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Good afternoon, StormCloud!
Site Update
We’re going to mix things up a bit from a formatting perspective and update what you can expect (at a minimum) for content moving forward throughout the season.
First, I owe you an apology for being absent for a bit. There’s no real excuse for going MIA—other than just feeling stretched thin with my work/life balance. I’m currently juggling three transactions that are closing concurrently next week, and I'm still working full-time while caring for my daughter.
I hear your comments and totally empathize. This level of content isn’t what you came here for, and I’m committed to doing better.
To help, I’m reformatting things a bit. On the Home Page, the left box will host our Matchup-Specific Thread, which will include:
- Open Thread for the Week
- Lessons from the Previous Week
- Key Offensive Matchup
- Key Defensive Matchup
- Injury Reports
- Game Day Open Thread
The right box on the homepage will continue to host our Podcasts and any non-matchup-specific articles.
In the Forum, you’ll notice a few changes as well. We’re going to feature the Weekly Matchup articles at the top, to encourage more organization and excitement around the current week’s game.
Over time, I hope structuring things this way will help me maintain a clear path for content production, while guiding conversations to generate more awesome discussions.
And of course, if there’s anything you’d like to add or suggest as part of a weekly content calendar, I’m all ears!
Week 7: LAC @ ARZ
This week is bound to be an exciting matchup! The Chargers' defense put on a dominant display against the Denver Broncos last Sunday. The pass rush did a phenomenal job of pressuring Bo Nix, but to his credit, the rookie managed to use his legs to extend plays and evade the rush.
While the pass rush struggled to bring the quarterback down, the disruption was clear. It served as a perfect tune-up game as the Bolts head to Arizona to face an even greater challenge in Kyler Murray, who has the skills to evade pressure and the arm to make the Chargers pay if they aren’t disciplined.
We’ll have more updates on this game throughout the week, but feel free to start the conversation below as we prepare to take on a dynamic quarterback like Murray. We’re also anxiously awaiting news on whether Marvin Harrison Jr. will be available for the matchup. Missing the chance to see a generational talent like Harrison test our defense—which has been lights-out so far—would be a shame.
What do you think of this week’s matchup against the Cardinals, StormCloud?
My initial response? Considering our banged up defensive secondary, I'll be quite alright with not facing MHJ.
Looking forward to viewing the new formatting. Thx Kyle. 🙌
@buck-melanoma Thanks for sending. Good article. If Fulton can’t go I am expecting the Chargers D to fall somewhere in between first three quarters in Denver and the last 10 minutes. The Chargers will handle the Cardinals rushing attack well enough but struggle against the pass even if Harrison is missing.
Chargers O is going to need to score some points. I think 30+ to win. You will get a true test of the Roman O this week with no excuses against a below average Cardinal D.
You're welcome....and I agree. And they're going to need to be disciplined rushing Murray.
Harbaugh was saying just this in the presser... really made a point of calling out that they need to get better at not giving QB's the edge.
Thanks Buck - it'll be adapting as we go to try and tailor things better for everyone. Hoping to really flush out the organization and categorization of things in the next week and a half.
Would like some Chark intervention this week. He gets an extra day so lets get him going.
Also good chance for our pressure guys to hone some skills on elusive QBs. Murray will do what Nix did if we are approaching with an aggressive overpursuit mentality
@pistol495 Dupree in particular needs to learn to target center mass vs allowing QBs to duck out of high tackling attempts.
To rush a mobile QB such as Murray and alike, the rusher needs to come to a split first otherwise he is going to juke you out or spin out easily if charging at him directly like what Bo Nix did to Bud and James. Nix did it twice as many to James as well, and their second mistake was the miss tackle on the inside rather than on the outside on him to let him escape inside to where fellow defenders can get to him rather than letting him escape to the outside where no one is close to him. It's hard to think split when you rarely get a clear lane at the passer while your eyes are bigger than your head unless it is drilled out first, same for scheme tackling. But I can't complain much about a defense which so far has exceeded all expectations. They will continue to learn, evolve, be confident and comfortable under Coach Minter and his defense.
Over the last several seasons, I would look at games that the Chargers "should" win and wonder how the Chargers would fuck up the opportunity. While there are definitely opportunities to improve, I think this Chargers coaching staff knows how to win games against inferior opponents.
And that's how I feel about the opportunity this week. The Cardinals are an inferior team. Even with the injuries, this Charger team should win this game.
While I like Murray, I do not think short, mobile QBs with an injury history and questionable decision making lead to success in the NFL (I call this the Russell Wilson rule). This is a game where Minter needs to contain Kyler, stop the run and force Murray to win with his arm. I think the Chargers control the clock, contain the Cardinals and win pretty easily
While I like Murray, I do not think short, mobile QBs with an injury history and questionable decision making lead to success in the NFL (I call this the Russell Wilson rule).
You are selling Wilson short here, as you often do. As of today, here is a selection of Wilson's all-time rankings:
- 20 pass attempts
- 19 completions
- 21 completion percentage
- 19 passing yards
- 14 yards per passing attempt
- 13 passing TDs
- 15 passing TD percentage
- 113 interceptions (high number is good)
- 8 interception percentage (low number is good)
- 3 passer rating
- 5 yards per rushing attempt
- 14 total offense
- 10 game winning drives
- 9 comebacks
- 15 regular season wins
- 13T postseason wins
Also:
- Instrumental in helping Seattle reach 2 Super Bowls and win 1 Super Bowl championship
- 9 Pro Bowls
- 1 2nd team All Pro selection
- 1 Walter Payton Man of the Year award
- 1 Bart Starr award
- NFL record for passing yards in a playoff game by a rookie
- NFL record for 4th quarter TD passes in a season
- Long list of Seattle Seahawks records
That is a lot of NFL success. As of today, that is easily one of the 20 best NFL QB careers of all time, probably one of the top 15.
Murray has a long way to go to get close to Wilson's NFL accomplishments, and he likely never will.
Other than the Wilson comment, I agree with your take on Murray and this game.
@tau837 This was a topic we covered pretty extensively when Russell was traded to the Broncos, where many of us felt he would be fighting to be the 3rd-best QB in the division. I don't think we were wrong for feeling that way.
He's definitely recieved the accolades you mentioned, but there's also this:
- The Seahawks were led by a historically relevant defense. When that defense slowly dismantled and more pressure was on Russ to carry the team, they progressively got worse
- The Seahawks immediately improved when they traded him; Geno Smith had a career-resurrecting year and led them to the playoffs after Russ was traded away
- The Broncos ate the largest dead-cap hit in the history of the NFL to part ways with him, despite not having a top-ten pick in the draft and no clear replacement for him at the time.
I really can't see Russ as having a top 15-20th career in the history of the NFL.
@kylededi What I said was as of today he has had one of the top 15-20 QB careers in NFL history. However, I admit that I probably overstated that, as I think about it, since I was saying that based on his historic ranks alone. Others with lesser stats today and in past eras have already had better careers. Wilson probably has a top 40-50 all time QB career at this point. And that is pretty damn good. It is certainly better than Kev's dismissive label.
Let me put it this way. Do you believe Wilson will make the PFHOF? I do, based on what I already posted.
The Seahawks defense was historically good for the first 5 seasons of Wilson's career and dropped off after that. But they would not have won the Super Bowl with just any QB. He was a perfect fit for their team at that time, which was constructed to win with a run heavy, vertical passing offense.
The Broncos are responsible for that dead cap hit. It doesn't change anything about Wilson's career.
Murray is not as good as peak Wilson. That's good. Like I posted already, I agreed with the rest of Kev's post.
@tau837 Good to see you posting, my friend. I know this is a topic we both have passion for.
I don't question that Wilson had success during his time in Seattle. We can debate how much of that success was due to coaching and playing on a very good team (vs. Russ elevating the team), but there's no debate that statistically, his time in Seattle was a success. My argument was never about what Wilson was. My argument was what an older Wilson would be in Denver. My opinion at the time was that, if Denver wanted to compete with KC and LAC, they needed their own young QB that could compete with Mahomes and Herbert. At the time, I thought the better path would have been to use their draft capitol to go after CJ Stroud or hire a middle of the road coach (like Lovie Smith) to build discipline on a team, lose a lot, then go all-in to get Caleb Williams. They kind of fucked themselves in multiple ways, not only giving up a ton of resources to trade for Wilson, but also signing him to a massive extension AND giving up even more draft capitol (and $$$) for an above average coach. The result was that the ended up with the 3rd best QB and 2nd (now 3rd) best coach in the division. They're going to win just enough games to draft in the middle of each round while the playoffs will be illusive.
Payton is now in his 3rd year as HC for the Broncos. When he took the job, he said it was the only place he wanted to coach, which was either foolish or a lie. If the dude wanted to win, he would have gone to a team in a shitty division (like his old division). I'm very interested to see what the Broncos do after the 2025 season. If the Broncos win 7-9 games in each of the next two years and miss the playoffs (which I think is reasonable to expect), do they extend Payton?
The Broncos and Raiders leadership have made several decision which, in my opinion, were not going to provide a path to a championship. I can't see either team winning a SB (or even the division) with their teams as constructed. As I hate both teams, I am enjoying the shit out of each team stacking bad decisions on top of bad decisions.
@kevdiego Yes - this is what made the trade for Russ incredibly stupid. The Broncos actually had a talented roster, but couldn't get the QB position right. The Raiders still had Carr, so with Herb's deal coming up the Broncos had the chance to be the only team in the division with a rookie-QB contract, at a time where they had some budding stars they could have built around. His trade and the Watson trade were the two most head-scratching moves I've ever seen... essentially paying top-dollar for a franchise QB twice, once in salary obligations and once in draft compensation.
Instead, they lost Shelby Harris, Noah Fant (who have done well for SEA), a ton of draft capital, and completely chopped themselves at the knees... missing out on $53M in cap space this season, and $32M next. The Chargers have $55.4M in dead cap for 2024 spread across 13 players - a number we feel is devastating, and we only currently have $3.4M in DC on the books for next season.
@kylededi Its amazing what quality leadership and sound decision making can do for a roster. I think the Broncos are on a better path now under Payton than they were a few years ago with new ownership betting the farm on Aaron Rogers, hiring Hackett and then panic-trading for Wilson. That was a very unfortunate (at least for donkey fans) series of decisions. Now, I'm questioning the timing. With a quality coach in Payton, but playing in a division with Harbaugh/Herbert and Reid/Mahomes, the ceiling for a Payton/Nix team is 9 wins and possibly a playoff birth. I still think the better path forward would be saving $ on a coach, "rebuilding" for two seasons (where rebuilding = losing a lot), stacking draft picks, then competing for a championship in 2027. Spending all that money on Sean Payton just to finish 3rd in the division every year seems like a waste.
I used to root for Cleveland. Good story. A city that got their team back (after Art Model fucked them). That all changed with the trade for Watson. My oldest daughter started high school this year. We have lots of discussions about boys and the shit they do to try to hook up with girls. Watson seems like he has the maturity of a 14 year old boy trying to get laid. As a very talented 29 year old man, the dude should grow the fuck up and respect the talents god gave him. Instead, he continues to not take his profession seriously and spends his time using his power and wealth to try to hook up (like a 14 year old boy). And, Cleveland kicked an injured Mayfield to the curb and bet the farm on this ass hat. The Browns are getting what they deserve.
@tau837 His PFHOF legacy is a great question, because based on those Super Bowl appearances, if I say "no" I'm probably admittedly Rivers isn't getting in. I would be curious to see how those two compare to each other in voting, because Rivers remained a viable franchise QB for considerably longer than Russ, but Russ saw much more success early.
The reason I'm not very high on Russell Wilson is because I heavily skew my perception of QB's based on how they perform outside of their rookie contract window. A QB of Russ' archetype - a dual-threat, physically talented quarterback (especially one that minimizes interceptions) that can extend plays can provide a ton of value on a rookie deal - where pocket-passing QBs develop over time, Russ' raw athletic availability has always been there. The Seahawks were able to prioritize building one of the most talented rosters around Russ - and it's fair to point out that because he wasn't a top prospect out of school, he was drafted to a team that was already turning the corner and had talent, instead of being a top-5 pick that gets thrown in a terrible situation early in their career. The table was set for Russ to have great success early with that team, thanks to a dominant running game and defense, and his own dynamic ability with his legs... which also ended up being one of his biggest liabilities.
However, after the Seahawks extended him and it became his turn to carry the mantle for the team, they shifted from a 6-2 playoff record to a 3-5 record (or, if you argue 2015 was heavily cost-controlled as it was the first year of his extension, 7-3 vs 2-4).
Combine that with the many teammates of his later coming out criticizing him for not being a good teammate and leader (Marshawn Lynch talked on Club Shay Shay about how he tried to reach out to Russ to offer support after a game, but didn't have his number so Lynch had to call the front office to ask for his number, and instead Marshawn received a call from a blocked number and had a very awkward conversation with him).
Russ' touchdowns increased as the Legion of Boom phased out, but I didn't see many areas where he actually grew. He continued to be a quarterback that held the ball for too long and struggled to stay on schedule. The rumors that were coming out of SEA at the time was that he was blaming his offensive line for weak protection and Pete for not building a better line for him, but the critique against him was he simply couldn't stay on schedule... which supposedly led to the fallout between him and Pete.
Sacks against Ranking (1st being the most sacks against)
2012: 6th
2013: 2nd
2014: 2nd
2015: 1st
2016: 1st
2017: 4th
2018: 3rd
2019: 2nd
2020:1st
2021: 3rd
2022: 1st (Broncos, missed two games) Geno Smith - 5th
2023: 5th (Broncos, missed two games), Geno Smith - 19th (Sam Howell, Bryce Young, Baker Mayfield, Zach Wilson ranked worst)
Even in Russell's last year with the Broncos, he put up numbers that mirrored his SEA days (his 98 QBR was only 2 points off his career number, his pass yards/game was only about 26 yards/game less)... but Payton still decided to swallow a disastrous cap charge to move on from him. I know you disagree, but that to me says a ton about Russ as a QB and a leader. He continued to take sacks and hold onto the ball too long.
I absolutely agree with you that Murray has a long way to go to stack his career against Russell's, but as I've suggested, I think that's just as much contextual as it is due to disparity in talent. Murray was drafted into a dumpster fire of a roster that had just wasted a top-ten pick on Josh Rosen.
Whereas we were devasted to see Rivers go, but wished him well as he went to the Colts, every SEA fan I knew was happy to see Russ leave... for what it's worth.
As I posted earlier, the Seattle defense was dominant in Wilson's first 5 seasons, 2012-2016. Lynch was dominant in his first 3 seasons, 2012-2014. By 2016, Seattle was 25th in rushing yards.
Wilson was always a great vertical passing QB. Starting in 2015, he showed that he could carry the offense. Starting in 2017, he showed that he could carry the team.
In 2012-2016, if you want to make the split where the dominant defense ended, Seattle had 56 regular season wins (11.2 per season), with no losing seasons, making the playoffs all 5 seasons. Wilson averaged 25 passing TDs and 9 interceptions.
In 2017-2020, they had 42 wins in 4 seasons (10.5 per season), with no losing seasons. They made the playoffs 3 times, missing in 2017 with a 9-7 record. Wilson averaged 35 passing TDs and 9 interceptions.
In 2021, the only losing season Wilson had in Seattle, he sprained his throwing hand thumb in game 5. In the first 4 games, he was dominating. Then he came back too soon, and his passing was negatively affected the rest of the season.
He clearly played poorly in Denver, but he was also matched with the worst head coach in the NFL in his first season there, and then with Payton, whose offense was a poor fit for Wilson.
Can he revive his career, starting this week? Maybe not, but I'm interested to see how it plays out.
@tau837 Interesting discussion. I think context is everything. Wilson in Seattle had great coaching and a strong roster. In that environment, he thrived. In Denver, with a decent roster and questionable coaching, he ate shit. When a better coaching staff was hired, he was kicked to the curb.
Kyle's comparison of fans perceptions of Rivers and Wilson speaks to the intangibles above the statistics. By most accounts, Russ is not a good teammate. Russ does not put in the work to be exceptional. Compare that to a guy like Rivers who worked his ass off and was a great teammate. Both are borderline PFHOF players. I bet Rivers has sold more jerseys.
Russ's personality make him a difficult guy to root for. His style of play does not age well. Short, mobile QBs are most successful early in their careers when they are at their athletic peak. As the hits accumulate and father time degrades their athleticism, mobile QBs play suffers. Age and style of play are why I thought Russ would not be successful in Denver. Pittsburg is a very well coached team with a quality roster. They're 4-2 without Russ. Will be interesting to see how well they play with Russ leading them.
Russ does not put in the work to be exceptional.
This is the opposite of everything I have ever read or heard said about Wilson, dating all the way back to his college years, and I believe it to be false. Google it and you find many examples that contradict it and few, if any, that support it. Many of his past teammates have commented positively about his work ethic and routine.
He definitely has a rather unique personality for a football player, and I'm sure that has led to some of the negative stories about him. I wouldn't argue that. But your statement I quoted here is wrong.
I'm a NC State fan, which led me to be a Wilson fan. So there is a reason I know a lot about him and have followed his career closely. I have to say I'm surprised that there are multiple fans in this Chargers forum who care enough about him to bring him up occasionally and then respond negatively to every post about him.
@tau837 Wasn't Wilson the guy that brought his own people to Denver, had his own office and refused to participate in several of the team programs? To me, that's not putting in the work to be exceptional. An exceptional leader would work with the team to improve the process for the team rather than telling his teammates that the program they all were following was not good enough for Russ.
I guess "unique personality" is a different way of saying his not a great leader. I will be interested to see how things go for Russ in Pittsburg. Sean Payton quickly got sick of his shit. Tomlin does not strike me as a guy who will put up with a lot of nonsense either.
Yes, he had an office and had some of his own people in his first year in Denver. I don't agree with that, and his first coach should have blocked that, as Payton did.
I'm not aware that Wilson "refused to participate in several of the team programs." I'm surprised you care enough to post about him as much as you have, but, if you want to keep on with it, please provide some links to substantiate that.
Again, I Googled about his work ethic and found many positive quotes about it, and zero negative quotes. That included multiple teammates in Denver and Pittsburgh.
You say he isn't a great leader, and clearly there are some ex-teammates who don't like him now. But it seems curious then that he was voted as a captain by his teammates on every team he has played on in the NFL and college. That includes every Seahawks team, both Broncos teams, and this year's Steelers.
his first coach should have blocked that, as Payton did.
Don't you think that a vet QB and leader of the team should have helped his inexperienced HC out by discussing issues he had with the overall program? I think working together improve the program would have been a much more mature approach. You can blame the HC, but I think Hackett was trying to figure out his role. Wilson did his HC no favors in building his own side-program.
it seems curious then that he was voted as a captain by his teammates on every team he has played on in the NFL and college. That includes every Seahawks team, both Broncos teams, and this year's Steelers.
I think this has more to do with Russ being the "franchise" QB rather than being a great leader.
Don't you think that a vet QB and leader of the team should have helped his inexperienced HC out by discussing issues he had with the overall program? I think working together improve the program would have been a much more mature approach.
There is no indication I am aware of that Wilson did not do these things (i.e., try to help his inexperienced HC, discuss issues with overall program, try to work together to improve the program).
Wilson did his HC no favors in building his own side-program.
Ironically, Wilson trying to "build his own side program" was about working more/better/harder (in his view), which is counter to your criticism of his work ethic.
He may have taken the wrong approach, but it was with good intentions.
I think this has more to do with Russ being the "franchise" QB rather than being a great leader.
You know his teammates voted on it, right? Every season in his career. So your feeling is that players who disliked Wilson and/or felt he was a bad leader felt like they had to vote for him? Sounds like a stretch.
You know his teammates voted on it, right? Every season in his career. So your feeling is that players who disliked Wilson and/or felt he was a bad leader felt like they had to vote for him? Sounds like a stretch.
That has to do far more about football culture than it does Wilson. It's an anomaly for a team to not select their QB as a captain. It has as much to do with what everyone understands the QBs role to be, and not wanting to portray a dysfunctional outward image. Even rookie QB's frequently get selected as captains.
In the last two years, the only team to not have a starting QB elected to captain was the 2023 Atlanta Falcons. Desmond Ridder was projected to start but Taylor Heinicke was brought in as well to compete, and the margin between the two was likely small enough that is wasn't totally clear who the starter would end up being.
Russell has been one of the most criticized QB's in the league from within his own fanbase. The only comparable quarterback would be Aaron Rodgers, but more because he's seen as having forced his way out of Green Bay and fans took that personally. Unlike Rodgers whose WR's have followed him to New York and whose teammates speak well of, former teammates have taken every opportunity to take shots at Russ - from when Tyler Lockett and DJ Metcalf joined Geno Smith in his '23 Week 5 postgame presser and Tyler said "It's amazing what we can accomplish when no one cares who gets the credit...", Richard Sherman on a TNF broadcast, Marshall Lynch telling his story, it's an all-too common occurance. The consistent messaging out of SEA is that he was an incredibly selfish, self-serving player, who cared far more about Team 3 than SEA.
Russell Wilson is NO DOUBT an exception athlete that is extremely self-motivated and a hard worker. He has drafted into the MLB multiple times as well as the NFL. There's likely a whole other alternate reality where Russ plays baseball, and is seen as a great teammate, because the expectations of the leadership, accountability, and selflessness a QB is supposed to possess doesn't transfer over to a baseball player - they have much more room to focus on themselves and their craft.
But I don't understand why you think it's weird for Kev to bring up Russ in the conversation. He's been brought up before because he was traded into our division, and many of us thought it was a terrible move (and there's no debate at this point, the only move in recent memory that was worse than the Russ trade was the Watson trade). If he believes Kyler is a better athlete than a QB, as he alluded, and that Russ is a close comp, it's very valid observation and relevant to this conversation.
This entire tangent of discussion began when I responded to this statement from Kev:
I do not think short, mobile QBs with an injury history and questionable decision making lead to success in the NFL (I call this the Russell Wilson rule).
That is absolutely not an accurate description of Russell Wilson's career. It was another unnecessary negative shot at Wilson that was completely irrelevant to the point of his post and the point of the discussion in this thread.
I responded to it and you and he have proceeded to respond to every one of my posts to say negative stuff about Wilson. It's bizarre IMO.
Your follow up statement "You are selling Wilson short here, as you often do" was needlessly dismissive of Kev's viewpoints, and it seems call back to the whole Russ to Denver thing that many if us were debating over.
It's totally understandable for you to look at Russ through a different lens than the rest of us as you have ties to his college days, and I'm know there are plenty of unbiased fans that are higher on Russ than Kev and I are. But there is plenty of evidence that supports not wanting Russ as a QB you'd want to build around on a veteran QB cap hit.
But if you personally call someone out like you did, people that share the same perspective might chime in.
I already explained why I "called out" Kev, and I don't think I have been any more dismissive of Kev's viewpoints than he has been of mine.
That said, we are all dug in on this, and there isn't much point in continuing to discuss it, so I'm going to stop and let you guys have the last word if you want it.
@tau837 Genuinely enjoyed reading this back and forth about DangerRuss between you all. This is very good content and any calling out has been done respectfully (enough) and in the interests of fierce debate. Keep it coming I say! 😆
Russ is somebody I enjoy hating on because I find his personality/brand fairly annoying. However, watching him play over the years is something I've found a real treat to watch (especially during his glory days in Seattle) and he's had a great (and pretty close to sensational) football career. His moon balls have an arc/trajectory like few others. I enjoy watching him throw deep balls. I enjoy watching him throw picks. I enjoy watching him get sacked and also evade sacks. And I enjoy him being in the NFL.
As for Rivers, I absolutely expect him to make the PFHOF. I probably haven't posted about his case in this forum, but I posted about it at BFTB in the past. He may have to wait several years after he is eligible due to the lack of postseason accomplishments, but he has everything else.
Kyzir White is struggling in pass coverage. I'd be feeding him a heavy dose of Vidal in the passing game.
Found this very interesting; Kyler targets the middle of the field the least of all quarterbacks by some distance. Our rookie corners will be tested up and down the sideline. I'd like see some Palms coverage with middle field spies to negate those stupidly fast feet of his finding escape routes.
@ryanwatkins I'm guessing that's do to him rarely being on schedule, probably rolling out a ton?
...and something about looking over his offensive line?
I think the height thing is a genuine reason as he's just not able to get the ball up and down but also Kyler has an underrated arm so he can hit sideline balls easily and he's not an anticipatory thrower across zones. It's why MHJ being healthy is such a blow as that's the type of iso guy that unlocks his game.
When I started the defensive matchup article I was going to key in on the pass rush getting to Murray before he could extend plays and uncork deep passes to MHJ, but then I remembered the Hart storyline and went with that. Admittedly though, Monday is all about pass rush IMO
Just subscribed to ESPN+ via my Roku. Hopefully I can watch directly on TV. If not I'll cast my phone...I hope. Oddly excited about this game.
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