Draft another position in first round and presumably upgrade play at that position
Use Harris as more of a lead RB in 2025
Draft complementary RB later in the draft (and don’t get whatever player they actually drafted there)
Plus addiiional ripple effects on draft and post-draft free agency resulting from different picks
Now extend the question beyond 2025 to the next 4-5 years, since every roster consists of players from several draft classes.
It obviously gets very subjective, and IMO defies trying to put the answer into a neat analytical box.
I’ve been a little quiet on Stormcloud this week friends and it’s because I’ve spent 40+ hours watching All-22 of these 9 draft picks to share some takes with you all on today’s show. One of our most robust discussions as a podcast yet.
I’ll post my 9 individual scouting reports on the players later on this weekend.
Hope you enjoy the show 🙂