We’ve just released Episode 145 of the Thunder Down Under Chargers Podcast.
Our synopsis is below:
“With 4 days until the 2026 NFL Draft, we’ve invited “Mr Xs&Os” himself, Ryan Watkins from The Powderkeg Podcast, back on the show for the Chargers’ Ultimate 2026 Draft Guide. Together, Ryan and Al share their views on this class based on 1,000+ hours of All-22 tape evaluation, working through all of the key position groups and the prospects they think best fit the Chargers’ needs. Will there be fierce disagreement between these two, headstrong and passionate, tape dawgs? Listen to find out #BoltFam!”
You can also listen on Spotify below (or download on audio wherever you like to listen to podcasts):
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Alister (@TDU_Alister)
Long time team fan, podcaster (with Thunder Down Under Chargers Podcast), husband to a beautiful wife, friend to all fellow Chargers fanatics, and father-to-be!
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As we get closer, the more I am starting to think we might see a curveball in the first round. As Popper and others have noted, the ideal scenario would be a trade down, BUT that seems very unlikely because the draft is so weak. Not sure who would want to trade up unless its for a specific player that inexplicably drops and isn’t a fit for the Chargers. I’d love to see this happen but seems unlikely.
So then that leaves them with a more perplexing question. It seems highly likely that whoever is left at a true position of “need’ is really a 2nd round graded player. This draft is so weak, there are probably only 15 players with 1st round grades.
Or do they take someone who isn’t a premium position but is a 1st round grade talent, and might still be sitting there? For example, Thieneman. That would be the curveball.
For the past month, I’ve personally been mostly enamored with adding a guy like Peter Woods or maybe an Edge, but the more I’ve read about all of these defenders, the more it seems the scout consensus is most of these guys are 2nd round grades. The same goes for the OL who will be left, also likely to be 2nd round grade types.
I think the Chargers fell into this same predicament last year, and ultimately took the highest graded player despite RB obviously not being the most premium position. They’re in that same trap this year.
I’d be interested in the team’s player grades. Pundits….even the best ones….don’t often look closely at team/scheme fits. A “consensus” grade doesn’t necessarily reflect what the team’s big board portrays.
I absolutely agree that it’s going to be very difficult to trade down and especially to receive appropriate compensation. But again….perhaps there’s a team whose board fits that scenario.
We’ll soon know. I (somewhat) unfortunately will be away from a TV until late Thursday night.
These reasons might be why the Chargers could take someone surprising like Kadyn Proctor, if he falls.
Hortiz has already flagged that he’d be prepared to take a college OT if the coaches project he can also contribute at Guard.
I only use this example because Proctor is my 9th ranked overall player in the class, but he has some warts given his terrible start to the 2025 season and fluctuating weight.
When you get the locked-in version of Proctor, he is extremely talented. And Duke Manyweather (who’s training him right now) says he’s got the right mental make-up to be an NFL star.
Many would hate this pick because he’s not an obvious McDaniel scheme fit (at 6’6 5/8″, 352 pounds). But I would find it a fairly exciting addition given the uncertainty around Slater’s healthsituation. 20yo 5-star tackles with his starting experience and traits do not grow on trees. He could be the “Hampton” pick of 2026. Just take your highest graded player.
In this scenario your “surprise” pick is still a position of need, but what if it was a WR, or S or LB just because they went by highest grade alone? Until my last breath I will believe that Hampton was a panic/default pick just falling back on the board. I think Hortiz was to stubborn in whatever package Philly was offering and when the clock got to far along, they just defaulted to the board to select Hampton. He can say all he wants that he was the target, but he’s lying. I fully believe that Harmon was the last “targeted” player which is why we took the clock down to the wire to select Hampton. If he was truly the guy they wanted they would have not waited that long to select him or field offers. Like the Alt pick. The phone rang and when they weren’t blown out of the water with an offer, they just stopped taking calls and made the pick.
Even the best draft has guys taken in the first round that have 2nd round grades. There has never been a draft I can remember where there were 22 or more 1st Rd graded players. This draft might not even have 15. I think I had 13 total on my grades, but I tend to be a conservative grader. One thing that is a factor for teams wanting to trade up is the ability of the 5th year option, especially at 22. If a team thinks they can get a good cost controlled player at a premium position (QB,WR,OT), then a trade up into or back into Rd 1 could be enticing. I would not mind a trade out of Rd1 to the top of Rd 2 and adding another top 100 pick. Houston might be willing to make that deal. They are a contender right now and have 4 top 100 picks, so maybe they feel the value of having 2 first round picks puts them over the top? I would absolutely do 22 for 38/59. That’s a difference of about 5 points on the chart, so it’s close enough to work. Other than that I think a day 2 trade down from 55 to add a pick more likely especially since they will see what positions are still stocked on day 2.
Been listening to the podcasts – just no time to comment. Been crazy busy opening our 5th location & starting work on #6 & #7 . Also have 3 sets of house guests this month: We have friends from Melbourne who visited the first week of April, my parents are visiting now & I have SD friends visiting next week. Anyway – I appreciate all the great content.
Ryan made a comment about retaining cap space not help win games now. After watching the Tom & John show for 13 years, I find the cap discipline refreshing. While I do think there needs to be a balance and there is definitely going to be a time to take a swing for the fences, we’re not playing Madden. The in-season cap space allowed Hortiz to trade for Oweh last season. Like it or not, this leadership team is not going to win a bidding war for the #1 FA of the cycle. I like it. I understand others do not.
The Bengals way over-paid for Lawrence. I would have been happy with a 2nd round pick. The 10th overall pick is far too much. The Chargers would have had to give up this and next year’s #1 , which is way too much. This years #1 is too much.
I’ve had jack-shit time to research prospects. I’m listening to as much as possible while multi-tasking with manual tasks/exercise. I do agree with the general consensus:
I will say this about the OL; The starting OL today is SIGNIFICANTLY better than the OL that started the playoff game. Two all-pro tackles and a better-than-average center is a huge upgrade. I understand some of the hate for Strange, but the dude is an athletic 1st round pick that played much better when he got healthier down the stretch. Don’t like the other guard personnel now, but think that situation will change before the season starts.
Good to hear from you, Kev!
I assumed you must have been very busy. Sounds hectic. Good luck with the businesses (and the house guests). Each can pose different problems 😂
You know, I think I’m in the minority on this. But I tend to think teams overvalue 1st round picks when they can be used to acquire an elite, established players.
The Eagles certainly don’t regret trading one for AJ Brown. I know Pick 10 is a different story. But Dexter Lawrence is a player still in his prime (at least in terms of age) who’s had 3x the pass rush pressure production from Nose Tackle than any other NFL DT since 2023.
In a weaker class, I think the Bengals acquired something so much more impactful than Pick 10 is ever likely to have brought them (although the cost in salary is also a relevant consideration). In any event, we would not have been able to match that without sending multiple picks or our 2027 first. So I understand why we weren’t the acquiring team here.
Agree with your other comments mate.
Enjoy the Draft (if you get any time to watch part of it!)
I would tend to agree about using the asset to acquire a player of Lawrence’s magnitude. I guess the Bengals feel the division is there for the taking if they can just find some consistency on offense and Burrow stays healthy. if they feel their team is in a window to make a run, Lawrence is going to have a more immediate impact for them. My concern is that after he got paid in 2024, he came into 2025 camp out of shape and had his worst season. Then he was unhappy about the contract he just signed and wanted more $ which prompted the impasse. I think the Giants did the right thing there. They shouldn’t be in the business of renegotiating 2 year old, high salary contracts to players who didn’t perform and want more $. Especially getting the #10 overall is great for their new regime.
If Lawrence is motivated, he could really help the Bengals immediately and the Giants need the draft picks to start building the team under Harbaugh. I think this is a situation where both teams are getting exactly what they want.
The more I get into building our business, the less time I have for other shit. Its both rewarding and frustrating. When I worked for “Large Consulting Firm,” I had lots of people to do stuff and a huge machine behind me. Right now, I am the backstop.
I don’t disagree with your Lawrence take and think that the lower you pick in the 1st, the less likely it is that you’re going to draft a dude that’s going to make an immediate impact (like Lawrence). So, I get the point. My concerns are:
I wholeheartedly agree and endorse the idea. But there’s one wrinkle. While we could get a serviceable guard at 55, there is no way we could one of the Edge top players, of which there are many. They’ll all be gone by pick 40.
Well, maybe Jacas could still be there at 55.
I honestly wouldn’t mind him. He’s more power than speed, but he has some juice off the edge so he’s not a pure power player. I like Zion Young also, but he has some character issues and the Chargers as an organization have mostly steered clear of anyone in that boat.
I’m not sure why Hortiz would appear to expect Hand to play more than 50% of the defensive snaps this season for Atlanta. He has only done it in one season of his 8 year career. In his favor, that one season was in 2024, and he would have played that many in 2025 if he didn’t go on IR for 4 games… but in the 5 previous seasons, he played just 15.6% of the collective defensive snaps.
And Ogbonnia has never done it. He has played 1038 defensive snaps in 4 career seasons. He was only close to 50% once, when he played 46.1% in 2024 (but played terribly).
I hope it happens, of course, I just don’t see much reason for optimism.
Agree 100%. IMO, they are using the play% chance to recoup a comp pick to try and deflect the negative commentary on their off season process to build the team. Make fans think it was a purposeful strategy instead of cheap. Hortiz would be a great magician.
Thanks Tau. We gave you a couple different shout outs on this show, basically asking you to do some data analysis that we were too lazy to undertakeourselves 😛
On Tito, I totally agree.
On Hand, I think it’s a risky strategy to bank your hopes on him playing 50% snap share in 2026. But I can see why they’re feeling optimistic about it. Hand established himself as a starter in Base for the Chargers by the second half of the season, and the Chargers were a Top 10 Defense. One would hope that the Falcons, whose IDL is questionable at best, will view him as a foundational piece this season.
I’m still not comfortable with this strategy though. I wish Pipkins had signed elsewhere for good swing tackle money. Our faith needn’t have been placed in another team’s usage and injury luck like this.
Good thought. I have only listened to the first 45 mins or so but also while multitasking. I haven’t been around as much over the past few weeks due to a family situation.
For some reason I was motivated to look up the Hand snaps today because it didn’t ring true for me, but I’ll probably be more of a listener/reader for a while, since it remains a positive distraction.
Sorry to hear about the family situation, Tau.
Hope everything is going ok (or as best it can).
Good to hear from you. Hope things turn around. Enjoy the draft this week.