A Week 1 game against a divisional rival, who is fresh off a Super Bowl appearance and it’s being held in Sao Paulo, Brazil; this game is set up for the type of weirdness that is associated with upsets and that’s what I have predicted as the outcome of this game.
“I believe the Chargers will kick off their season with a low-scoring victory against the Chiefs.” “The stage is set for a tight, defensive battle where the Chargers narrowly come out on top after 7 straight loses to Andy Reid’s dynasty.”
From my Season Predictions article from earlier this week
I think that even without Rashawn Slater the offense can improve on the 17 points they reached the last time these two teams faced off. The question is just how the Chargers will manage to limit the Chiefs to even less points than last year’s matchups. In his first season as an NFL coordinator Jesse Minter held an Andy Reid offense under 20 points so it’s not as if he needs to drastically improve on those game long efforts however to beat a team with Mahomes on the field you need to force him off the field on critical drives. That’s something the Chargers have failed to do since 2021.
So how will they manage it? First let’s get some context for how the Chiefs’ offense has changed since the end of last season.
Game context
The Chiefs have curiously doubled down on their shift to a speedy receiver corps which surprised me after their limitations were clear to see in the Super Bowl. Well-drilled Quarters based systems will be able to match deep field crossing patterns as Vic Fangio proved. I have too much respect for Andy Reid to think this is a naïve, short sighted move and I am therefore going to stop short of saying so, however on paper it doesn’t stack up well against the Jesse Minter’s scheme which only gave up 6 scores to them across the 2 games from last season and has only improved since.
I have no doubt that this will be a low scoring affair as without both Rashee Rice and rookie Jalen Royals a good share of the burden will be placed on a version of Travis Kelce which is both distracted and fading into the darkness. This simplifies the game plan to focus on limiting explosive connections to Marquise Brown, Xavier Worthy and Tyquan Thornton.
| Player | 40 yard dash time | In Game Speed | Height | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier Worthy | 4.21 seconds | 22.70 mph | 5′ 11″ | 165 lbs |
| Marquise Brown | 4.27 seconds | 20.25 mph | 5′ 9″ | 180 lbs |
| Tyquan Thornton | 4.28 seconds | 21.54 mph | 6′ 2″ | 185 lbs |
That’s a very one dimensional group with a lot of overlapping skill sets. I think the way Andy Reid has built their wide receiver room suits the way Minter’s system operates even when they’re fully healthy, so when you can keep things simple and focus on the run to force the issue, it makes it a very strong game plan.
Stopping The Run
The Chief’s reduced passing options are especially relevant when their run game was so limited with Kareem Hunt finishing last season with an explosive run rate of just 5.5% which was around the same mark as the ghost of Gus Edwards managed. The return of a healthy Isaiah Pachecho certainly helps as he had double the 10+ yard runs of Hunt when he was last at full fitness back in 2023, however I don’t think he lifts the ceiling to a point their game plan can take the ball out of Patrick Mahomes’ hands. I’ve read that Chiefs’ beat writers were surprised to see Elijah Mitchell even make the 53-man roster after a poor preseason so I’d be surprised if their backups factored into this game.
The Chargers held the Chiefs to 197 yards on 51 attempts across their two games in the 2024 season. The average run went for 3.9 yards and had an EPA of -0.101. This total number was -5.16 EPA with a success rate of 47.1%. These numbers show that the Chargers were winning against the ground game in all phases.
All data is from FTN (formerly Football Outsiders)
However Minter, Hortiz and the rest of the staff involved in defensive acquisitions, weren’t happy with what they saw last season particularly against heavier personnel where the Bolts got pushed around a bit against teams built for size. Over the off-season they have added mass along the front in order to withstand double teams against light boxes but more so to stand up to overloads on the kind of gap runs on 3rd and short that Kansas City utilizes to keep drives alive. When they needed 3 yards they got exactly 3 yards and nothing more but it was the consistency by which they achieved their goal that means you have to account for it.
The starting rotation of interior defensive lineman the Chargers can boast is now a lot more equipped to handle the types of body shots in the trenches that have demoralized the Bolts of the past. Expect to see more odd fronts as part of Minter’s methodology for getting off the field in short yardage situations.
The game begins on third down
I therefore have faith that Jesse Minter will be able to win on early downs but the game will be decided on third down where Mahomes’ incredible ability to consistently find the weak spot is so hard to fully account for. Mahomes finishes 1st in success rate on 3rd/4th downs with 55.8% with a staggering adjusted completion rate of 81.5% which again was the best in the league.
The Chiefs’ entire offensive philosophy over the past two seasons has been to stay on schedule, gain small but consistent gains and let Mahomes win the game with his elite mental processing and ability to extend plays. Pat may have come into the league as the best creator the game has ever seen but he’s now firmly into his second act as a master of efficiency, it may be boring to watch but it works.
To win this game Minter will therefore need to find ways to affect how Mahomes sees the game on these critical downs or by making sure by the time that number 3 rolls over on the stick, there’s no feasible way for the Chiefs to keep the drive alive. I think based on who Minter has shown himself to be that he’ll opt for a third down focused game plan rather than being aggressive enough to push the ball back on early downs.
Sending an extra body is not enough to fool Mahomes from spotting it coming and adjusting the protection but if the team pairs it with stunts and gets creative in the design, they can get home and the numbers are there to prove it despite the lore about his mystical abilities agains the blitz.
A loose thread in Kermit’s coat
On 3rd & 4th downs Mahomes was QB3 in all the contextually considered metrics like DVOA, EPA/Dropback and DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement) however when he was blitzed that dropped to QB8. That isn’t just when he was pressured but whenever an extra pass rusher was sent in pursuit. This data is also skewed in the wrong direction as teams were afraid to blitz Mahomes on third down, he faced the 4th fewest blitzes per game therefore at a higher volume this could look even worse.
I believe this drop in statistical output is actually Mahomes’ fault too, his throw accuracy percentage when blitzed is 69.6% which ranks 13th amongst qualified starters and when you factor in elements beyond his control such as drops or throwaways he still ranks 13th. The drop off in adjusted accuracy from when he is faced with a 4-man pass rush (81.5%/1st) to when it faced with 5 or more (73.8%/13th) is where there is an opportunity for Minter to expose a slight chink in the armor.
“All right now, I don’t want them to gain another yard! You blitz… all… night! If they cross the line of scrimmage, I’m gonna take every last one of you out!”
Coach Bill Yoast in Remember The Titans
The Chargers are a successful blitzing team because of both the design of their pressure paths and the fact that it always comes as a surprise. In 2024 the Bolts were a bottom-10 team in blitz frequency but they ranked 3rd-most successful in generating pressure when blitzing. So to pair this slight flaw in Mahomes’ almost flawless profile and a strength of the Chargers can result in a positive result.
So how do the Bolts do it? How do they affect the quarterback who can spot any blitz coming and throw directly at the weak spot behind it? Pat faces Spags every day in practice so he knows how to spot coverage rotations but the one thing he can’t account for is stunts as there is no way to read those pre-snap.
Gameplanning pressure paths
The Chargers didn’t show anything complicated in terms of pressure paths in the preseason but the Palms based double linebacker pressure Minter showed a couple of times was a slight departure from what his attacking methods were last season. Jesse Minter demonstrated that he’s willing to get creative with his pressure paths in last season’s matchup and he even stole a concept from the Chiefs’ DC, Steve ‘Spags’ Spagnoulo, and mirrored it back on him which I am sure brought a wry smile to his face.
As Cody Alexander points out, this is Tango which is a 5-man pressure concept with Palms coverage behind it. Spags learnt this by studying Nick Saban/Kirby Smart’s ‘Big 12’ pressure designs but he added Palms behind it. This is a fantastic way to negate the mismatches of man whilst ensuring no one is covering grass which is key when sending three off ball players.
Minter threw in some new look pressure packages that more aligns with what Brian Flores is using in Minnesota. He sent three off ball players and dropped one OLB out to create a Palms pressure with a 2 under 4 spread behind it. This is different to how he normally runs his zone pressure looks and it represents a potential shift to his next phase of development after his 3-3 Fire Zone looks started to become a bit predictable on third down.
From my analysis of the preseason loss to the Los Angeles Rams
This is something Brian Flores has been doing over the last 1.5 seasons as an adjustment to his insane Cover 0 blitzkrieg methods that were unsustainable. The key with Tango or other Palms pressure packages is that you are essentially giving up the low middle zone to players who start attached to the box which sounds undesirable but with the Chiefs’ skill groups being one dimensional this can work. The Atlanta Falcons did this to the Bolts last season too, particularly on third down. It’s a developing league trend that provides answers to the type of low crossers that Offensive Coordinators love underneath clearout routes to expose the weak areas of Quarters-based teams.
This can work even better considering Kingsley Suamataia has moved to left guard alongside the rookie Josh Simmons. That’s a pairing to target given their inexperience as individuals and working together. It’s also not isolated to those two, the right hand side of the line may have returned in its entirety but Jaylon Moore is being paid too much to be a backup right tackle. It’s a matter of when not if he’ll replace Jawaan Taylor and that kind of pressure creates mistakes, the type of which he is prone to. The loss of Joe Thuney could also mean that Creed Humphrey becomes unsettled without two All-Pro caliber guards flanking him but that’s a slight stretch given his stellar performance so far in his career.
Who does Minter send to create the required pressure
I’d advocate for Derwin being the primary off-ball blitzer tonight. James missed the home game against the Chiefs last season but in the return leg he made sure his presence was felt earning a sack despite only rushing 4 times which was below his season average. Derwin destroyed the tight end/running back bracket block on that sack which highlights the fact he really needs a lineman assignment which affects protection schemes. This could be a weak-link to expose.
The Chiefs opted to bring in Robert Tonyan, a receiver type, over keeping Peyton Hendersholt or any of their other pass blocking tight ends which means they’re exposed off the edge. Should the Chargers manage to work their stunts to occupy the left side duo and engage Creed Humphrey, it could be a key area to attack.
A game plan which featured some zone replacement blitz calls on third down would also force Travis Kelce to stay tight to the line, limiting his route tree and it could even mean that the Chiefs have to keep another player in protection to allow the future Mr Swift to release which would be a major win given the damage he can do on critical downs.
Concepts like the one above can get Khalil Mack to attack the weak point of the Chiefs’ pass protection, whilst maximizing the talents of Derwin James, Teair Tart and Tuli Tuipulotu. I think Minter will have realized by now that sending four on base concepts isn’t going to be enough to take the challenge to Mahomes instead of putting a shell over the deep zones and hoping one of Mack or Tuli get home on efforts alone. It’s time to crank the dial up to 11 and dictate the game on our terms.
This pass rush group will be absolutely key in giving the Chargers’ offense enough drives to slowly work their way into the game; time is the absolute best weapon you can possibly have against the Chiefs. Therefore if Minter can leverage these strategies to take it away from Patrick Mahomes and give it back to Justin Hebert then this can turn Week 1 of the 2025 season from another close defeat into a statement win.
Danny it Ryan, these are such great articles! I can’t thank you enough for taking your time to write us such insightful, understandable and we’ll articles pieces. Learning more about football thanks to you. Next time we see each other drinks will definitely be on me!
Thank you my bro! Are you over for the London games this season? I haven’t got tickets but I’m happy to meet you for a beer or three.
This year we are going bigger. A good friend of mine lives in new Zealand and is a Giants fan. We were half jokingly texting about seeing that game together and suddenly everything lined up and we decided to actually do it.
So no London this year. Hopefully next year I’ll be back and we can meet up again!