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Making Decisions that are Herbert-Friendly

TDU_Jack · 2024-05-27T01:10:11Z

Now that the draft is well and truly in the books, we are at a dead point in the season. Yes, there are some storylines worth following in terms of OTAs and press conferences (which the TDU crew are eating up), but I was getting a bit sick of seeing rankings like ‘Who is the biggest baby daddy in the NFL?’ given Tyreek Hill’s exploits in the last couple of years, so I decided to delve into some PFF data on Justin Herbert, find some interesting comparisons, and see if I can make some justifications for what we’ve seen from a drafting and front office perspective, and also some predictions on what we might expect from the big signal caller in the upcoming season. I am using Herbert’s PFF QB metrics in this article to provide insight and predictions. I am also using some PFF 2012 San Francisco data to help shape ideas and perspectives. I would love for people in the comments to add other perspectives or ideas based on my analysis (and yes, like most articles these days, I have put a ‘key takeaways’ section at the end so you do not have to read through it all). Play Action Herbert? I think the biggest question I have about Herbert fitting into a Roman scheme was ensuring that Herbert’s natural ability as a passer is not downplayed, or not utilized. One of Roman’s calling cards at San Francisco was the effective play-action game, so that’s where I started my research – is play-action actually a strength of Herbert’s? The results were interesting. Herbert has shown considerable growth in his ability to be more comfortable in the play-action game, even with changes of the coaches and coordinators around him. 2023: Completion Rate: 70.2%, YPA: 6.6, Passer Rating: 110.8 2022: Completion Rate: 63.5%, YPA: 7.0, Passer Rating: 87.4 2021: Completion Rate: 65.9%, YPA: 7.5, Passer Rating: 97.7 As a bigger QB, Herbert has always shown he has the athleticism to incorporate play-action into his game. Herbert's performance with play action in 2023 shows a notable improvement in completion rate and passer rating compared to previous years. Despite a slightly lower YPA, the higher completion rate and passer rating suggest better efficiency and decision-making under play action. But what does this mean? Many of us are prognosticating and hypothesizing if a Roman-led offense can utilize Herbert’s ability as a passer given how run-centric Roman’s previous offenses have been. So, I was able to grab some data from 2012 Colin Kaepernick/San Francisco’s Super Bowl run to compare with Herbert’s 2023 data. The comparison is fascinating, and perhaps gives some credence to what a Herbert/Roman pairing might look like: Completion Percentage: Herbert has a significantly higher completion percentage on play-action passes (70.2%) compared to Kaepernick (60.2%). Yards per Attempt: Kaepernick averages more yards per attempt (8.7) than Herbert (6.6), indicating deeper throws in play-action scenarios. Touchdowns to Interceptions Ratio: Herbert's TD to INT ratio (9:1) is better than Kaepernick's (4:3), showing better decision-making or execution. Turnover-worthy Plays: Kaepernick has a higher percentage of turnover-worthy plays (6.8%) compared to Herbert (1.0%). Average Depth of Target: Kaepernick has a higher ADOT (13.7) compared to Herbert (6.1), again indicating deeper throws. Adjusted Completion Percentage: Herbert has a slightly higher adjusted completion percentage (77.8%) compared to Kaepernick (73.4%). Dropped Passes: Herbert's receivers dropped fewer passes (4) compared to Kaepernick's (5), but Herbert's drop percentage (4.8%) is lower than Kaepernick's (8.6%). Time to Throw: Kaepernick takes more time to throw (3.61 seconds) compared to Herbert (2.93 seconds). NFL Rating: Herbert has a higher NFL rating (110.8) compared to Kaepernick (89.3). In comparing their play-action passing, Justin Herbert in 2023 demonstrates higher efficiency with a 70.2% completion rate and a stellar 9:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio, significantly outperforming Colin Kaepernick's 60.2% completion rate and 4:3 ratio from 2012. Kaepernick, however, capitalized on deeper throws, averaging 8.7 yards per attempt compared to Herbert's 6.6, reflecting a more aggressive downfield approach. Interestingly, while Herbert's quicker release (2.93 seconds vs. Kaepernick's 3.61) contributes to his higher efficiency, Kaepernick's higher-risk strategy yielded substantial yardage despite a greater propensity for turnovers. For Justin Herbert in 2024, his efficient play-action passing from 2023 suggests a strong foundation for continued success if he maintains or further improves his performance metrics. The high completion rate and favourable touchdown-to-interception ratio indicate that he can consistently make smart, accurate throws, which bodes well for sustaining offensive drives and scoring opportunities. If Herbert can combine his efficiency with a slightly more aggressive downfield approach, similar to Kaepernick's higher yards per attempt, it could enhance his overall ...

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TDU_Jack

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May 30, 2024 7:19 pm

(@wrefordreed89)

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Yeah that data sets that I have used possibly are not the tightest. It was hard to find PFF data on EPA and DVOA, or whatever data they use for those metrics in their analyses. Fascinating process. But what it does show me, is that numbers mean one thing, but football is football. I think I need to go back to my more impassioned takes based on raw emotion and knee-jerk reactions 🤣

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