SANTA CLARA, CA - AUGUST 23: Los Angeles Chargers defensive line during a preseason game between the Los Angeles Chargers and the San Francisco 49ers on Thursday, August 23, 2025 at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California. (Photo by Trinity Machan/Icon Sportswire)
The Chargers are heading into the 2025 season with a mix of optimism and challenges. The outlook for Jim Harbaugh’s second year at the helm invites comparisons to his successful 2012 season with the San Francisco 49ers. In 2012, Harbaugh’s 49ers finished slightly down on their incredible 13-3 regular season record from 2011. They may have entered January with a worse record but they still won 11 games despite having a much harder schedule and they used this battle-hardened experience in the playoffs to grind their way to Super Bowl XLVII.
Much like the current Chargers, Harbaugh’s 2012 49ers were a defensively stout team with a developing offense under Greg Roman’s guidance. That year saw the emergence of Colin Kaepernick mid-season, a pivotal moment that propelled them to a Super Bowl appearance and whilst the Chargers have an established star quarterback in Justin Herbert, the emphasis on a strong running game and a dominant defense under Jesse Minter mirrors the foundational principles that led to the 49ers’ success. The hope is that this second season under Harbaugh will similarly unlock the Chargers’ full potential, building on the groundwork laid in year one even if (spoiler alert) the regular season win totals take a slight dip due to the tougher schedule.
Here’s my week-by-week breakdown of the predicted performance for the Chargers’ 2025 season, considering key matchups, roster strengths, and potential weaknesses.
Week 1 vs Kansas City Chiefs (in Brazil)
- Chargers’ Odds: +3
- Prediction: 19-16 Win
- Verdict: I believe the Chargers will kick off their season with a low-scoring victory against the Chiefs. Concerns linger about the Chargers’ ability to establish a strong running game, and with the passing offense is still developing there is a good reason the total point spread is set at 45.5. However, the current capacity of Chiefs’ receiving corps, without Rashee Rice and with a potentially less dominant Travis Kelce, seems to sit well with Minter’s defensive system which limits explosive connections to speed receivers which is all the Chiefs are left with. This sets the stage for a tight, defensive battle where the Chargers narrowly come out on top after 7 straight loses to Andy Reid’s dynasty.
Week 2 @ Las Vegas Raiders
- Chargers’ Odds: -3
- Prediction: 27-17 Win
- Verdict: The Bolts are expected to have a dominant offensive outing against a demonstrably worse Raiders defense. Last year, the Chargers put up 22 and 34 points against them, and their corner room is now considered by many analysts to be the worst in the league. With rookie Darien Porter (who I am a big fan of) and Eric Stokes as the top two corners and little depth, Justin Herbert is primed to shred their secondary. While there’s a looming fear of the Raiders’ offense clicking later in the season with Chip Kelly’s 12 personnel maximising weapons like Brock Bowers and Michael Meyers, they won’t have it figured out by Week 2. This allows the Chargers to focus on containing specific threats like Brock Bowers and maintaining an Odd front to limit Ashton Jeanty’s impact.
Week 3 vs Denver Broncos
- Chargers’ Odds: Pick ‘Em
- Prediction: 21-17 Loss
- Verdict: This matchup is projected to be the first loss of the season for our Chargers. The Bolts haven’t added enough to their roster to consistently overcome what is expected to be a very strong Broncos defense, at least early on in the season. If Patrick Surtain effectively shuts down Ladd, the onus will be on Keenan Allen to beat Jadhae Barron in the slot, which is a question mark to say the least due to Barron’s physical abilities (even I think he’s going to be less impactful than people think as a first round pick) Despite the Broncos’ offense being vastly overrated in my humble opinion, they are predicted to get enough possessions to do the necessary damage and secure a win.
Week 4 @ New York Giants
- Chargers’ Odds: Off the books
- Prediction: 23-10 Win
- Verdict: This game is off the books for a reason: the pressure will likely be mounting on Russell Wilson, to be benched for rookie Jaxson Dart. Regardless, the Chargers are expected to concede little against a Giants offense that primarily runs through one player, Malik Nabers, a strategy that won’t succeed against Minter’s well-coached unit. The Giants’ offensive line is also a significant weakness, with their main upgrades coming from veteran cast-offs. However, Herbert might not have a comfortable game due to the Chargers’ questionable offensive line facing one of the league’s best pass rush attacks, featuring four first-round picks. Roman will need to devise quick-release schemes to get the ball out fast.
Week 5 vs Washington Commanders
- Chargers’ Odds: Off the books
- Prediction: 26-24 Win
- Verdict: The Chargers are predicted to secure a close win against last year’s biggest surprise team. There’s a lot of justified skepticism about the Commanders’ overall team building methods, despite Jayden Daniels being an undeniable talent. Their reliance on older veterans, combined with Kliff Kingsbury’s basic offensive structure, is a concern to say the least. The Commanders’ average age is 28.1, with an unusual 25 players over the age of 29 โ significantly more than any other team. Deebo Samuel’s struggles against man coverage last year were also evident so he will need to be schemed open. While the Chargers’ defense is susceptible to quarterback runs, the Commanders’ run and pass games aren’t expected to be consistent enough to overcome Jesse Minterโs well-drilled scheme. However, they will still manage to drive the field and score points, making it a tight contest.
Week 6 @ Miami Dolphins
- Chargers’ Odds: -1.5
- Prediction: 24-13 Win
- Verdict: The Dolphins are on the verge of implosion and have done little in the offseason to reverse their downward trend. Their defense remains injured and carries a talent deficit, plus their offense is too one-dimensional. Without Tua Tagovailoa consistently hitting his first read for big gains, they struggle to sustain drives. Whilst Waddle and Hill represent a significant speed threat but Tyreek seems checked out so they may not be on the field together. The Fins’ pass rush can be formidable when healthy but injuries have plagued key players like Chop, Chubb, and Phillips, they have barely played a down together. This gives the Chargers a clear advantage on both sides of the ball. People have said the criticism of this roster has been too harsh but I’d argue they’re more likely to be picking in the top 10 next spring than to make the playoffs especially with their division rivals improving their chances. I therefore don’t see this game being close despite the bookmakers being less convinced.
Week 7 vs Indianapolis Colts
- Chargers’ Odds: -6
- Prediction: 26-9 Win
- Verdict: The Chargers are heavily favored in this matchup, with a significant point spread from Vegas that will likely adjust based on who starts at quarterback for the Colts. If Daniel Jones starts I see no world in which he puts up enough points to make this a contest, despite the Colts having a strong receiving group that I’m a fan of even if they don’t have a bonafide #1 target man. Jonathan Taylor, despite injury concerns, finished last season as a top statistical running back, but the Colts’ gamble on letting Will Fries and Ryan Kelly leave in free agency will likely prevent them from being a top-ten rushing offense. There’s even speculation that GM Chris Ballard might be fired if the Colts perform as poorly as projected.
Bonus Challenge: Name any corner on the current Colts’ depth chart? Don’t worry absolutely no one knows who these guys are, that’s how far they have punted on this position.
Week 8 @ Minnesota Vikings
- Chargers’ Odds: Off the books
- Prediction: 24-23 Loss
- Verdict: This is predicted to be a narrow loss for the Chargers. Jesse Minter, having coached against J.J. McCarthy daily in practice during their Michigan days, will be familiar with the rookie’s pressure points however the Vikings will have their formidable wide receiver pair back with Jordan Addison returning from his suspension. The Vikings’ run game also features an underrated backfield pairing with Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason, if they can be healthy they can make the most of the huge investment Kwesi made in the interior offensive line. Interestingly, Justin Herbert tends to handle heavy blitz teams well, a fact that Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores is likely aware of after his previous aggressive approach (85% blitz rate). Flores is predicted to lighten the box and employ more Palms coverage, which will leave the middle of the field open. The Chargers, with their additions like Conklin, Keenan Allen, and Hampton, are well-equipped to exploit this schematic mismatch, even with potential issues on the interior offensive line. This will make it a close game and there’s always one of these that gets away from teams and I think this one on the road will be a tough loss to a very talented team.
Week 9 vs Tennessee Titans
- Chargers’ Odds: -4.5
- Prediction: 31-16 Win
- Verdict: This game is projected as a significant win for the Chargers, potentially marking a mid-season breakout game for Justin Herbert. Cam Ward is being disrespected every single time people talk about Shadeur Sanders and I wish the former Hurricane success in silencing the talking heads of the networks who are driving this unceasing discourse. However, the Titans roster is incomplete to say the least and I think they’re at least a year away from competing with a team of the Chargers’ caliber. While they have some pieces on both sides of the ball, a backfield of Pollard and an injured Tyjae Spears shouldn’t force the Bolts’ defense into heavy boxes. One-dimensional teams without an elite quarterback will struggle against Minter’s defense and I therefore see a two score win for LA. The Chargers are expected to be forced to throw more in this game due to the Titans big men in the middle of the defensive line, leading to a big offensive display from Herbert and because of this I am predicting him to go over 350 yards.
Week 10 vs Pittsburgh Steelers
- Chargers’ Odds: Off the books
- Prediction: 16-16 Tie
- Verdict: This is predicted to be a very close, low-scoring affair ending in a tie which is something not many analysts predict however the two head coaches of these teams are experienced enough to know that a tie is a decent advantage to have come playoff seeding when compared to a loss. The Steelers’ offensive plan is a mess which bodes well for the Chargers’ defense. The core issue lies in the clash of offensive philosophies: Aaron Rodgers’ ad-libbing within a rigid West Coast spread offense that relies on timing relationships, versus Arthur Smith’s pro-style, heavy personnel system that attacks mismatches. This divergence is likely to lead to short runs on first down, slow-developing play-action calls that Rodgers dislikes, and failed third-and-long conversions. However, Romanโs offensive style has historically struggled against tough, hard-nosed teams with talented interiors, which perfectly describes Mike Tomlinโs defensive philosophy.
This outcome of a tie would the Bolts’ first since 1973, the year before regular season overtime was introduced. Funnily enough they tied that game 16-16 against the Cleveland Browns. It would also be the first tie in the NFL since December 2022 when the Commanders’ and Giants’ divisional game ended 20-20.
Week 11 @ Jacksonville Jaguars
- Chargers’ Odds: Off the books
- Prediction: 31-27 Loss
- Verdict: This is predicted to be an upset loss for the Chargers, the kind surprise loss that happens at least once a year. I called the Cardinals filling this role last season and this time around I think the Jags will provide the mid-season heartbreak. I think Travis Hunter is going underrated which sounds almost impossible to any one that studied his draft tape. He is so explosive with the ball in his hands and I think his skills, plus the screen game Liam Coen is bringing with him, adds enough to the connection between Trevor Lawrence and BTJ, to the point their offense will be humming. Brenton Strange is another player who adds to their firepower and shouldn’t be overlooked. While the Jaguars’ backend defense, with Jourdan Lewis being their primary addition, is definitely more questionable, their front seven is solid, especially with the late addition of Dennis Gardeck. I therefore see this as a high scoring game where the Bolts’ conservative offense hasn’t got enough firepower to go drive to drive until the end of the game.
Week 12 – Bye Week
A well timed bye week designation can be a wonderful thing and this year’s late one coming before a gauntlet end of the season run seems like the NFL apologizing for the amount of air miles the Bolts will be collecting this season.
Week 13 vs Las Vegas Raiders
- Chargers’ Odds: -6.5
- Prediction: 26-16 Win
- Verdict: A repeat performance from Week 2 is expected, but with the added advantage of playing at home and the potential for demoralization within the Raiders’ ranks due to a season filled with close losses attributed to their razor thin defensive depth chart and inexperienced offensive weapons. The Chargers are therefore expected to secure a comfortable home victory to take Jim Harbaugh’s record against the Radiers to a perfect 4-0.
Week 14 vs Philadelphia Eagles
- Chargers’ Odds: +2.5
- Prediction: 28-11 Loss
- Verdict: This is predicted to be a decisive loss for the Chargers as they fail to matchup to the NFL’s only legit superpower. The Eagles’ physicality in their run game and their passing defensive prowess are simply too much to match this year. I’d love to have more optimism however the Eagles’ biggest strength on offense lies in bullying people with their superior athleticism and that’s something no scheme can keep up with. Additionally Herbert has struggled against Fangio’s teams in the past so the Chargers path to winning will be on the ground which is just hard to do against a team with the defensive line rotations the Eagles can muster up even with injuries. One silver lining is that Keandre Lambert-Smith will relish his chance to matchup with Cooper DeJean again, having previously dominated him in 2023 when Penn State bested Iowa as you can see below.
Week 15 @ Kansas City Chiefs
- Chargers’ Odds: +4.5
- Prediction: 24-19 Loss
- Verdict: A reversal of the Week 1 result is expected here. Rashee Rice will be back from suspension meaning their offense will have more of a threat between the hashes and the Chiefs will be hitting their usual late-season stride heading into the playoffs as the likely AFC West winners. I also have a feeling the Chiefs’ starting running back for this game isn’t currently on their roster and they’ll be active on the trade deadline. Those advantages could push them past the Bolts this time around especially with the deafening Arrowhead crowd forcing Justin Herbert into a silent count which he hasn’t handled well in the past.
Week 16 @ Dallas Cowboys
- Chargers’ Odds: -1.5
- Prediction: 30-14 Win
- Verdict: Season long fatigue will set in here as the Cowboys will likely be under .500 as rookie HC Brian Schottenheimer feels the pressure of trying to steer America’s Team TM to success despite the shackles placed by the Jerry Jones’s wild roster construction methods. CeeDee Lamb vs Derwin in the slot will be some matchup, Brandon Staley declined to use DJโs skillset last time these two teams met and instead tried to let Kenneth Murray (who is ironically on the opposite sideline this time) do that job which ended in a predictable and depressing manner. However the Cowboys still cannot defend the run even with the addition of a declining Kenny Clark and I think this is the game where Harbaugh and Roman try out their playoff run-heavy gameplan with Herbert dominating the Cowboysโ aggressive corners on play action concepts to lead a commanding offensive display especially without Micah Parsonsโ pass rushing ability forcing tight ends to stay in protection.
Week 17 vs Houston Texans
- Chargers’ Odds: Off the books
- Prediction: 24-13 Loss
- Verdict: Outside of the Texansโ offensive line they have improved every other position on the field and with Joe Mixon likely back from injury at this point and their rookie receivers settling into their roles, their offense wonโt repeat the mistakes of the first half in the wildcard game. Playing mistake free with this howitzer of a defense is enough to win games most weeks when the offense they are facing doesnโt have the ability to win via explosive plays and that unfortunately reflects the Boltsโ 2025 roster. This game could be the difference between the 5th and 6th seed depending on how the Denver Broncos get on over the final few weeks of the season.
I charted every single offensive drop back from the Wildcard round loss last season to better understand what happened so I know as well as anyone that there is still a hill to climb to overcome that benchmark even if I think they can get there: https://tinyurl.com/Stormcloudblog
Week 18 @ Denver Broncos
- Chargers’ Odds: -2.5
- Prediction: 18-10 Win
- Verdict: I’m not quite contrarian enough to go against a rather predictable season split for these two playoff caliber teams. The Chargers’ looked too dominant with their sweep of Sean Payton’s team last season to see a complete reversal of fortunes. One factor that always comes to play in Week 18 is whether the game will have a meaningful impact on the playoff seeding. Hard-hitting defenses with often-injured players will take the chance to rest them ahead of the playoffs and that could apply here. Also Sean Paytonโs offense isnโt complicated and with 3 games worth of film by this point, I think Minterโs can force Bo Nix to have to squeeze balls into elite throwing windows which I donโt think he is capable of.
Conclusion
Overall in my estimation, the Chargers will finish the 2025 season with a respectable 10-6-1 record. This forecast suggests a team that will be competitive, with a strong defense under Jesse Minter capable of shutting down one-dimensional offenses, and an offense that, while still developing its running game, possesses the talent in Justin Herbert to break out in key matchups. While challenges remain, particularly against physically dominant teams and strong pass rushes, the Chargers appear poised to make a push for the playoffs, indicating a season of growth and strategic adjustments under the new coaching staff.
Whether they go one step further than last season and win a wildcard round game is something I’ll visit with Kyle on our weekly Powderkeg Podcast episode so be sure to check that out!
Great article Ryan. Thank you for putting the time into writing it. By the number of ads I see on the page (zero), I’m guessing you’re a volunteer writer. I appreciate the content and discussion. A few comments:
There are a handful of games here that seem like answers to the question of โWho are the 2025 Chargers?โ Pittsburgh for sure, Jacksonville, Houston, Minnesota. But those will come out in time. The Chargers have to start with the (2nd) best of the best. What an incredible baptism to the new season.
While I love what youโve done here Ryan, I stay away from season-long predictions because I feel that saying anything less than 17-0 makes me somehow less of a fan. Iโve been making that prediction starting at 14-0, going to 16-0, and I havenโt been right once. But Iโll make it again. 17-0. No question.
Bad personal news, I have to work until at least until 6 on Friday (with a 5:00 kick). Even worse, itโs my g-d birthday. My gal has promised me Korean short ribs and beer when I get home, so not so bad, but I figure missing the first half is considered taking one for the team. I didnโt ask to make this sacrifice for our beloved Bolts, but sometimes greatness is thrust upon us. May this be the last week I have to make such a desperate concession.
Since it is on YouTube, they might have an option to watch from the beginning like they do on the Amazon broadcasts. I would turn all of my notifications off and watch it fresh from the start. You wouldn’t be able to join any game time posts on here in real time, but it is a small price to pay to be able to watch the game in its entirety without knowing the outcome.
I’m going 10-7 with the tie as a close loss.
I just get a weird feeling that this season will be a slight step back before a ramp up for the next 3-5 years.