Good afternoon StormCloud!
Ryan and I got together again last week to go over tape of his favorite IOL targets. Take a look at the video below (you may have to watch on YouTube), and let us know what you think!
Additionally, here is a copy of the slideshow we prepared if you want to read-up on Ryan’s notes that way!

The article has our target as Kelly, which I’m good with. It has the Falcons targeting Mack, which I hate.
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6177478/2025/03/06/nfl-free-agency-2025-predictions-rumors-teams/?source=weeklyemail&campaign=602288&userId=12566676
This is probably a better place than the combine thread for this post.
With Smith and Higgins out of consideration, here is my ideal scenario:
Cut/trade Bosa, Pipkins, Edwards
Extend Slater
Re-sign Mack, Ford, Tart, Dobbins, Bozeman, Dye, Heinicke, Scott, Fisk, Smartt, Sarell, Jefferson, Niemann, Stick
Final 53 man roster spots are not guaranteedd for Fisk, Smartt, Sarell, Jefferson, or Niemann; they have to battle for those spots
Jefferson probably would not make the initial 53 man roster to avoid guaranteeing his salary for the season, but would be re-signed after being waived
Stick is planned for the practice squad, not the final 53
Sign C Kelly, RG Fries, OL Mekari, WR Adams (assuming he is cut), and a veteran starting outside CB
CB could be Fulton, but there are others I prefer
That puts them going into the draft in need of (in rough priority order):
Edge – 1st round pick
TE – a 1a/1b to pair with Dissly; rounds 2-4
IDL – ideally a strong pass rusher; rounds 2-4
RB – a 1a/1b to pair with Dobbins; rounds 2-4
Depth at LB, DB, WR, maybe OL
It is very achievable to fill all of those needs in this draft and very achievable to do all of this with cap room to spare.
That could lead to this roster breakdown:
Offense (26):
QB (2) – Herbert, Heinicke (and Stick on practice squad)
RB (4) – Dobbins, TBD rookie, Vidal, Haskins
FB (1) – Matlock (ugh)
WR (6) – Adams, McConkey, Johnston, Rice, TBD rookie, Davis
TE (4) – Dissly, TBD rookie, Fisk, Smartt
OL (9) – LT Slater, LG Mekari/Johnson, C Kelly, RG Fries, RT Alt, G Mekari/Johnson, C Bozeman, OL Salyer, OT Sarell/TBD rookie
Bozeman is quality IOL backup and provides insurance against Kelly injury
Mekari and Zion battle for LG starting spot, and the loser becomes top backup G
OL benefits from chemistry Kelly and Fries already have together
Defense (24):
Edge (4) – Mack, TBD rookie (1st rounder so should be quality starter), Tuli, Dupree
IDL (5) – Ford, Tart, TBD rookie, Ogbonnia, Eboigbe
LB (5) – Henley, Colson, Dye, Niemann/TBD rookie, TBD rookie
CB (6) – TBD veteran free agent, Still, Hart, Leonard, Taylor, TBD rookie
S (4) – James, Gilman, Molden, Jefferson
Special Teams (3):
PK (1) – Dicker
P (1) – Scott
LS (1) – Harris
On offense, this improves OL, passing game, and running game. On defense, this could improve the pass rush while maintaining strong run defense and coverage.
That is a contending roster if Hortiz drafts well and they stay reasonably healthy.
Good analysis. A few principles I think the Chargers need to follow to have a successful off-season:
A few other thoughts:
You’re probably right and I completely agree that the Chargers cannot allocate $36.5M of cap space to Joey.
I thought Bosa looked really good early in the season (before getting hurt) and was steadily getting better at the end of the season. Not elite, but improving (and mostly available).
Joey just turned 30. Lots of edge players are effective into their mid-30s. If Herbert can get Bosa’s body right and the Chargers can renegotiate his contract, then there’s a world where Joey could be part of the solution in 2025.
Last year, he took a $7M pay cut Doing that this year would leave his cap hit at ~$29.5M. I realize that ~$11.1M is locked in, but IMO the team cannot afford to pay him another $18M+ above that. I wouldn’t pay him anything close to that.
I haven’t studied the OverTheCap positional value methodology closely, and I assume it is likely imperfect, like most advanced valuation metrics (e.g., PFF grades, PFR Approximate Value). Still, consider:
It valued Bosa’s 2024 positional value at $3.208M, which ranked #20 on the Chargers and #67 among Edge players.
It valued Bosa’s Value Over APY (positional value minus APY) at -$16.972M, which ranked last (#67) on the Chargers team and #200 out of 201 Edge players.
In a recent interview with Hortiz and Harbaugh….maybe with Pat McAfee at the Combine?….Harbaugh said the best ability is availability. Joey delivered much better on that front in 2024 but he’s now 30 with an extensive history of injury/unavailability. I, like you, just don’t see him figuring into a successful roster build.
In other FA IOL news….brutal? I say good!!
https://www.kget.com/sports/sports-illustrated/arena-nfl/si-los-angeles-chargers-nfl/e6c37d7c/chargers-receive-brutal-news-on-top-free-agent-target/
Too much moola for not enough bull, IMO.
And honestly – I wouldn’t personally be mad at a Will Hernandez signing either
Yeah, I wasn’t on the Trey Smith wagon anyway. I laughed at the “brutal" reaction of the author that wrote that piece. My preference is a cheaper vet…Fries works…and a draftee.
I don’t know if it’s me morphing into a cranky old man, but reading a headline with the word “Brutal" makes me respect the article (and author) less. It sounds like a headline my 10 year old would write.
A team retaining one of their best O-lineman is not “brutal" news. Mack signing with the Chiefs… Now that might qualify as brutal. Smith staying with the Chiefs was the most likely outcome and should surprise nobody.
I disagree. I think he’d be overpriced.
Completely agree. I don’t like the use of “sensational" language to describe mundane and expected news. It numbs us (or at least me) to news that actually might be brutal.
Herbert retiring would be brutal news. A dude on another team staying with that team is not brutal news.
Kelly probably goes to the highest bidder.