The Chargers have a run defense problem which goes well beyond missed tackles or blown assignments. Jesse Minter’s clever ways of manipulating the numbers have been understood to a degree he can’t rely on them anymore. This has manifested at the worst times across the past two games to put the team in bad positions, one of which they were able to win but the inability to certainly put that game in danger too. Kliff Kingsbury and Mike McDaniel were both able to identify the same chink in the Bolts’ armor and exposed it to game-changing effects. Last season Minter’s unit finished 12th in EPA/rush, this season it’s already down to 24th and whilst injuries have played a part, they are not the full story.
I highlighted this in my video last week and since then Daniel Popper of The Athletic has written a good piece highlighting how when the Chargers go into their redzone man coverage section of the playbook, they are being manipulated into losing their gap integrity. However the truth is a bit more stark than this being a simple communication issue as he has perceived it to be.
Whether the Chargers are in man or zone coverage, opposing offensive coordinators are overwhelming the weak side of the line. Kyle and I went over this on this week’s episode of the Powderkeg Podcast but I thought I’d write it out to explain it in more detail to illustrate exactly what the issue has been.
The Killer Concept
There is one specific concept that is absolutely breaking Minter’s scheme: Power/Counter Weak out of Trips Gun Nub. Over the last two weeks offensive coordinators are using this concept to blow open the Chargers Minus run fits, which means they are trying play with less bodies than gaps, to devastating effect. Trips Gun Nub formations are when the offense is in Trips with the quarterback in a Shotgun alignment and the weak-side only occupied by a solitary player, the nub, who’s tight against the offensive tackle.
From here the offense has two formations they can run, either the back is on the nub side to create a Stack behind the tight nub player (represented in the play design above) or the back is on the trips side to create a 4-Strong look which you can see in the image below.
From two high shells, there are two ways to play this on the backside. Against 4-Strong you play Sky Force, which is a Cover 3 based principle with the corner playing the deep third and the Safety playing the force role which is to get outside, play the flats in the pass and turn everything back inside. On the other side of the coin, against Stack you play Cloud Force which is where the corner plays the force role and the safety caps everything over the top which is a Cover 2 principle.
Across the season to date the Chargers rank 31st in EPA/rush when facing Power or Counter out of Shotgun. They have given up 117 yards on 19 attempts for 4 first downs, 2 touchdowns with a success rate of 52.6%. This is an issue that stretches beyond a few redzone plays.
In Minter’s first 21 games as the Bolt’s defensive coordinator this was working beautifully with cohesive play from that backside triangle of the edge, corner and safety. However this season the personnel has changed and the Chargers’ opponents have identified this perceived weakness and have been attacking it relentlessly over the last 3 weeks.
This video explains in better ways that I could how Minter’s light box run fits, or more specifically, his G-Front, works to cheat back the gaps necessary to play in a minus state.
The issues have been coming in that the Chargers cannot rely on Donte Jackson to fit the run and teams know this. He’s been admirable on defending outside the hashes but he just doesn’t have the mentality or size to fit the run like his peers Tarheeb Still or Cam Hart can. So offensive coordinators have been manipulating the Chargers into looks that expose this weakness by using motion away from Donteโs side, there’s no way to predict this when they come out of the huddle so the only way to prevent this would be to take Jackson off the field completely which would be harsh considering his coverage ability.
When you combine this with the lack of aggressive Edge setting from guys not named Mack and the lack of proper linebacker play from Troy Dye and Derwin James, it paints a picture of how this run weakness went from a niggle to a full blown problem. Jesseโs whole system is predicated on being able to fit the run with Minus box fits and Khalil Mack is a huge part of that.
As you can see from the Thinking Football video in the link earlier, Minter uses Mack to cheat back a gap by either collapsing down to force two lanes shut or he steps down to attack any pullers long before they reach their intended gap which again cuts off angles the offense are trying to open up. The team has tried to ask Tuli Tuipulotu to fill this role but he just doesn’t have that veteran speed of diagnosis yet and he hasn’t got the kind of all-world strength that Mack has, even if he’s been playing well overall.
As for the linebacker role, I’ve been disappointed with Troy Dyeโs play over the last three weeks, offenses have started to target his gap in the run fit and he’s just not stepping down early enough to cross a guard’s face in time. Derwin James’s attempts at being a proper linebacker have been even worse than Troy’s efforts, Derwin is an All-Pro talent at safety and nickel but in when he’s been asked to play in the box he’s shown that he is lacking the front foot forward instincts required to be as effective. Daiyan Henley isn’t playing well against the run either, I think he’s in his head too much but Denzel Perrymanโs return will hopefully help with that. It puts both players in a more natural role with Henley able to react to the pullers and attack with speed and Perryman able to slow play on the backside from his Mike alignment.
The interior defensive line, on the other hand, have been very good in my eyes. Jamaree Caldwell out-snapped every other player in that group for the first time all season which is a credit to his talent and hard work. Naquan Jones and Teair Tart are playing well against the run too, Minter has to find a way to get them on all the field together with the run issues.โThis will not only strengthen the interior but it will also give Minter the tools to play Sky Force on the back side with a more natural shift to Cover 3 rules.
The solution
When I looked at the formation data I was incredibly relieved that Minter has started to follow the league trends of shifting to more Base personnel. Despite being a team that’s focused on playing a 4-down front Nickel/Dime team, the Chargers’ base is technically a 3-4 defense with two of those linebackers playing in two-point stance on the edges. This look represents a stronger run answer and as stubborn as Minter was being in giving up the security coverage umbrella he has thrived on, it seems that he has let go of that to start to address the run game.
Play % per week in Base 3-4 personnel:
- Week 1 – 6.9%
- Week 2 – 6.2%
- Week 3 – 12.5%
- Week 4 – 15.9%
- Week 5 – 32.7%
- Week 6 – 28.6%
Numbers obtained from Sumer Brain
This change of approach from Minter provides me with hope that the Bolts are pragmatically addressing the issues instead of being stubborn in their beliefs and praying that as the team gets healthier, the results would improve on their own. Against the Dolphins this shift resulted in incremental improvements, with the odd front base personnel on the field the Bolts had an EPA per rush attempt of -0.037 which is a massive step in the right direction given their overall number is currently at +0.05.
The next question will be how will Minter handle being in sets with less pass-first players on the field. He has relied on playing Quarters and Cover 6 to stop explosive pass plays so but that will be very hard to do with 7 players in the run fit. He will need to get creative in his usage of his outside linebackers in flats coverage and his deployment of Derwin James will need to be spot on as it will be less effective to have him as one of the four defensive backs on the field so he will have to fill another role such as the edge rusher or linebacker.
That could be interesting as that would be similar to how Minter used Mike Sainristil at Michigan where he became the extra man no matter how the offense lined up. This was an exciting element of Minter’s scheme because Sainristil’s skill set allowed the Wolverines to call whatever they liked regardless of personnel. They could play Nickel against 12p or Base against 11p and be secure in the knowledge that he could step up or down as needed. Derwin has never looked as good when used as a chess piece because it was more coverage based but when you deploy him with the intent of fitting the run, he can focus on being downhill and not second guessing his assignment.
Ryan,
This is one of the best breakdown pieces you have done, and you have done some bangers already. As you may know I am a huge football geek for play breakdown and formation usage and the overall scheming that goes into play design both offensively and defensively.
After watching the first slide vs KC multiple times I asked what could have been done differently from the formation alone and I saw he possibility of some minor tweaks that could yield better results.
The way they aligned and fit that play, it left Mack to be the lynchpin of the stop. If that was any other Edge player currently on the roster, that is an explosive run and possibly a TD. The LB’s have to play with better discipline to not over pursue the play and still “stay home” to a degree to guard against the counter. It also wouldn’t hurt to have some bigger IDL that can 2 gap to occupy more OL and letting the LB scrape and flow to make tackles. Henly also can’t get stonewalled by a TE 5 yards downfield. Let me know what you think. Not saying these are concrete answers, but just a thought on some small things that could help with the fits/reads.
P.S.
I have been in Tarheebs shoes having come up from the secondary and take on pulling linemen as the dirty work on the play. I can’t say I blame him on the route he took. At the very least he reset the edge and forced the action back inside. That situation is not for the faint of heart, I can guarantee you.
Erick great to get your input one this! I’ll do my best to answer your points:
Ryan,
Thanks for the reply. I could see your points on the alignment, and we know there are a bunch of things Minter could do to help prevent this run, but as you know when you commit to plugging one hole, you can leave yourself exposed somewhere else. Sometimes you just need the talent in personnel to be the difference. The funny thing is Bosa would be a great answer to the weak side Edge because one of his strongest attributes was being able to use his arms to leverage the lineman and set a hard edge. His presence alone would probably be a factor in stopping this concept.
This is sensational analysis, Ryan. There’s no other Chargers writer I’m aware of who has the Xs&Os understanding to put together a piece of this quality. It makes everyone around here much more knowledgeable. Well done.
The one additional thing I’d have liked to see you add to this article is some more of the visual evidence to support your contention that Donte Jackson has been the main culprit in these shotgun weak side power/counter runs.
I remember watching all of the big runs allowed these past few weeks, and I just can’t remember ever thinking that Donte Jackson was the main problem on them. So now, I really want to go back and see! You’ve included one above so that’s at least one good example, but I’ll be keeping an eye out for it moving forward.
Great stuff.
I haven’t got to the All-22 from this week yet, but based on the broadcast watch, I think there will be one or two run defense reps Donte Jackson would like back.
He will not be alone.
Awesome article! Yet again I feel like I’m understanding more about football whenever I read one of your stories.
This also strengthens me in my immediate thoughts after the Achane long TD. I really felt it was a carbon copy of the Commanders RB TDs the week before and this article seems to confirm that. Or it doesn’t confirm it and I’m very much overestimating my Xs & Os knowledge ๏ปฟ ๐ ๏ปฟ
I always appreciate your feedback Arne so thank you! If it’s any help I learn something every time I go to write one of these too.
Trust your instincts, half the time they’re the best indicator before the tape comes out.
Hope you had an amazing time in NY btw.