[et_pb_section admin_label=”section”]
[et_pb_row admin_label=”row”]
[et_pb_column type=”4_4″][et_pb_text admin_label=”Text”]
If Warren was to slip like this I’ll be damned if I’d let Denver snag him.
This is the core of the final roster right now:
- Offense (21):
- QB (2) – Herbert, Heinicke
- RB (3) – Harris, Vidal, Haskins
- FB (1) – Matlock
- WR (6) – McConkey, Williams, Johnston, Reagor, Davis, Rice
- TE (2) – Dissly, Fisk
- OL (7) – LT Slater, LG Johnson, C Bozeman, RG Becton, RT Alt, OL Pipkins, OL Salyer
- Defense (22):
- Edge (3) – Mack, Tuipulotu, Dupree
- IDL (5) – Hand, Tart, Jones, Ogbonnia, Eboigbe
- Plus Matlock, though I think he will gravitate towards fulltime FB
- LB (5) – Henley, Colson, Perryman, Dye, Phillips
- CB (6) – Jackson, Still, Hart, St. Juste, Taylor, Leonard
- S (3) – James, Gilman, Molden
- Special Teams (3):
- PK (1) – Dicker
- P (1) – Scott
- LS (1) – Harris
Observations:
- Still need a RB, ideally a RB who can complement Harris in 2025 and move into RB1 role in 2026.
- The WR group is weak, but as long as Williams is closer to his past level of play with the Chargers, it is stronger than the 2024 group. They could still add a WR, either in free agency or the draft, but IMO it should not be a priority with early draft picks.
- They still need 2 TEs, including a TE1 or at least a 1a/1b to pair with Dissly. I’m hoping they trade for Mark Andrews this weekend and take TE out of consideration for their first round pick.
- They still need at least 2 OL… they need 3 if they cut or trade Pipkins, as I think they should.
- Ideally the additional OL would include a starting upgrade over Johnson or Bozeman. There has been talk of trying Johnson out at center, so signing another guard like Teven Jenkins would enable Johnson to try center with Bozeman as a fallback.
- If they do cut Pipkins, they need a backup OT, and they could re-sign Sarell for that role.
- They need a starting-caliber Edge, or at least a 2a/2b caliber player to pair with Tuli. They also need youth, since Mack and Dupree are both older. IMO this is the ideal use of the first round pick.
- The IDL is weaker than last season as it stands right now, since right now, they have replaced Ford and Fox with Hand and Jones. This is another likely target for an early draft pick, possibly even the first round pick (Kenneth Grant?).
- They are set at LB and could feel the same way at CB. I could see a day 3 pick at corner.
- They need a 4th safety, so perhaps a day 3 pick.
A good draft might look like this (assuming the Chargers trade for Andrews):
- Draft pick 1.22 (22) – Edge Mykel Williams, Georgia – Edge 2 opposite Mack
- Draft pick 2.23 (55) – IDL Tyleik Williams, Ohio State – immediate strong rotation player; probably opens behind Hand
- Draft pick 3.22 (86) – RB TreVeyon Henderson, Ohio State or RB Cam Skattebo, Arizona State – RB2 to Harris but good playing time
- Draft pick 4.23 (125) – G Miles Frazier, LSU – depth player for 2025 but auditioning to replace Johnson in the starting lineup in 2026
- Draft pick 5.22 (158) –
WR Kyle Williams, Washington StateTraded to BAL for Andrews - Draft pick 6.5 (181) – IDL Vernon Broughton, Texas – may open behind Jones, but could surpass him as lead replacement for Fox; could actually push Jones or Eboigbe off the final roster
- Draft pick 6.23 (199) – C Jake Majors, Texas – could make final roster as backup center if Johnson and Bozeman both start; otherwise probably goes to practice squad
- Draft pick 6.33 (209) – S R.J. Mickens, Clemson – slots in as S4
- Draft pick 6.38 (214) – TE Orende Gadsden II, Syracuse – possible replacement for Smartt as TE4
- Draft pick 7.40 (256) – T Jack Nelson, Wisconsin – ends up on practice squad if team keeps Pipkins as depth player; if they cut Pipkins, as a shot at 9th OL spot over Sarell (assuming they re-sign Sarell to compete)
I’m not a good mock drafter, so I’m sure there are issues with this. I looked at PFF and Mock Draft Database draft rankings and NFL draft profile grades to try not to be too unrealistic. You guys can tell me how far off I am.
This illustrates how the draft can be used to shore up the current roster, even if these aren’t the right players. The only position group in need that wasn’t addressed here is WR. If the team isn’t satisfied with what they have there, they could always sign another veteran to inject into the mix.
This is also very consistent with the team’s philosophy – 6 of 9 drafted players on the lines, plus a RB.
Thoughts?
@tau837 Thoughts are that this is a terrific post, Tau.
If this is what they did, I’d be thrilled. No real insights to add because I think it’s a pretty much perfect plan. If they decided to address the future of WR with an early round pick (and leave DT as it is) I would understand it. Tre Harris from Ole Miss is a player I like who could eventually supplant Mike Williams. He might make it to our second round pick but it’ll be a close run thing. Either of those approaches would be fine for me.
Actually the other insight would be that right now it appears Poona/Fox > Hand/Naquan. But I’ve been watching some film of Hand and Naquan and I like what I see. Before the Poona signing few would have predicted his breakout (although some of his historical performances were better than the highs either of Hand/Naquan have reached in their career). It’s not clear to me that Hand/Naquan will be a downgrade from Poona/Fox. I think they fit what Minter likes to do crashing down/slanting against the run to steal a gap rather than two-gaping. It could work out nicely.
@alisterlloyd I agree with this sentiment. I don’t think Hand is going to be as good Poona last year, but I think he’s a solid player, and I’m not even certain Poona will be as good as he was last year. One of the issues with him over the years was reportedly his effort.
I also think its very likely that Eboigbe is able to take a step up over last year. I’m not saying he’s suddenly a stud, but he should be able to improve.
Otito OTOH is on the roster bubble. I’m not sure he’s a fit for what Minter wants to do in the first place. I think he’s likely not on the final roster if they draft IDL or make post-draft signings.
I don’t think Jones or Eboigbe are roster bubble especially not from a pick like Broughton. You’re not going to draft IDL at pick 180 that is pushing those guys off the roster.
Similarly with a guy like Mykel Williams, I don’t think he’d immediately supplant Tuli. Tuli was a very talented prospect in his own right and has been above average since Day 1.
I’m all for drafting an Edge early, but its more likely that player is behind Tuli/Mack than in front on the depth chart. At least in Year 1.
@tau837 nice post but I don’t believe Andrews is going anywhere. That leads us back to needing a TE1 and Harbaugh’s familiarity with Loveland.
@tau837 I don’t like that draft. To much emphasis on D. Using the top 2 spots on D in my mind is not worth it. If team is going to try to run it down the throats of the opponent taking time off the clock then D shouldn’t be on the field as much. I would prefer to perhaps use the 1st on a WR just to take pressure off Ladd and have someone else who is reliable in case he gets nicked up (Golden or Egbuka). Playoff game showed team can’t count on Johnston. Or ideally perhaps a small trade down (hope a team moves up for Dart) and get C Zabel. In round 2 time for a young RB several should be available. I am assuming they pick up a TE somewhere in a trade if not perhaps that is round 1 if one of the big two are available. Just don’t want to see them focus on D as the offense could use some juice.
A good friend of mine drew my attention to WR Dont’e Thornton out of TENN. 6’5” with 4.30 speed. Projected for the 4th or 5th rd. Seems like he is just pure speed but has good hands. Only seems to run 2 or 3 routes, all vertical. For the draft gurus here, what do you think?
@unclejammsarmy For some reason, Heupel likes to have this pure vertical speed element in his offense as a way of opening up the intermediate part of the field. Thornton’s role in the offense was similar to Jalin Hyatt’s where he was the deep vertical threat. He has a fantastic speed/size combo, but he is not very polished. Very limited route tree and lacks instinct on how to set up defenders to create separation. For the most part, it’s either a 9 route or nothing. When I watched him, I comped him to Michael Wilson from the Cardinals. He is not as polished as a route runner, but like Wilson he has a knack of popping a vertical route 2-3 times a game for an explosive play. Sometimes the QB hits him and sometimes not. He will need real work to become a volume WR in the NFL where he can be a WR3/4 and grab 3-4 targets a game that aren’t bombs. The way our offense is set up right now, I would prefer a moveable Z that can play some X (Bech, Felton, Horton) or a straight X (McMillan, Harris, Higgins). Williams is only signed for a year, and we know he’s never playing 17 games, so I would love to grab a true X or Z this draft to be set up for next year, especially if we cannot land a premier TE.
@unclejammsarmy Any thoughts on Jalen Royals out of Utah State? He seems like an unpolished route runner with lots of speed and good hands. Could be available in the 3rd. I’m no good at diagnosing film, but he looks pretty good to me.
@smith I’ve not seen his film, but here his name pop up for day 3. I like Higgins a lot and Harris.
Varying choices here. I would not be happy with the Hampton pick. Less sure about my feelings on Barron. If they feel he’s BPA, maybe but I’m doubtful and think other needs should take precedence. I think Loveland (if available) or an edge (I think Pearce or Scource are the two best who’ll be there at 1.22) are likely picks but Grant would be a good choice too. Golden? Great WR but too similar to McConkey IMO.
https://www.thehuddlereport.com/mock-drafts
@buck-melanoma That one draft had the Chargers taking Booker. I wonder how much his abysmal combine will affect his draft spot. I wouldn’t be super stoked to spend 1.22 on him.
@smith me either. Likely way off-base here but I get a Fluker vibe.
Probably just me but I’d much rather reach a little for Zabel than draft Booker.
@buck-melanoma FWIW, Jeremiah seems to love Booker and thinks he’s a Harbaugh fit. That said, DJ mocked Latham to the Chargers in his final mock last year so… grain of salt and all that.
I’m having a hard time seeing them take a guard in round 1 with the signing of Becton. Zabel at center seems like it would be more fitting.
@blue-beers IMO guard should not be in play at 1.22. I would take it further and say no guard until day 3. The other needs are too great, even just sticking to the lines. They need a starting caliber Edge, pass rushing DT, and center more than they need another guard at this point.
@tau837 Agree with you and Blue about priorities, especially center for me. The more I watch and read about Zabel, the more I could see him at 1.22. I think he’d solve the center position for years to come.
@buck-melanoma Agreed. If he was the pick at 1.22 I would expect him to slide in at C
Maybe I’m a doofus in all of this, but I’m still thinking Loveland at 1.22 (like every other pundit) and Jake Majors or Monheim from SC in the 4th. To be fair, I’m the keyboardiest of all keyboard GMs, but that’s my 1-1/2 cents.
I mean, this was my last PFN draft, which would be stupid good—though no way in hell it happens.
@66_jimbo Walker is a hard pass for me. I loved him going into the 2024 season, but he did not improve and in fact he looked worse. His post season circuit has been bad as well. He displays very little power and strength for his size and is not really a pass rush presence. His best fit is probably a 4-3, 2 down run stuffer who can eat up double teams to let his teammates make plays. I would be shocked if he went before late round 2 at the earliest. Opposite for Mbow. I think he is rising and might be an early to mid Rd2 player.
@smith Not sure about Monheim, but Majors in the 4th would be quite a reach based on what I have seen.
@smith I won’t be sad AT ALL if Loveland is the pick at 1.22. I’m just doubtful he makes it past Denver, even with their FA acquisition.
@blue-beers I’m FAR more concerned about center than guard, especially now that it looks like Pipkins won’t be starting. Warming to the idea of Zabel at 1.22. Not discounting the need at edge at all but center can’t keep being under-addressed.
@buck-melanoma If 1.22 comes down to BPA with the top two TE off the board, I think the Edge and DT group will have better players available than IOL/C.
@evolz3737 that’s not unlikely and I’ll be good with either position addressed.
I remain very concerned about center. While I realize Zabel has virtually no experience there, reports from the Senior Bowl week were positive….and he plays and projects like a solid starter.
One other factor….and again, I recognize the defensive needs and would support edge or tackle at 1.22. But we watched Minter do a pretty darn good job with a squad with few legitimate stars.
I don’t feel that confidence in Roman.
Golden is very good but I feel he’s too similar to what we already have in McConkey.
@buck-melanoma A lot of people—and people whose opinions I respect—are high on Golden for the Chargers. I, too, think he might be too similar to Ladd. But that speed, man. That speed.
I’d prefer a bigger-bodied outside, possession guy, but with Williams now and Ladd getting even better, I could see Golden adding a dimension that the team doesn’t have. (If you want more commentary in this direction, check in on Rocky Mountain Guy.)
@smith if I want more commentary on this that guy is the last person I’ll seek out….lol. I hardly ever even lurk there any more.
I’m not anti-Golden, just feel he’s somewhat redundant.
@buck-melanoma It’s worth pointing out that Golden’s tape doesn’t flash the speed he showed at the Combine. Bond looks the faster player on tape for Texas.
I wonder what the GPS tracking data that gets given to the team’s shows. If I was a GM, I’d care more about that than Golden’s Combine testing (although it’s good to know Golden is at least capable of running a faster time on the track).
Golden is a talented receiver don’t get me wrong, so this is not meant to diminish him. But if you think based on his Combine testing that you’re drafting Xavier Worthy and a guy who’ll take the top off the Defense, that’s just not the style of player I saw on tape.
@alisterlloyd I’m not advocating for him. I think he’s too similar to McConkey’s game. I’m not interested in WR at 1.22 at all. If we’re going for a receiver there, I prefer Warren or Loveland….if either is available.
I still like the idea of Savion Williams in the 3rd.
@alisterlloyd And that’s why I’m not as high on Golden as some others—and again, others whose opinion I trust. I’m with Buck on this one. I’m passing on Golden at 22. He’s a great player, but probably not the best player for this team in 2025. Same reasons I’m kinda out on Egbuka and Burden at that pick. I’m also out on Booker and Zabel at that pick, but for different reasons. Seems like a good year to slip back to 24 (Vikings) and/or 29 (Commanders) if they could get another third this year and/or next. (And still get Loveland, for whom I am pounding the table.)
@smith I think taking an Edge or DT at 1.22 is probably the way to get the most from this Draft if one of the best TEs isn’t there.
WRs, RB, IOL can be taken in later rounds.
I like Derrick Harmon from Oregon quite a lot. It’s not easy to find interior pass rushers and I’d love to see what Minter could do with him.
I was bored at work today so I threw on some RB film to look at guys after the big 3 (Jeanty, Hampton, Johnson). I decided to watch some Dylan Sampson from Tenn. I had the Tenn-Bama game in my DVR, which happened to be one of his best games against a quality opponent. Damn that guy is a workhorse. He’s not big but he runs with violence and power, but he has some wiggle to him. I might do a full profile piece on him. But as I watched, Jihaad Campbell just kept flashing. I know we are not in the market for a LB, but whoever gets that guy is getting a baller. He lined up all over the formation and did the dirty work even when he wasn’t making the play and he has wheels. His play style reminded me of Brian Cushing. He would be ridiculous next to Henley, but there’s no way I would ever advocate taking a LB in Rd1.
@evolz3737 Interesting, and I’ve been thinking about this a lot. I don’t hate an LB at 1.22. It seems unnecessary, but as Harbaugh says, “competitors welcome.” Henley and Campbell could shut down the on-ball linebacker issues for at least two years with Colson playing a rotating role. That’s one major position group locked down. Best use of resources? Maybe not. A solid, and as Hortiz says, “responsible” use of resources? Probably.
@evolz3737 didn’t I just mention Campbell in our convo about Barron? You’re right, he’s a baller. I’m not advocating for the pick either but damn he’d look good in that defense.
@buck-melanoma Yes, which is why he piqued my interest while watching Sampson. If Jalon Walker was available, I think I could get behind him. He could play off ball but can come off the edge on passing downs, but I would keep him as a pure stand up 3-4 OLB/Edge. Not sure if you have watched him, but he might have the best burst in the class from any player and he has the speed to spy any QB if you needed him for that.
I don’t love highlight tape, because you don’t get to see the flaws, but you can see everything I said about him in these clips.
@evolz3737 I’ve watched him a bit and believe there’s pass rush ability there that was somewhat under-utilized.
I know free agency hasn’t gone like many would like. I’m a bit disappointed myself, though I was never really convinced we’d go hard after the more expensive guys (I did really want Garrett). I think what they’ve done is set up to get closer to picking BPA and, depending on how they view a Walker, Campbell, or Barron’s utilization, those players could well be in the mix. They’re all ballers that could elevate this defense.
@buck-melanoma Agreed. They went a slightly different direction than I would have liked with another myriad of one year and short term deals, but we do not really have many glaring holes. If you take a macro look at the roster and the prospects available, I think TE, Edge, DT would be the positions I would look for in Rd1. However, I think this regime has shown that they value talent over need, so somebody like a Barron, Campbell or Emmanwori cannot be totally ruled out if available at 1.22. This is not a Telesco roster build where, for the most part, he left one or two glaring roster holes that everyone knew were going to be filled on day 1 and 2 of the draft.
@evolz3737 Agree all around. Those are my priority areas too but outstanding talent elevates the team overall. The guys we’re talking about would elevate this defense.
Because Daniel Jeremiah mocked Tet McMillan (WR, Arizona) to the Chargers last week, I prioritised his tape and watched 5 games over the weekend.
I don’t think he’ll make it to Pick 1.22, but if he does, here is what I saw:
Summary:
- Tall WR1 with NFL size and traits. McMillan’s best attributes are his hands and competitive instincts. He’s a dangerous Offensive weapon who can take over games by posting-up opponents in the RZ or deep downfield for contested catches. He also moves well for a larger receiver. The main question mark about McMillan’s game is its translation to the NFL level given that he beat-up on some bad competition in college and generally struggled to create separation or execute routes with polish. A creative Offensive Coordinator might benefit from using Tet primarily as a Big Slot or in motion on dirty bunch looks as he can be lethal when given a runway. The comps to Mike Evans and Drake London aren’t outrageous (he’s somewhere in between the two stylistically) and McMillan could be a highly productive NFL receiver in the right situation.
Strengths:
- Filled the stat sheet throughout college career. No concerns about production.
- Natural hands-catcher who extends arms properly at the catch point. Comes down with the football often.
- Has a knack uncovering on underneath routes and working back to the QB when needed.
- For a tall receiver, he moves lithely through routes and has a good top speed.
- Dangerous weapon in the RZ (eg v UCLA (2023)), on scramble drills, “must have it” moments and jump balls. QB’s best friend in those situations.
- Flashes ability to fight through press and win on short or in-breaking routes using big frame.
- High football character. Chose to stay on the West Coast and play with his high school buddy, Noah Fifita, together at Arizona, rather than transferring to a bigger SEC/Big 10 team.
- Elusive after the catch and can make tacklers miss.
- Solid run blocking skills. Plays through the whistle with good competitive instincts.
Question Marks:
- Struggles to create separation consistently on outside releases or at the intermediate level of the field and can drift on dig routes rather than squaring off.
- Limited release package which makes life easy for DBs. Not much craft or guile at the line.
- Slender frame means he can get re-directed during routes.
- Some ‘focus drops’ on tape. Can’t afford these if he’s banking on ball skills being his differentiating trait.
- Short-to-intermediate routes lack polish (doesn’t sink hips properly)
- Relies heavily on contested catch skills which is not a great crutch to have when projecting to the next level.
- More evidence against SEC or Big 10 competition would complete the evaluation. Beat up on some bad Defenses in the Big 12 (2024) and Pac-12 (2023).
- Three games 200+ receiving yards (266 yds v Arizona State (2023), 202 yds v West Virginia (2024) and 304 yds v New Mexico (2024)).
- This goes two ways because he also suffered from some poor QB play. He got open more often than he was targeted.
Chargers fit:
I think he’s a guy who you’d obviously want in your WR room. But I don’t trust Greg Roman to maximise him. I think guys like Matthew Golden and Emeke Egbuka would potentially be better fits because they don’t need a good OC or scheme to get open or be productive.
@alisterlloyd Good analysis Al – I think you hit the proverbial nail on the head with the last sentence. Not sure how useful another receiver that can’t separate and does not have the speed to take the top off a defense would be. I’ve also read that he doesn’t block well.
I think the 1st round pick really depends on the way the draft falls. In the mocks I’ve run, I usually have either a DT (Derrick Harmon), Edge (Mykel Williams) and/or TE (Loveland) to chose from. My guess is that it’s one of those three. Don’t think it will be WR in the 1st. At WR, my guess is that, again, depending on how the draft falls, they could look for an athletic dude on day 2 (like Elic Ayomanor, Jayden Higgins – both are athletic dudes who can play the X and would benefit from having a year to learn from MWill).
@kevdiego Kev, I think Rd2 could be a sweet spot for WR. There’s a possibility that Higgins and/or Tre Harris is available at 2.55. It is getting annoying that I see people saying WR isn’t a priority because we signed Williams back. It’s a one year deal. It’s time to start finding long term replacements for some positions so we aren’t having to dumpster dive every year hoping we get a good deal on players falling through the cracks in FA? It’s not Madden. Players get hurt and we know Williams is NEVER playing even 15 games, so at least investing in another X lessens the blow when he misses time and prevents us from being back here again next year having the same position as a must need.
I understand Hortiz approach to FA of not wanting to spend big, but why can’t we sign the bargain contracts for more than a year? Why is he so afraid to be tied to these players for multiple seasons? I mean, if he is questioning whether they can play, why sign them to begin with? Like Becton. You waited him out and got him on a perceived “good deal”, so why only two years? Are you really that unsure that his recent success at OG might be a fluke? If so, they why not spend a little more and get a player that was more established at the position? It is impossible to field a roster with all longer termed draft picks. At some point you are going to have to target some FA that can be part of the team for more than a year. Again, I’m not advocating for breaking the bank on a few free agents, but also not having to sign a myriad of one year deals every offseason to fill the roster.
@evolz3737 I think there are going to be very good options at WR at 2.55. Counting on MWill to play 17+ games in 2025 is not a good bet. The team needs to add athletes to the WR room.
In watching Hortiz operate over the last year +, a few principles are evident:
- The core of the team will be built from the draft
- The team will be built from the inside out
- Short-term, low $ FA contracts both keep the player motivated (they’re playing for the next contract) and gives the team the flexibility to walk away from a low-performer (Hurst) and either re-sign a high-performing player (Mack, Tart) or let the the high performer leave and get a comp pick, which accelerates the “build through the draft” paradigm
- The team is going to be very careful in handing out long-term deals, especially to FAs who are not in the building (will be interesting to see what happens with Slater’s extension
Watching the Johnny/Tommy shit-show over the last decade boosted my confidence in my football analytic ability. We all could see the dumb moves from a mile away. Trey McKitty? WTF was that? So fucking stupid. With this current group, I can question the moves, but they’re definitely smarter than me (and most/all fans). They have principles. They have a plan. I’m excited to see where this plan leads this coming year.
@evolz3737 You are oddly hung up on the 1 year deals. Here is the current core of the 2025 offense, and how many years remain on their contracts:
- QB Herbert – 5 years
- QB Heinicke – 1 year
- RB Harris – 1 year
- RB Vidal – 3 years
- RB Haskins – 1 year
- FB Matlock – 2 years
- WR McConkey – 3 years
- WR Johnston – 2 years plus possible 5th year option
- WR Williams – 1 year
- WR Reagor – 1 year
- WR Davis – 2 years
- WR Rice – 3 years
- TE Dissly – 2 years
- TE Conklin – 1 year
- TE Fisk – 1 year
- LT Slater – 1 year but expect extension, likely for 5 additional seasons
- LG Johnson – 1 year
- C James – 1 year
- RG Becton – 2 years
- RT Alt – 3 years plus possible 5th year option
- IOL Bozeman – 2 years
- OL Salyer – 1 year
- OL Pipkins – 1 year
That is 4-5 starters on offense with 1 year remaining under contract, depending on whether James or Bozeman starts at center. However:
- Slater extension is expected
- Anticipate the team will draft a RB, who will then be under a 4 year contract; could be 2026 RB1 successor if Harris doesn’t return
- Just because Williams, James, and Johnson are on 1 year deals doesn’t mean the team won’t be able to re-sign any/all of them again if desired
I don’t see an issue with the number of 1 year contracts. I see an issue with needing more talent at RB (expected), TE (maybe), WR (maybe), and IOL (maybe). Adding talent should improve the number of collective years under contract for the offense.
Here is defense:
- Edge Mack – 1 year
- Edge Tuipulotu – 2 years
- Edge Dupree – 1 year
- IDL Hand – 1 year
- IDL Tart – 1 year
- IDL Jones – 1 year
- IDL Ogbonnia – 1 year
- IDL Eboigbe – 3 years
- LB Henley – 2 years
- LB Colson – 3 years
- LB Dye – 2 years
- LB Perryman – 1 year
- LB Phillips – 1 year
- CB Hart – 3 years
- CB Still – 3 years
- CB Jackson – 2 years
- CB St. Juste – 1 year
- CB Leonard – 1 year
- CB Taylor – 1 year
- S James – 2 years
- S Gilman – 1 year
- S Molden – 3 years
That is 5 starters with 1 year remaining under contract, unless Eboigbe surprisingly becomes a starter. 4 of those are on the DL (Edge and IDL), so a clear infusion of young talent on longer term contracts is needed there. Fortunately, that is expected to come out of the draft, which is strong and deep at both positions.
Again, I don’t see a problem with the contract durations. I see a need to add talent at Edge and IDL, and I expect that to happen.
This approach has ensured the team will have maximum roster flexibility every year for the foreseeable future. That is a good thing, not a bad thing.
I think it is possible Hortiz has taken that to an unnecessary extreme, but I think his collective decisions obviously helped the team in 2024 and have positioned the team to be improved in 2025. I can’t resist being critical at times, but overall I have to give him the benefit of the doubt until/unless he shows me that I shouldn’t.
@tau837 My biggest issue with the one year deals are there’s bound to be a season or two when you get more Hurst type return than Ford type return. It’s like bringing in 5 new relief pitchers to close out a baseball game. In order for it to work you are banking on every one of them to fire. All it takes is one or two to not perform and the game gets blown.
It’s only year two of Hortiz and this could be less of a tactic with another few drafts, but what if he signed Ford to a cheap two or three year deal last year? We would not have to go hunting to replace his production with more lottery ticket contracts. Another issue I have is that it creates and endless cycle of replacement that cannot be filled with the draft every year. The likelihood that he finds another two starters in late rounds like he did with Hart and Still is very unlikely, so while comp picks are a nice benefit of being frugal, there are times I would rather have the FA that has shown he can already produce at the NFL level than banking on late round fliers panning out.
I’m not advocating to go the Telesco route, where you blow your wad on a few players and have zero depth behind it, but not every deal needs to be a one year flier also. It is possible to have some middle ground. Becton was a good example. If he was so highly coveted why only two years? That couldn’t have been a 4 year deal with a ripcord after 2? It would be nice to go into an offseason not having to replace a bunch of production walking out the door at multiple positions.
The caveat again is it’s only year two. I could look like a dog howling at the moon in another year or two.
@evolz3737 Hortiz’s approach reminds me a bit of Moneyball. You look for where the hidden value is in the market. In year 1, he found a lot of it. I’m optimistic he will be able to do that for as long as the market fails to adjust. At that point, he can evaluate switching tactics.
I don’t disagree with the notion of signing more 2 year deals and 3 year deals with outs for the team after 2. But I think you are applying some hindsight here.
Had he known 100% how the Ford signing would turn out, I’m sure he would have done exactly what you said and signed him to a longer contract. (Though then you must wonder, would he have had the same season? Impossible to know with certainty.) He didn’t know, so he signed him for good value if he hit his upside but a safe value if he didn’t. Obviously, he hit it, and he will contribute positively to the Chargers comp pick calculus.
With Becton, he has a history of knee injuries. Perhaps that led him to limit the deal to 2 years. If he plays well and stays healthy in 2025, who knows, maybe Hortiz will offer him an extension. It could also be true that with Slater and eventually Alt as top of market OTs, there is only so much more he can spend for the rest of the OL. We don’t know how the current leadership allocates cap budget across position groups.
Once Hortiz has 4 drafts under his belt, the active roster will likely have 21+ draft picks in their 1st, 2nd, and 3rd years on rookie contracts, meaning they will have 4, 3, and 2 years remaining on those rookie contracts, respectively. Maybe as many as 25 players in that group once the comp picks kick in. Today, that comparable group is 18. That implies up to 7 fewer veteran free agents on 1-2 year contracts. Not a huge number, but that is more than 10% of the final roster.
Look, I would have signed Ford to the APY contract the Rams gave him, assuming there is a reasonable out after year 2. So I don’t agree with Hortiz’s decision there. But I still trust that his approach is sound, and he is setting the Chargers up for sustained and consistent success. IMO the biggest threat to that is Roman, not Hortiz.
@tau837 I agree that so far the process is sound, if unorthodox. I just wonder how long it is sustainable? This method puts a premium on draft picks, which is not an exact science. Neither is FA, but at least you have some evidence on how those players have performed at the NFL level already.
@evolz3737 Great discussion guys.
I think it’s worth making the point that Hortiz’s approach not only focusses on building the roster through the draft but doing so by accumulating the highest number of possible draft picks (through comp picks) which mitigates the ‘it’s not an exact science’ risk.
In fact, I think that’s the entire point. The Ravens are so good at drafting not because they’re necessarily better at identifying talent, but because they know ‘more picks = more hits over time”. A pretty nifty strategy really, but I agree with you both that there’s a time and a place for offering multi-year deals to FAs, and so far, we’ve seen a stubborn resistance to that.
But it’s too early to tell whether it’s a deeper belief, or an interim philosophy that they’ve decided is prudent for Yrs 1-2 of the program being built, that will later shift, if necessary.
We also have a coaching staff with intimate knowledge of the current and next draft class, further incentivizing to maximize the number of draft picks available. According to the result of last year’s draft, that’s an advantage worth optimizing.
We also have a coaching staff with intimate knowledge of the current and next draft class, further incentivizing to maximize the number of draft picks available. According to the result of last year’s draft, that’s an advantage worth optimizing.
In 2024, there was an obvious connection to Colson.
And Chris O’Leary had an obvious connection with Hart. I suppose you could say he had a connection with Alt, too, but that seems like more of a stretch to me.
Were there connections between the Chargers coaching staff and other 2024 draft picks?
@alisterlloyd they’re moving toward the draft & develop mentality, of which I highly approve.
Yes, there should and will always be FA signings. But draft & develop creates the path to sustained success and control.
@evolz3737 I felt that the Tommy/Johnny era was driven by irrational optimism, thinking that they were just one player away. This led to them breaking the bank for large FA contracts which, at best, had short-term upside (Linsley) and at worst, completely bombed, resulting in cap hell (Jackson). Reaching for potential UDFAs in the mid-rounds (McKitty is one example), wasting late round picks (Duggan) and centralizing cap spending on a few stars is not the way to build a championship roster.
I think the current leadership team is willing to use all the tools in the tool box provided they align with their principles. This is not a team that is going to sign splashy FAs. They’re going to look to draft potential/athletes they can develop and build out the middle/bottom of the roster with quality depth. The way that they continued to add productive players to the PS and roster last year was impressive. I expect the ceiling to rise in the draft, while the FA signings continue to lift the floor.
@kevdiego Agreed this approach is light years better than anything under Telesco. I always thought his roster building strategy was awful where he left gaping holes for the draft and always tried to be the smartest guy in the room with the Mager’s, McKitty’s and Pipkins of the world after round two. And I never liked his big ticket spending in FA also, but I’m not advocating for breaking the bank. I think targeting the FA that you identify as an upgrade for you vs the value of that position in the draft is the sweet spot to spend a little bit. Take IOL this year. It’s a weak draft class so they targeted Becton. Good move, but I would like to have seen a 3 year deal with an out after 2 so we can have some longer term stability. Again, not the end of the world, and there is plenty of off seasons to see how this unfolds, but I would like to see a more long term plan for the overall roster rather than repeatedly plugging holes with one year deals. Of course, strong drafting also achieves this and so far I am impressed with that operation of this regime.
I call bullshit on this take for the Chargers.
@buck-melanoma I don’t like trading up, but adding Will Johnson would be a great result, IMO.
@bolt_dk it’s not the player it’s the process. To trade up for a CB with our other positional needs would be foolish IMO.
Well as we sit now a few weeks into free agency and based off a bunch of mocks I have seen and what I have read and studied about the prospects, this is my new Big Board Top 10 for players that realistically have a shot at being available at 1.22.
1. Colston Loveland, TE Michian
2. James Pearce, Edge Tennessee
3. Donovan Ezeiruaku, Edge Boston College
4. Jalon Walker, Edge/LB Georgia
5. Mike Green, Edge Marshall
6. Jahdae Barron, CB Texas
7. Nick Emmanwori, S South Carolina
8. Nic Scourton, Edge Texas A&M
9. Kenneth Grant, DT Michigan
10. Derrick Harmon, DT Oregon
Honorable Mention:
Will Johnson, CB Michigan
Mykel Williams, Edge Georgia
Walter Nolan, DT Ole Miss
Jihaad Campbell, LB Alabama
Emeka Egbuka, WR Ohio State
@evolz3737 Today, I’m thinking Harmon is the best choice at 1.22. If he is gone, then top rated Edge or IDL on their board.
@tau837 I’d go with Pearce because of the depth in this DT class but Harmon is close.
@evolz3737 that’s a good list with the exception of that one guy….lol.
Was just coming here to post this.
I’m on record against a RB or any TE not named Warren or Loveland at 1.22.
Of the guys who may be available at 1.22, I’d be pretty stoked with either of those TE’s, Pearce, Scourton, Grant, or Harmon. Barron would be a wild card, IMO, as would Campbell. If it were one of them I believe it’s because theboard. clearcut BPA on the Chargers’ board.
@buck-melanoma Ezeirauku is just a hair below Pearce, because of ACC vs SEC competition, but if both were on the board and DE was the pick, I would love it. He’s underrated IMO. He is the perfect complement to Mack and Tuli’s power style rushes. he wins with speed, burst and bend and he rushes with a plan. Watch some tape of him if you can, even just a highlight package to see what I mean about his style.
@evolz3737 oh I do like him, just a little higher on Pearce. I’d be pleased with either of them or Scourton.
@buck-melanoma Good to see. Outside of Loveland, I am leaning Edge Rd1. It’s a good class for the top 6-7 guys. With Bosa gone and Mack and Dupree on one year deals, this is the time to fill the position with good, long term talent. Edge/Pass Rush is an expensive to fill in FA, and we have seen the Alligator armed strategy there. If we are not drafting one of the top guys, it could become another area of need very soon. I could see them lean toward interior pass rush ability in the first round with Harmon or Norman-Lott or Farmer in a later round.
@buck-melanoma it’s really a big drop off after the top 2. I am not an Arroyo or Fannin guy and the next tier is nothing special. I liked Helm pre draft process because I saw him play in a bunch of games this year and he definitely flashed, but his testing was meh. If we are going to take a shot on a mid rounder that can at least be a pass option, Briningstool is growing on me. He is more of a big slot than a traditional TE and he won’t be blazing down the field, but he has good body control, instincts and athleticism to get open in the intermediate area of the field and has the size to be an option in the Redzone. Especially with all our comp picks, he could be an interesting target in Rd 4/5 as another option behind Conklin. But man, Loveland is the perfect compliment to the offense IMO. He can dominate the seam and has enough juice to take slants and digs to the house and is a matchup problem in bunch sets. Fingers crossed on him and I would not be mad at a slight trade up if he got to the 16/17 range on draft night. I see him mocked the the Broncos an awful lot, but with the Engram signing, maybe he’s not a need for them anymore and he can make it to 22?
@evolz3737 I’m in agreement on the Loveland fit and would hate to see him as a Bronco. That could be a big headache for us for years, similar to Kelce. I’m sure a trade up for him would have plenty of fans howling but it could be strategic on 2 fronts.
I’m more intrigued by Arroyo than you. Fannin is likely to be overdrafted, IMO, and I hope not by us. Haven’t paid much attention to Briningstool. Lachey offers some receiving ability as a 3rd day guy….maybe.
@evolz3737 Your comments on Loveland are clear and convincing. I think there is only a 33% chance of his being available (and doubt a trade up happening).
While I see the reasoning for getting the Edge, given it’s top tier is probably exhausted by pick 2, the real urgency in this draft is to fix and add a weapon to the offense. And there will no doubt be some good ones on the board.
[/et_pb_row]
[/et_pb_section]
