We’ve just released Episode 149 of the Thunder Down Under Chargers Podcast.
Our synopsis is below:
Training Camp is in full flight (or as Harbaugh likes to call it, glide mode). With the first padded practice over in San Diego, it is time to take stock of the week’s action and share our biggest Charger takeaways on TDU. We then move onto our first 2026 Opponent Series segment of the offseason, breaking down the NFC West and the challenges presented by this fearsome division. Don’t miss it!
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Long time team fan, podcaster (with Thunder Down Under Chargers Podcast), husband to a beautiful wife, friend to all fellow Chargers fanatics, and father-to-be!
Something you guys didn’t mention unless I missed it: Tuli is just 23 years old, turning 24 in September. He is not yet in his prime.
IMO Andy saying he should be in high 20s suggests to me you would not be getting an agreement with him. IMO it will take low 30s to sign him. If they don’t want to do that, they won’t be able to sign him and should seriously consider trading him.
I think it’s a tricky negotiation. I think Tuli barely passes if your test for what constitutes a great pass rusher is “With the game in the balance on 3rd & 8, will you impact the passer”?
For Tuli, I think there are probably 30 rushers in the League whom I’d trust in this scenario ahead of him. He’s not particularly quick off the ball, nor does he win quickly. (Still only 23yo as you mention though).
Is that a reductionist methodology for judging the worth of a pass rusher? Almost certainly. Yet if you look at the Top 8 highest paid Edge Rushers, they’re probably amongst the first 8 you’d list in response to my hypotehtial test?
What would your answer be if you were Hortiz? I thought the Chiefs made an error extending Karlaftis, and I tend to side with Hortiz that you should not pay top tier money for second tier players. I’m worried that’s exactly what we’ll be doing if we pay Tuli a $30m+ AAV contract.
One decision won’t make or break your roster. Tuli is a good player and perhaps ‘overpaying him’ on this deal is fine in the context of the current team cap space situation.
First, I’m sure you know this, but I’d like to point out that Tuli is younger than Mesidor… almost a year and a half younger. Think about that. Tuli has 3 NFL seasons under his belt, and they are good seasons.
Second, what I take from the list in your X post is this: I would rather sign Tuli to a 3+ year deal than any other player below Bosa on your list. Age is a factor in that, as is the likelihood that Tuli has more improvement ahead of him than most of those players, since he has not even reached his prime yet.
Third, given that Hortiz is loathe to spend cap space on premium free agents, it is necessary to extend a player of Tuli’s caliber, as it is the only way to get one long term.
Fourth, if you have a home grown, strong performing, strong character player who you are willing to extend, IMO it is worth overpaying to some degree to extend him. Though, frankly, I don’t see anything less than $34M/year as overpaying.
Lastly, on this: “With the game in the balance on 3rd & 8, will you impact the passer?” Consider this 2025 data from PFF:
1. 91st in percentage of pass rush snaps per passing snap played (89.7%) 2. 10th in pressures on all snaps (75) 3. Tied for 8th in pressures against true pass sets (50) 4. Tied for 7th in sacks on all snaps (14) 5. Tied for 5th in sacks against true pass sets (10) 6. Tied for 7th in PRP (defined as “A formula that combines sacks, hits and hurries relative to how many times they rush the passer”) on all snaps (10.7) 7. 5th in PRP against true pass sets (16.1)
8. Tied for 50th in win rate on all snaps (12.3%), as you noted
9. 44th in win rate against true pass sets (17.7%)
10. 27th in PFF pass rush grade for all snaps (73.7)
11. 14th in PFF pass rush grade against true pass sets (83.6)
12. He did all this while playing 160 special teams snaps. I doubt any of his peers (edge players above and/or close to his likely salary range) are doing that. And this should stop going forward… hopefully, this season.
Given all of this, does the win rate really matter? The true pass set data is really strong. Does that make you rethink the answer to your question?
IMO they should pay him up to $34M/year if that is what it takes.
You touched on this part. I don’t think this front office should underestimate the culture reinforcement extending Tuli brings. If draft, develop, and retain is truly the intent, here’s a very good way to prove it. Tuli is worth the investment on more than one level, IMO, especially with Mack’s age.
Some thoughts orbiting my mind as I read through your post:
Of the players below Nick Bosa on the list, I would take Bonitto > Tuli; but I agree, factoring in age/character/depth of his game, Tuli would be higher for me than guys like Hendrickson and all of the others. It’s a good way of thinking about it.
Tuli’s youth demands praise. Personally, I do not view his youth as especially indicative of a high future ceiling. And that’s because he’s always been a physically well-developed player and he benefited from learning next to Mack from his rookie year onward. That doesn’t mean he shouldn’t be paid on the assumption that there will be some incremental future improvement. But I wouldn’t bet banking on some elite upside based on untapped physical or technical potential (as you might an ascending player who’s still growing into his frame).
Again on the Khalil factor. How often has Tuli had to deal with an Offense doubling him and trying to scheme him out of the game? We got to see this put to the test in a sample of games last year after Mack went down. In some, Tuli thrived. I also think of games like the Commanders and Jags games where Tuli really struggled last year.
I know Andy and Jack asked whether “Tuli is a number one?” on the show last week. My response to that is he’s definitely a number one Edge on a team, but is he a low-end, average or high-end one? I think if Tuli is the number one Edge on your team then you probably have an average group. That is, a little fewer than half the teams would have a better number one pass rusher. I say that acknowledging your data points above. But one interpretation of Tuli’s mediocre win rate v good (but not great) pass rush grade v elite production is that scheme has helped him. Something is helping him be productive despite not “winning” on first contact against the OL at a high rate. Opposition QBs must be holding the ball too long (due to tight coverage or coverage disguise). Do you know if there’s data available on which defenses got to face the most third and longs last season? Wonder if this helped his production line too.
I think your points about extending Tuli being aligned to Hortiz’s team-building philosophy, culturally appropriate, etc, are all well made. You could also take the position that Tuli has brought incredible value (cf his contract price) these past three years so paying him a few million APY above what his talents objectively might demand, isn’t worth the fight.
For me, $34m APY is more money than Tuli’s talent (and likely future value) warrants and I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a modest statisical regression from him this year. But I don’t think it would be a terrible deal that holds the team back or anything. I’m hopeful it will land closer to $30m which, to me, is still a slight overpay.
Whatever the figure, let’s get this done soon so we’re not impacting his preparation for the upcoming season.
Of the players below Nick Bosa on the list, I would take Bonitto > Tuli; but I agree, factoring in age/character/depth of his game, Tuli would be higher for me than guys like Hendrickson and all of the others. It’s a good way of thinking about it.
Not sure I get why you would favor Bonitto. First 3 seasons for each, per PFF:
Defensive snaps: Tuli 2417, Bonitto 1642Pass rush snaps: Tuli 1306, Bonitto 892Pressures: Tuli 169, Bonitto 127Sacks: Tuli 31, Bonitto 26Tackles: Tuli 84 + 29 assists, Bonitto 52 + 18 assistsMissed tackles: Tuli 40, Bonitto 27Stops: Tuli 88, Bonitto 55Forced fumbles: Tuli 5, Bonitto 3Batted passes: Tuli 4, Bonitto 0Special teams snaps: Tuli 727, Bonitto 74Obviously, Tuli played a lot more defensive snaps, almost 50% more, and that explains why his cumulative production numbers are all higher than Bonitto’s. But… Tuli earned ~50% more snaps than Bonitto in their respective first three years.
And each of Tuli’s first 3 years came at an age that was about 2 years younger than Bonitto in his first 3 years, meaning Bonitto should theoretically have had an advantage. Bonitto is about 3 years older and is in his prime. Tuli has not yet reached his prime.
I wouldn’t trade Tuli for Bonitto.
Do you know if there’s data available on which defenses got to face the most third and longs last season? Wonder if this helped his production line too.
One could go through the teams and manually compile PFF’s snaps vs. true pass sets for each team or go through PFR splits to manually compile “3rd and long” or whatever combo one wants, but I”m not aware of anywhere the data you are asking for is aggregated. It would be interesting to see.
That said, IMO it is questionable if facing more true pass sets would be a positive or negative for a player’s production line. Positive is the player can pass rush without regard to a possible run, other than a possible QB scramble. Negative is the offense knows it is 3rd and long and could devote more resources to pass blocking. It may be that the net result is that it favors pass rushers, I’m not sure.
For me, $34m APY is more money than Tuli’s talent (and likely future value) warrants and I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a modest statisical regression from him this year. But I don’t think it would be a terrible deal that holds the team back or anything. I’m hopeful it will land closer to $30m which, to me, is still a slight overpay.
Don’t get me wrong, I don’t want them to pay him $34M APY. I would much prefer $30M. But, like you, I think the most important thing is to get it done ASAP.
Obviously bitten by the formatting monster here. Should have known and written everthing with line breaks. Kyle DeDiminicantanio , would be nice if we could stop the formatting of lists into paragraphs.
I’m sorry I’ve been MIA for so long, but I won’t be able to work on the site for some time.
My toddler has been going through a really tough sleep regression where she’s afraid to fall asleep by herself, and panics when she wakes up and we’re not in her room with her, so I’ve been sleeping a few hours a night on her floor until she falls asleep/goes back down. The night and morning hours where I could work on stuff are gone right now, and any time I can squeeze out I’ve needed to focus on work which has been really slow moving as well.
I was already trying to take a step back from working on the site to focus on growing my real estate business before my daughters sleep issues, and now with the sleep stuff going on my time is completely shot.
I’ll be back here eventually but right now the homefront needs my undivided attention.
The formatting monster made this a little tough for me to read.
My opinion on Tuli v Bonitto might be skewed by the 2x performances Bonitto had against the Chargers last year.
I get to watch both guys on the All-22; Tuli 17 times per year. Bonitto twice. And I think it comes down to what you value .
Bonitto is a pass rush specialist and one of the best in the League at it. Somewhat undersized speed rusher who will wreck the game if your entire protection plan isn’t focussed on stopping him doing so. He’s just too fast and bendy for most of his opponents. If you have the misfortune of having to start a depth OL against Bonitto, good luck to you. It’s all over.
With a 2024 Second Team All-Pro to his name, and 142 pressures/33 sacks over the past two seasons, I think Bonitto is closer to being a Tier 1, than Tier 2, pass rusher.
I don’t view Tuli as presenting anything like the pass rush threat Bonitto does and I very much doubt that opposing OCs worry about Tuli “wrecking the game” in the same way. He doesn’t really threaten the corner and you don’t need to send chip help to help your Offensive Tackle against Tuli.
Tuli’s just a solid all-around player who does everything well. He isn’t elite at any one thing but he’s reliable with no major weaknesses.
Bonitto is a unicorn pass rusher who struggles to defend the run and is therefore more one-dimensional.
If you value one of those skill sets higher than the other I think that’s what you’ll spend your money. I think it’s generally easier to find Tulis in the Draft, than it is to find Bonittos. But that’s just me.
Sure, sacks and QB pressures are important, but what about run stops and containment? I think you’re downplaying the importance and scarcity of guys who can do it all at Tuli’s proven level, Al ….AND, at the risk of repeating myself, at his age. He’s been durable, he’s shown an incredible work ethic, and he’s the poster boy for retaining drafted talent, a stated priority for Hortiz.
I certainly don’t expect or advocate for this contract to reset the market. That’s not logical or realistic. But I do think it would be colosally stupid to blow this, particularly with Mack’s age and eventual retirement. There’s plenty of tangible and intangible reasons to get a new contract done at a fair market rate along the lines of what I proposed and you said later, Al. 4 yrs, $120M, 90M guaranteed. Add incentives as needed if that helps.
That deal sounds good to me, Buck. I would not baulk at that price.
When you say it would be ‘colossally stupid for the Chargers to blow this’, I think that really depends on Tuli’s management and what they’re asking for, right?
Because unless you advocate a ‘blank cheque’ situation, and it doesn’t sound like you do, the Chargers need to set a reasonable ceiling on their negotiations.
For players like Slater, Herbert and Derwin (amongst the best at their position) I usually don’t care to split hairs and I’m happy for them to be paid at the top of the market. But I don’t view Tuli as that type of player. If you asked me whether he’s closer to being a superstar or ‘just a guy’, I would not immediately answer ‘superstar’.
I could be downplaying the scarcity and value of “do it all Defenders” like Tuli. But here, specifically, we’re talking about what skillset demands a price of $30m APY+.
So far, that type of deal has never been offered historically to a player with Tuli’s relative lack of pass-rush win rate ability. And maybe that’s fine. Tuli can be the first to be paid very handsomely for being a complete player?
I’ll let Ryan have the last word on this for now (from a former coach’s perspective). I asked him about Tuli v Bonitto and his response was:
It’s more about what their impact is on the rest of your defensive structure. Tuli allows players like Tart to be as aggressive as he is and negates the need for an elite LB to fit the run but Bonitto means that the Offense either has to keep an extra man in protection or rely on quick game. That allows his corners to play aggressive man coverage.
You ask any DC in the game and they’ll tell you that the latter is the preferred profile. Pressure is everything at the end of the day, the rest is a welcome bonus.
As you noted, I would abandon my colossally stupid position if the demands were outlandish. Based upon the professionalism Tuli has shown to date, I don’t believe that that will be the case. My concern is that we let him walk next year for even a third round comp pick. IMO, that would earn the colossally stupid tag, not only for losing a quality young player but also by undercutting the idea of rewarding/retaining those players. Players around the league pay attention, as do potential draft picks.
I still believe a deal will get done. My anxiety does rise a bit each time I see another contract successfully negotiated and it isn’t Tuli. But ending the “hold-in” is, I hope, a positive sign.
Jack I do the McDaniels/McDonald thing way too much since I also follow the Hawks. So far in Camp, Jadarian Price sounds like he’s going to have a chance for ROTY with how seamless his transition has been. The murky status on Emmanwori could be a big deal though that isn’t being talked about. Really cool they’re on Hard Knocks if you follow that. I don’t think the loss of Kubiak will be that big and we’ll see if he’s ready to coach in the AFCW where he might be in over his head.
Agree with Alister about 5 WRs on this team on gameday and when you start parsing out what the Active 46 will look like I’ve got this right now.
Thanks Duck! I’ve shared your McDaniel/McDonald note with Jack.
Just to let you inside our podcast prep, I’ve attached my notes for the Seahawks discussion from that segment.
So you have KLS, Mickens and Colson all missing the boat at the minute. I think Mickens would probably a find a way in, but something has to give. You could be right.
One cool nugget for the Seahawks is that while everyone knows about Grey Zabel at LG, the Center Jalen Sundell is a year older and they were teammates at North Dakota State the D2 powerhouse.
In attacking Seattle’s OL I think the C/RG A gap would be your best bet but I also don’t think Charles Cross is an Elite LT but merely a good one.
I’d say that 7 sacks stat is a bit misleading for them last year as evidenced by them keeping Derrick Hall over Boye Mafe where Mafe was the sack leader over Hall but Hall had a huge pressure rate that just didn’t seem to turn into sacks until the Super bowl.
On the roster I do think that 5th Safety spot is going to be the most difficult to project and Mickens and Smith may split some time on who is Active on Gameday and who is not. KLS may also be someone who makes the 53 but isn’t Active.
With Colson, I’ve already stated I’d like to see the team sign Bobby Wagner even if he’d likely push Perryman into a backup role but I can’t give Colson the benefit of the doubt until I see him do something on the field that looks better than what we’re getting from Marlowe Wax.
I seriously doubt Barrett would be active over Phillips (special teams).
If the team calls up 2 PS players, they get 48 active players. In addition to thinking Phillips is in over Barrett, I would think 2 DBs would be prioritized, probably Reed and/or Mickens.
Watching now and had to ask while it’s fresh in my mind….Al, did you see my response to Duck07 a week or so ago re: Tuli’s contract? I said $120M/4yrs, $90M guaranteed….exactly your response on the podcast. 🙂
I’ll give it a listen but if it doesn’t reference Kyle De’s article on here about the Guard position not being broken but being on brand then you guys are forgetting that great piece he wrote in March! I think cautious optimism is where we should be with the Guards right now and giving McDaniels and the new OL coach the benefit of the doubt.
We didn’t refer to Kyle’s article on the show and, you’re right, it was a missed opportunity!
We posted this tweet on our TDU page back in March and then I think Kyle wrote his article on Stormcloud a little after that, following a number of discussions we were having on the topic in our private Messenger thread:
So we’re on board with the idea that de-prioritising the position might be deliberate. We also saw the Seahawks win a Super Bowl with only 1 of its 3 interior OL being an above average player. It can be done.
Something you guys didn’t mention unless I missed it: Tuli is just 23 years old, turning 24 in September. He is not yet in his prime.
IMO Andy saying he should be in high 20s suggests to me you would not be getting an agreement with him. IMO it will take low 30s to sign him. If they don’t want to do that, they won’t be able to sign him and should seriously consider trading him.
Thanks Tau
I think it’s a tricky negotiation. I think Tuli barely passes if your test for what constitutes a great pass rusher is “With the game in the balance on 3rd & 8, will you impact the passer”?
For Tuli, I think there are probably 30 rushers in the League whom I’d trust in this scenario ahead of him. He’s not particularly quick off the ball, nor does he win quickly. (Still only 23yo as you mention though).
Is that a reductionist methodology for judging the worth of a pass rusher? Almost certainly. Yet if you look at the Top 8 highest paid Edge Rushers, they’re probably amongst the first 8 you’d list in response to my hypotehtial test?
I posted this to X shortly ago: https://x.com/TDU_Chargers/status/2086269931423985735
What would your answer be if you were Hortiz? I thought the Chiefs made an error extending Karlaftis, and I tend to side with Hortiz that you should not pay top tier money for second tier players. I’m worried that’s exactly what we’ll be doing if we pay Tuli a $30m+ AAV contract.
One decision won’t make or break your roster. Tuli is a good player and perhaps ‘overpaying him’ on this deal is fine in the context of the current team cap space situation.
First, I’m sure you know this, but I’d like to point out that Tuli is younger than Mesidor… almost a year and a half younger. Think about that. Tuli has 3 NFL seasons under his belt, and they are good seasons.
Second, what I take from the list in your X post is this: I would rather sign Tuli to a 3+ year deal than any other player below Bosa on your list. Age is a factor in that, as is the likelihood that Tuli has more improvement ahead of him than most of those players, since he has not even reached his prime yet.
Third, given that Hortiz is loathe to spend cap space on premium free agents, it is necessary to extend a player of Tuli’s caliber, as it is the only way to get one long term.
Fourth, if you have a home grown, strong performing, strong character player who you are willing to extend, IMO it is worth overpaying to some degree to extend him. Though, frankly, I don’t see anything less than $34M/year as overpaying.
Lastly, on this: “With the game in the balance on 3rd & 8, will you impact the passer?” Consider this 2025 data from PFF:
1. 91st in percentage of pass rush snaps per passing snap played (89.7%)
2. 10th in pressures on all snaps (75)
3. Tied for 8th in pressures against true pass sets (50)
4. Tied for 7th in sacks on all snaps (14)
5. Tied for 5th in sacks against true pass sets (10)
6. Tied for 7th in PRP (defined as “A formula that combines sacks, hits and hurries relative to how many times they rush the passer”) on all snaps (10.7)
7. 5th in PRP against true pass sets (16.1)
8. Tied for 50th in win rate on all snaps (12.3%), as you noted
9. 44th in win rate against true pass sets (17.7%)
10. 27th in PFF pass rush grade for all snaps (73.7)
11. 14th in PFF pass rush grade against true pass sets (83.6)
12. He did all this while playing 160 special teams snaps. I doubt any of his peers (edge players above and/or close to his likely salary range) are doing that. And this should stop going forward… hopefully, this season.
Given all of this, does the win rate really matter? The true pass set data is really strong. Does that make you rethink the answer to your question?
IMO they should pay him up to $34M/year if that is what it takes.
Good post Tau.
You touched on this part. I don’t think this front office should underestimate the culture reinforcement extending Tuli brings. If draft, develop, and retain is truly the intent, here’s a very good way to prove it. Tuli is worth the investment on more than one level, IMO, especially with Mack’s age.
Nice compilation of data, Tau.
Some thoughts orbiting my mind as I read through your post:
Whatever the figure, let’s get this done soon so we’re not impacting his preparation for the upcoming season.
Not sure I get why you would favor Bonitto. First 3 seasons for each, per PFF:
Defensive snaps: Tuli 2417, Bonitto 1642Pass rush snaps: Tuli 1306, Bonitto 892Pressures: Tuli 169, Bonitto 127Sacks: Tuli 31, Bonitto 26Tackles: Tuli 84 + 29 assists, Bonitto 52 + 18 assistsMissed tackles: Tuli 40, Bonitto 27Stops: Tuli 88, Bonitto 55Forced fumbles: Tuli 5, Bonitto 3Batted passes: Tuli 4, Bonitto 0Special teams snaps: Tuli 727, Bonitto 74Obviously, Tuli played a lot more defensive snaps, almost 50% more, and that explains why his cumulative production numbers are all higher than Bonitto’s. But… Tuli earned ~50% more snaps than Bonitto in their respective first three years.
And each of Tuli’s first 3 years came at an age that was about 2 years younger than Bonitto in his first 3 years, meaning Bonitto should theoretically have had an advantage. Bonitto is about 3 years older and is in his prime. Tuli has not yet reached his prime.
I wouldn’t trade Tuli for Bonitto.
One could go through the teams and manually compile PFF’s snaps vs. true pass sets for each team or go through PFR splits to manually compile “3rd and long” or whatever combo one wants, but I”m not aware of anywhere the data you are asking for is aggregated. It would be interesting to see.
That said, IMO it is questionable if facing more true pass sets would be a positive or negative for a player’s production line. Positive is the player can pass rush without regard to a possible run, other than a possible QB scramble. Negative is the offense knows it is 3rd and long and could devote more resources to pass blocking. It may be that the net result is that it favors pass rushers, I’m not sure.
Don’t get me wrong, I don’t want them to pay him $34M APY. I would much prefer $30M. But, like you, I think the most important thing is to get it done ASAP.
Obviously bitten by the formatting monster here. Should have known and written everthing with line breaks.
Kyle DeDiminicantanio , would be nice if we could stop the formatting of lists into paragraphs.
I’m sorry I’ve been MIA for so long, but I won’t be able to work on the site for some time.
My toddler has been going through a really tough sleep regression where she’s afraid to fall asleep by herself, and panics when she wakes up and we’re not in her room with her, so I’ve been sleeping a few hours a night on her floor until she falls asleep/goes back down. The night and morning hours where I could work on stuff are gone right now, and any time I can squeeze out I’ve needed to focus on work which has been really slow moving as well.
I was already trying to take a step back from working on the site to focus on growing my real estate business before my daughters sleep issues, and now with the sleep stuff going on my time is completely shot.
I’ll be back here eventually but right now the homefront needs my undivided attention.
Miss you guys though!
The formatting monster made this a little tough for me to read.
My opinion on Tuli v Bonitto might be skewed by the 2x performances Bonitto had against the Chargers last year.
I get to watch both guys on the All-22; Tuli 17 times per year. Bonitto twice. And I think it comes down to what you value .
Bonitto is a pass rush specialist and one of the best in the League at it. Somewhat undersized speed rusher who will wreck the game if your entire protection plan isn’t focussed on stopping him doing so. He’s just too fast and bendy for most of his opponents. If you have the misfortune of having to start a depth OL against Bonitto, good luck to you. It’s all over.
With a 2024 Second Team All-Pro to his name, and 142 pressures/33 sacks over the past two seasons, I think Bonitto is closer to being a Tier 1, than Tier 2, pass rusher.
I don’t view Tuli as presenting anything like the pass rush threat Bonitto does and I very much doubt that opposing OCs worry about Tuli “wrecking the game” in the same way. He doesn’t really threaten the corner and you don’t need to send chip help to help your Offensive Tackle against Tuli.
If you value one of those skill sets higher than the other I think that’s what you’ll spend your money. I think it’s generally easier to find Tulis in the Draft, than it is to find Bonittos. But that’s just me.
Sure, sacks and QB pressures are important, but what about run stops and containment? I think you’re downplaying the importance and scarcity of guys who can do it all at Tuli’s proven level, Al ….AND, at the risk of repeating myself, at his age. He’s been durable, he’s shown an incredible work ethic, and he’s the poster boy for retaining drafted talent, a stated priority for Hortiz.
I certainly don’t expect or advocate for this contract to reset the market. That’s not logical or realistic. But I do think it would be colosally stupid to blow this, particularly with Mack’s age and eventual retirement. There’s plenty of tangible and intangible reasons to get a new contract done at a fair market rate along the lines of what I proposed and you said later, Al. 4 yrs, $120M, 90M guaranteed. Add incentives as needed if that helps.
Pro Bowler’s Dominating Practice Day Re-Sparks Contract Chatter for Chargers – HEAVY https://share.google/qRaAs12rInNA6S2id
That deal sounds good to me, Buck. I would not baulk at that price.
When you say it would be ‘colossally stupid for the Chargers to blow this’, I think that really depends on Tuli’s management and what they’re asking for, right?
Because unless you advocate a ‘blank cheque’ situation, and it doesn’t sound like you do, the Chargers need to set a reasonable ceiling on their negotiations.
For players like Slater, Herbert and Derwin (amongst the best at their position) I usually don’t care to split hairs and I’m happy for them to be paid at the top of the market. But I don’t view Tuli as that type of player. If you asked me whether he’s closer to being a superstar or ‘just a guy’, I would not immediately answer ‘superstar’.
I could be downplaying the scarcity and value of “do it all Defenders” like Tuli. But here, specifically, we’re talking about what skillset demands a price of $30m APY+.
So far, that type of deal has never been offered historically to a player with Tuli’s relative lack of pass-rush win rate ability. And maybe that’s fine. Tuli can be the first to be paid very handsomely for being a complete player?
I’ll let Ryan have the last word on this for now (from a former coach’s perspective). I asked him about Tuli v Bonitto and his response was:
As you noted, I would abandon my colossally stupid position if the demands were outlandish. Based upon the professionalism Tuli has shown to date, I don’t believe that that will be the case. My concern is that we let him walk next year for even a third round comp pick. IMO, that would earn the colossally stupid tag, not only for losing a quality young player but also by undercutting the idea of rewarding/retaining those players. Players around the league pay attention, as do potential draft picks.
I still believe a deal will get done. My anxiety does rise a bit each time I see another contract successfully negotiated and it isn’t Tuli. But ending the “hold-in” is, I hope, a positive sign.
Jack I do the McDaniels/McDonald thing way too much since I also follow the Hawks. So far in Camp, Jadarian Price sounds like he’s going to have a chance for ROTY with how seamless his transition has been. The murky status on Emmanwori could be a big deal though that isn’t being talked about. Really cool they’re on Hard Knocks if you follow that. I don’t think the loss of Kubiak will be that big and we’ll see if he’s ready to coach in the AFCW where he might be in over his head.
Agree with Alister about 5 WRs on this team on gameday and when you start parsing out what the Active 46 will look like I’ve got this right now.
Offensive 22
QB: Herbert, Lance
RB: Hampton, Mitchell, Vidal, Ingold
WR: QJ, Ladd, Tre, BT, DD
TE: OG, Kolar, Njoku (Ingold)
OL: Slater, Awosika, Biadasz, Strange, Alt / Slaughter, Burke, Pipkins/Penning
Defensive 21
DL: Tart, Caldwell, Tomlinson, Eboigbe, Barrett
Edge: Mack, Tuli, Mesidor, Tucker
LB: Henley, Perryman, Dye, Wax
CB: Still, Hart, Jackson, Leonard
S: Derwin, Molden, Jefferson, Genesis
Special Teams 3
Dicker, Scott, Harris
Thanks Duck! I’ve shared your McDaniel/McDonald note with Jack.
Just to let you inside our podcast prep, I’ve attached my notes for the Seahawks discussion from that segment.
So you have KLS, Mickens and Colson all missing the boat at the minute. I think Mickens would probably a find a way in, but something has to give. You could be right.
One cool nugget for the Seahawks is that while everyone knows about Grey Zabel at LG, the Center Jalen Sundell is a year older and they were teammates at North Dakota State the D2 powerhouse.
In attacking Seattle’s OL I think the C/RG A gap would be your best bet but I also don’t think Charles Cross is an Elite LT but merely a good one.
I’d say that 7 sacks stat is a bit misleading for them last year as evidenced by them keeping Derrick Hall over Boye Mafe where Mafe was the sack leader over Hall but Hall had a huge pressure rate that just didn’t seem to turn into sacks until the Super bowl.
On the roster I do think that 5th Safety spot is going to be the most difficult to project and Mickens and Smith may split some time on who is Active on Gameday and who is not. KLS may also be someone who makes the 53 but isn’t Active.
With Colson, I’ve already stated I’d like to see the team sign Bobby Wagner even if he’d likely push Perryman into a backup role but I can’t give Colson the benefit of the doubt until I see him do something on the field that looks better than what we’re getting from Marlowe Wax.
I seriously doubt Barrett would be active over Phillips (special teams).
If the team calls up 2 PS players, they get 48 active players. In addition to thinking Phillips is in over Barrett, I would think 2 DBs would be prioritized, probably Reed and/or Mickens.
Watching now and had to ask while it’s fresh in my mind….Al, did you see my response to Duck07 a week or so ago re: Tuli’s contract? I said $120M/4yrs, $90M guaranteed….exactly your response on the podcast. 🙂
Plagiarism!
😂
😆 😆 😆
Have to be honest Buck, I didn’t see your response to Duck and I plucked those numbers on the show from my mind ‘on the spot’.
I had a note in front of me on what the top edge rushers are being paid, that’s it.
Maybe I visited Stormcloud in my sleep and the info entered my mind subliminally 😆 Or, we are connected via ESP
Let’s go ESP. 😅
I’ll give it a listen but if it doesn’t reference Kyle De’s article on here about the Guard position not being broken but being on brand then you guys are forgetting that great piece he wrote in March! I think cautious optimism is where we should be with the Guards right now and giving McDaniels and the new OL coach the benefit of the doubt.
Thanks Duck
We didn’t refer to Kyle’s article on the show and, you’re right, it was a missed opportunity!
We posted this tweet on our TDU page back in March and then I think Kyle wrote his article on Stormcloud a little after that, following a number of discussions we were having on the topic in our private Messenger thread:
https://x.com/TDU_Chargers/status/2031518425517010949
So we’re on board with the idea that de-prioritising the position might be deliberate. We also saw the Seahawks win a Super Bowl with only 1 of its 3 interior OL being an above average player. It can be done.
And you did reference the idea of guards not being prioritized….but not Kyle’s article.