We’ve just released Episode 149 of the Thunder Down Under Chargers Podcast.

Our synopsis is below:

Training Camp is in full flight (or as Harbaugh likes to call it, glide mode). With the first padded practice over in San Diego, it is time to take stock of the week’s action and share our biggest Charger takeaways on TDU. We then move onto our first 2026 Opponent Series segment of the offseason, breaking down the NFC West and the challenges presented by this fearsome division. Don’t miss it!

You can also listen on Spotify below (or download on audio wherever you like to listen to podcasts):

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Hope you enjoy the episode! Thanks so much for listening 🙂

Alister (@TDU_Alister)

AL
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TDU_Alister
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Long time team fan, podcaster (with Thunder Down Under Chargers Podcast), husband to a beautiful wife, friend to all fellow Chargers fanatics, and father-to-be!

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Tau837
Tau837(@tau837)
Member
1 month ago

Something you guys didn’t mention unless I missed it: Tuli is just 23 years old, turning 24 in September. He is not yet in his prime.

IMO Andy saying he should be in high 20s suggests to me you would not be getting an agreement with him. IMO it will take low 30s to sign him. If they don’t want to do that, they won’t be able to sign him and should seriously consider trading him.

Tau837
Tau837(@tau837)
Member
Reply to  TDU_Alister
1 month ago

First, I’m sure you know this, but I’d like to point out that Tuli is younger than Mesidor… almost a year and a half younger. Think about that. Tuli has 3 NFL seasons under his belt, and they are good seasons.

Second, what I take from the list in your X post is this: I would rather sign Tuli to a 3+ year deal than any other player below Bosa on your list. Age is a factor in that, as is the likelihood that Tuli has more improvement ahead of him than most of those players, since he has not even reached his prime yet.

Third, given that Hortiz is loathe to spend cap space on premium free agents, it is necessary to extend a player of Tuli’s caliber, as it is the only way to get one long term.

Fourth, if you have a home grown, strong performing, strong character player who you are willing to extend, IMO it is worth overpaying to some degree to extend him. Though, frankly, I don’t see anything less than $34M/year as overpaying.

Lastly, on this: “With the game in the balance on 3rd & 8, will you impact the passer?” Consider this 2025 data from PFF:

1. 91st in percentage of pass rush snaps per passing snap played (89.7%)
2. 10th in pressures on all snaps (75)
3. Tied for 8th in pressures against true pass sets (50)
4. Tied for 7th in sacks on all snaps (14)
5. Tied for 5th in sacks against true pass sets (10)
6. Tied for 7th in PRP (defined as “A formula that combines sacks, hits and hurries relative to how many times they rush the passer”) on all snaps (10.7)
7. 5th in PRP against true pass sets (16.1)
8. Tied for 50th in win rate on all snaps (12.3%), as you noted
9. 44th in win rate against true pass sets (17.7%)
10. 27th in PFF pass rush grade for all snaps (73.7)
11. 14th in PFF pass rush grade against true pass sets (83.6)
12. He did all this while playing 160 special teams snaps. I doubt any of his peers (edge players above and/or close to his likely salary range) are doing that. And this should stop going forward… hopefully, this season.

Given all of this, does the win rate really matter? The true pass set data is really strong. Does that make you rethink the answer to your question?

IMO they should pay him up to $34M/year if that is what it takes.

Buck Melanoma
Buck Melanoma(@buck-melanoma)
Member
Reply to  Tau837
1 month ago

Good post Tau.

You touched on this part. I don’t think this front office should underestimate the culture reinforcement extending Tuli brings. If draft, develop, and retain is truly the intent, here’s a very good way to prove it. Tuli is worth the investment on more than one level, IMO, especially with Mack’s age.

Tau837
Tau837(@tau837)
Member
Reply to  TDU_Alister
1 month ago

Of the players below Nick Bosa on the list, I would take Bonitto > Tuli; but I agree, factoring in age/character/depth of his game, Tuli would be higher for me than guys like Hendrickson and all of the others. It’s a good way of thinking about it.

Not sure I get why you would favor Bonitto. First 3 seasons for each, per PFF:

Defensive snaps: Tuli 2417, Bonitto 1642Pass rush snaps: Tuli 1306, Bonitto 892Pressures: Tuli 169, Bonitto 127Sacks: Tuli 31, Bonitto 26Tackles: Tuli 84 + 29 assists, Bonitto 52 + 18 assistsMissed tackles: Tuli 40, Bonitto 27Stops: Tuli 88, Bonitto 55Forced fumbles: Tuli 5, Bonitto 3Batted passes: Tuli 4, Bonitto 0Special teams snaps: Tuli 727, Bonitto 74Obviously, Tuli played a lot more defensive snaps, almost 50% more, and that explains why his cumulative production numbers are all higher than Bonitto’s. But… Tuli earned ~50% more snaps than Bonitto in their respective first three years.

And each of Tuli’s first 3 years came at an age that was about 2 years younger than Bonitto in his first 3 years, meaning Bonitto should theoretically have had an advantage. Bonitto is about 3 years older and is in his prime. Tuli has not yet reached his prime.

I wouldn’t trade Tuli for Bonitto.

Do you know if there’s data available on which defenses got to face the most third and longs last season? Wonder if this helped his production line too.

One could go through the teams and manually compile PFF’s snaps vs. true pass sets for each team or go through PFR splits to manually compile “3rd and long” or whatever combo one wants, but I”m not aware of anywhere the data you are asking for is aggregated. It would be interesting to see.

That said, IMO it is questionable if facing more true pass sets would be a positive or negative for a player’s production line. Positive is the player can pass rush without regard to a possible run, other than a possible QB scramble. Negative is the offense knows it is 3rd and long and could devote more resources to pass blocking. It may be that the net result is that it favors pass rushers, I’m not sure.

For me, $34m APY is more money than Tuli’s talent (and likely future value) warrants and I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a modest statisical regression from him this year. But I don’t think it would be a terrible deal that holds the team back or anything. I’m hopeful it will land closer to $30m which, to me, is still a slight overpay.

Don’t get me wrong, I don’t want them to pay him $34M APY. I would much prefer $30M. But, like you, I think the most important thing is to get it done ASAP.

Last edited 1 month ago by Tau837
Tau837
Tau837(@tau837)
Member
Reply to  Tau837
1 month ago

Obviously bitten by the formatting monster here. Should have known and written everthing with line breaks.  Kyle DeDiminicantanio , would be nice if we could stop the formatting of lists into paragraphs.

Kyle DeDiminicantanio
Admin
Reply to  Tau837
1 month ago

I’m sorry I’ve been MIA for so long, but I won’t be able to work on the site for some time.

My toddler has been going through a really tough sleep regression where she’s afraid to fall asleep by herself, and panics when she wakes up and we’re not in her room with her, so I’ve been sleeping a few hours a night on her floor until she falls asleep/goes back down. The night and morning hours where I could work on stuff are gone right now, and any time I can squeeze out I’ve needed to focus on work which has been really slow moving as well.

I was already trying to take a step back from working on the site to focus on growing my real estate business before my daughters sleep issues, and now with the sleep stuff going on my time is completely shot.

I’ll be back here eventually but right now the homefront needs my undivided attention.

Miss you guys though!

Buck Melanoma
Buck Melanoma(@buck-melanoma)
Member
Reply to  TDU_Alister
1 month ago

Sure, sacks and QB pressures are important, but what about run stops and containment? I think you’re downplaying the importance and scarcity of guys who can do it all at Tuli’s proven level, Al ….AND, at the risk of repeating myself, at his age. He’s been durable, he’s shown an incredible work ethic, and he’s the poster boy for retaining drafted talent, a stated priority for Hortiz.

I certainly don’t expect or advocate for this contract to reset the market. That’s not logical or realistic. But I do think it would be colosally stupid to blow this, particularly with Mack’s age and eventual retirement. There’s plenty of tangible and intangible reasons to get a new contract done at a fair market rate along the lines of what I proposed and you said later, Al. 4 yrs, $120M, 90M guaranteed. Add incentives as needed if that helps.

Pro Bowler’s Dominating Practice Day Re-Sparks Contract Chatter for Chargers – HEAVY https://share.google/qRaAs12rInNA6S2id

Last edited 1 month ago by Buck Melanoma
Buck Melanoma
Buck Melanoma(@buck-melanoma)
Member
Reply to  TDU_Alister
1 month ago

As you noted, I would abandon my colossally stupid position if the demands were outlandish. Based upon the professionalism Tuli has shown to date, I don’t believe that that will be the case. My concern is that we let him walk next year for even a third round comp pick. IMO, that would earn the colossally stupid tag, not only for losing a quality young player but also by undercutting the idea of rewarding/retaining those players. Players around the league pay attention, as do potential draft picks.

I still believe a deal will get done. My anxiety does rise a bit each time I see another contract successfully negotiated and it isn’t Tuli. But ending the “hold-in” is, I hope, a positive sign.

Duck07
Duck07(@duck07)
Member
1 month ago

Jack I do the McDaniels/McDonald thing way too much since I also follow the Hawks. So far in Camp, Jadarian Price sounds like he’s going to have a chance for ROTY with how seamless his transition has been. The murky status on Emmanwori could be a big deal though that isn’t being talked about. Really cool they’re on Hard Knocks if you follow that. I don’t think the loss of Kubiak will be that big and we’ll see if he’s ready to coach in the AFCW where he might be in over his head.

Agree with Alister about 5 WRs on this team on gameday and when you start parsing out what the Active 46 will look like I’ve got this right now.

Offensive 22
QB: Herbert, Lance
RB: Hampton, Mitchell, Vidal, Ingold
WR: QJ, Ladd, Tre, BT, DD
TE: OG, Kolar, Njoku (Ingold)
OL: Slater, Awosika, Biadasz, Strange, Alt / Slaughter, Burke, Pipkins/Penning

Defensive 21
DL: Tart, Caldwell, Tomlinson, Eboigbe, Barrett
Edge: Mack, Tuli, Mesidor, Tucker
LB: Henley, Perryman, Dye, Wax
CB: Still, Hart, Jackson, Leonard
S: Derwin, Molden, Jefferson, Genesis

Special Teams 3
Dicker, Scott, Harris

Duck07
Duck07(@duck07)
Member
Reply to  TDU_Alister
1 month ago

One cool nugget for the Seahawks is that while everyone knows about Grey Zabel at LG, the Center Jalen Sundell is a year older and they were teammates at North Dakota State the D2 powerhouse.

In attacking Seattle’s OL I think the C/RG A gap would be your best bet but I also don’t think Charles Cross is an Elite LT but merely a good one.

I’d say that 7 sacks stat is a bit misleading for them last year as evidenced by them keeping Derrick Hall over Boye Mafe where Mafe was the sack leader over Hall but Hall had a huge pressure rate that just didn’t seem to turn into sacks until the Super bowl.

On the roster I do think that 5th Safety spot is going to be the most difficult to project and Mickens and Smith may split some time on who is Active on Gameday and who is not. KLS may also be someone who makes the 53 but isn’t Active.

With Colson, I’ve already stated I’d like to see the team sign Bobby Wagner even if he’d likely push Perryman into a backup role but I can’t give Colson the benefit of the doubt until I see him do something on the field that looks better than what we’re getting from Marlowe Wax.

Tau837
Tau837(@tau837)
Member
Reply to  Duck07
1 month ago

I seriously doubt Barrett would be active over Phillips (special teams).

If the team calls up 2 PS players, they get 48 active players. In addition to thinking Phillips is in over Barrett, I would think 2 DBs would be prioritized, probably Reed and/or Mickens.

Buck Melanoma
Buck Melanoma(@buck-melanoma)
Member
1 month ago

Watching now and had to ask while it’s fresh in my mind….Al, did you see my response to Duck07 a week or so ago re: Tuli’s contract? I said $120M/4yrs, $90M guaranteed….exactly your response on the podcast. 🙂

KevDiego
KevDiego(@kevdiego)
Member
Reply to  Buck Melanoma
1 month ago

Plagiarism!

Buck Melanoma
Buck Melanoma(@buck-melanoma)
Member
Reply to  KevDiego
1 month ago

😆 😆 😆

Buck Melanoma
Buck Melanoma(@buck-melanoma)
Member
Reply to  TDU_Alister
1 month ago

Let’s go ESP.  😅 

Duck07
Duck07(@duck07)
Member
1 month ago

I’ll give it a listen but if it doesn’t reference Kyle De’s article on here about the Guard position not being broken but being on brand then you guys are forgetting that great piece he wrote in March! I think cautious optimism is where we should be with the Guards right now and giving McDaniels and the new OL coach the benefit of the doubt.

Buck Melanoma
Buck Melanoma(@buck-melanoma)
Member
Reply to  TDU_Alister
1 month ago

And you did reference the idea of guards not being prioritized….but not Kyle’s article.