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At the risk of jinxing the team (yes, I am somewhat superstitious), I'm starting a playoffs thread. Beating either of these next two 3-12 teams gets us into the party. I feel pretty confident of at least one more win.
Id be shocked if we dont but clearly this week is the week to lock it up catching NE off a bit of a heartbreaker. Also would earn us a well deserved "bye" week. One we could absolutely use since we had such an early one this year.
@pistol495 I wouldn't assume winning this week equates to next week being a game to rest players. Seed matters. If the Chargers end up as the 7 seed, they almost certainly open at Buffalo, the least desirable matchup IMO. If they end up as the 6 seed, they will presumably open at Baltimore... not great but more desirable than at Buffalo. And if they get to 11 wins, it is possible they could get the 5 seed and play at Houston, easily the most winnable matchup. They will almost certainly need to win in weeks 17 and 18 to ensure they are not the 7 seed.
@tau837 I know this is probably a minority take, but I think the Chargers might match up better with the Bills than with the Steelers and Ravens (who are both built in a similar tough image to the Chargers, with their best players in the trenches on both sides of the ball). The Bills' Defense have allowed two teams to score 40 points against them in their past 3 games. Sean McDermott has a history of questionable game management in playoff games. And even though Josh Allen is elite, he does give you some turnover opportunities, so I would like taking the bet that his higher variance style of playing the position works into Minter's hands.
Obviously their record is superior to the Ravens/Steelers, and Buffalo is a tough place to play football. I don't want to short-sell that they'll be a difficult opponent. But I don't fear them as much as I would usually fear a 12-3 team.
That was a long way of saying if it's a choice between resting certain players in Wk 18 and trying to secure the highest seed possible, I think the rest might be more attractive. If the Chargers are to get to the promised land, they would probably need to go through Buffalo anyway, whether in the Wild Card round (or a later round). That week off for Bosa/Mack and any other journeyman might be worth it.
@alisterlloyd Well, I suspect Buffalo will be the coldest and with the highest likelihood of snow, so possibly the worst weather for the Chargers.
As for the matchup with Buffalo, while they did allow 40+ twice recently, once was to Detroit and the other time was to the Rams in a rare game where the Rams were operating with their full set of skill players. Aside from those two games, Buffalo allowed an average of 18.8 ppg in its other 13 games. Meanwhile, Buffalo is #2 in ppg, behind only Detroit.
And, while you are right that Allen has traditionally given opponents some turnover opportunities, they have the fewest turnovers in the league, with 8 in 15 games... so obviously every other potential opponent has more.
I agree the Ravens would also be a very challenging opponent. I think the Steelers would be a better matchup, given that the Chargers would likely be healthier than they were in their first matchup.
Anyway, I doubt anyone would disagree that the Chargers would prefer to play at Houston over any other potential first round opponent. Failing that, I maintain my belief that they are better off facing Baltimore or, particularly, Pittsburgh. So I expect the Chargers will be motivated try to win out, and thus will not be heavily resting players.
@tau837 I think most of us agree that the Texans (or whoever wins that division) would be the best playoff opponent. Given how things shake out this week, Harbaugh may be tempted to play the Raider game like it's meaningful.
I agree with the points about Buffalo. I also do not like the thought of playing football in Buffalo in January. However, the Harbaugh Chargers are better-built to win in bad weather games.
I agree that Pittsburg is playing like crap. You and I have gone back/forth on how good Wilson is. My main concern with the Steelers is how physical they play, and how poorly the Chargers reacted to that physicality in their first matchup. The Chargers came into the game healthy. Lots of injuries after. Pittsburg took out both starting tackles and generally beat the living shit out of the Chargers. If Pittsburg is the opponent, the Chargers need to have a plan mitigate the Steelers aggressiveness.
Side note, watching in-season Hard Knocks. Tomlin comes across very well in that show. His football IQ and leadership is on full display.
@pistol495 The weather, which I thought could have impacted this game, looks to be a non-factor. 49 and cloudy.
Bad season for the Pats. The Chargers are the better team. THIS Charger team wins the games they should win and this is a "should win" game.
It would be great to win the Patriots game because Antonio Pierce wants to win (and ruin his draft stock) so the last thing we need is a team ready to kneecap their opponents because its the last game they'll play for 8 months.
I really can't imagine Harbaugh resting anyone, particularly vs the Raiders.
And yes, I think the most favorable match up is vs the Texans.
I'd rather play in Pittsburgh and certainly wouldn't want to go up to Buff City. We match up well with the Ravens too, so I think we've got a good chance to get to the Divisional Championship game where who knows who might be injured or how it'll play out.
As it looks now, Ravens should win the AFC-North with a 12-5 or 11-6 record with two remaining games against the Texans and the lowly Browns. The Steelers could easily lose to the Bengals next week after they beat the Broncos this weekend at home to stay alive for a playoff spot. With a loss to the Bengals, the Steelers fall to the 6th spot in the playoff ranking with a 10-7 record. All our Chargers need to do is to win out at NE and Vegas to be in the 5th spot with a 11-6 record to face the Texans in the first round of the playoffs.
I say the team wins Saturday then plays starters vs the Traitors for 2 or 3 series, then rests them. Let the chips fall where they may. If the team goes to BUF, we go and kick their asses. If the team goes to BAL, we beat Lamar again in the playoffs.
F the Bills and Ravens, and F the effin Diaz brothers! F ‘em all!! We bury those cockroaches!!!
Said in my Tony Montana voice.
@buck-melanoma A welcomed return. Needs to work on his tackling and approach to runners in space. Been a little hit or miss there
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