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which we're starting to, it seems, let's have a thread for it.
Here's an early mock from Dane Brugler to start some conversation. This is a very deep RB class so not a fan of going here with our first.
Posted this in the thread I started yesterday:
From 2025 NFL mock draft: Shedeur Sanders, Cam Ward go top 3 in polarizing class:
25. Los Angeles Chargers: Kaleb Johnson, RB, Iowa
Jeanty deserves every bit of praise he gets, but he isn’t the only running back in this class who will be considered in the first round. Johnson is a well-put-together athlete who runs with equal amounts power, patience and quickness. Add in that he doesn’t fumble and is reliable on passing downs, and you don’t have to squint to see why Jim Harbaugh might go this direction.
I don't know much about the draft class yet, and I don't anything about Johnson. But my reaction today is that I would be very disappointed with a RB in the first round.
Fortunately, I think Hortiz will be smarter than this. He was with the Ravens 1998-2023. In those 25 years, the Ravens drafted 20 RBs, but only 5 of them before the 4th round:
- 1st round (1): Jamal Lewis (2000)
- 2nd round (2): Ray Rice (2008), J.K. Dobbins (2020)
- 3rd round (2): Musa Smith (2003), Bernard Pierce (2012)
Only Dobbins in the last 12 Ravens drafts when Hortiz was with Baltimore.
I do think the Chargers need to upgrade the RB position, but I see no reason to believe it can't be done effectively with a later round draft pick and/or veteran free agent.
@tau837 yes, this is why I decided to start a draft thread. I've been wanting to anyway and you spurred me on. 🙂
RB may well be the deepest position in this draft. I'd be sorely disappointed and shocked if Hortiz went RB in round 1.
@bolt_dk I'm still not. I think we still have too much to address to put that kind of draft capital into a RB.
@buck-melanoma Understand the reasons to not go RB in round one, but if Jeanty does fall (he won't) I'd be stoked to have him. I know you've seen what this dude's been doing. He ain't Barry, but challenging his college records is wild. He's special. Add in the ability for Hortiz to actually find talent via free agency and throughout the draft makes me feel better about it if it happens. It won't.
@feeblepubliccableaccessshow I understand the excitement he generates. I just don't think we're a RB away from building a SB team.
@buck-melanoma Same boat here, Buck. All for building from the trenches out, but maaaan that dude would take some pressure off Herbs if they can get the interior oline figured out!
@feeblepubliccableaccessshow that's just it for me. I like to build the foundation before running the trim. Maybe it's my construction background.
I agree Herbert needs weapons but this RB class is deep. I believe that position can wait.
@buck-melanoma I believe that too. I'd only be ok with Jeanty if he somehow feel that far, he wouldn't be my ideal pick. I'd prefer other positions for now.
@bolt_dk he's not falling outta the 1st round and that's just too rich for where we are in building this roster, IMO.
@buck-melanoma, I get that. To me, he's too special to count out as a potential pick or be mad about. He's a blue-chip player.
For now, I hope we keep the "oline-centric team" mantra going and draft a center. I'd be ok with Tyler Warren too. I think he could be special in this offense.
@bolt_dk I think we could see the Michigan TE, Loveland. Pretty sure Harbaugh recruited him in college. They have to see what a pass catching TE could do for this offense and I think the MI connection would get the nod over Warren.
@buck-melanoma I'd be happy with Loveland too. Optimistically, he could become our version of Kelce. However, I view Warren as a versatile, do-it-all player akin to Brock Bowers, capable of making our offense less predictable, IMO.
@bolt_dk I don't disagree and like Warren too. In fact, I think he could well be off the board before our pick. I just think Harbaugh, if they go TE, will want "his" guy.
@buck-melanoma It will certainly be interesting to see what decisions they make - and to hear what they might have preferred instead.
@buck-melanoma I do not believe Warren or Loveland will be top 15 picks this year so it is completely reasonable to think one or both of them could be available around pick 20. We have enough draft capital to slide up a few spots to go get one if available on day 1.
Jeanty, in spite of how great he has been this year is a small back. They list him at 5’9. He’s probably going to measure under that at the combine AND he has a lot of miles on him already. From what I have seen so far this is a good RB draft. Plus we have to see what this regime does with our own FA. We have a ton of 1 year contracts and expiring deals. Could Dobbins be back and Edwards is gone? Maybe Mullins from Michigan fits what they want in a later round? Do they decide they need a back with hands to add that component to the offense? IMO, with all the 1 year deals and cut candidates, Edge, DL, TE, IOL, CB will be much bigger early round needs. Jeanty would be a piece to add in ‘26 or ‘27. Not this upcoming draft.
@evolz3737 agree on all points here. Not sure if the positions you listed as needs were in order of priority. If so, I'd likely elevate TE. Herbert and this offense really need more weapons and I think TE is the place to look in the draft.
I'd probably go TE, edge, IOL, DL, CB. It's really a shame we didn't grab a center in the draft last year. A much better class and not much if anything likely to be available there in free agency. If we draft a center, I like the kid from Kansas. Good size and I believe he can be coached up.
Not ready to chuck Zion but I am ready for the Pipkins experiment to be over. And Bosa is likely gone, though I wouldn't consider it a definite.
@buck-melanoma I agree about C. I always believe when a draft is very strong at a position, it should be drafted even if it’s not a glaring need. Just think what this team looks like with Kincaid instead of QJ and Limmer instead of Egboigbe. I haven’t done a ton of IOL prep yet, but I think the prospects there are looking more like round 2 picks. How this team handles both its own FA and outside signings will go a long way toward what our draft needs are. Perryman, Niemann and Dye are FA. If they are all gone suddenly KB becomes a hole. Same with DL, Edge, CB, RB. That’s the blessing and curse of so many 1 year deals. Extremely motivated production but is only a temp fix. And it’s foolish to think this is a sound roster building strategy going forward. Most of these panned out, but there will be a year you get more Charks than Fords.
@evolz3737 I don't think this is the process that Hortiz plans to continue, particularly coming from the Ravens organization. He walked into a cap minefield and had to make chicken salad outta chickenshit with limited mayonnaise. Hopefully....I believe....we'll see a different strategy moving forward. I feel like this culture wants to draft and development whenever possible, using free agency and short-term contracts to fill and strengthen.
Buck,
So funny you started this. I am going to post a draft player profile piece I wrote up yesterday. As you know, I am a sick individual for the draft so I have already started to get going on the prep for it.
@evolz3737 Great!!! I'm so ready to see what this staff is gonna do in the off-season without excessive cap limitations.
Bring it on, man!
@buck-melanoma first prospect profile is up. I will try to post 1-2 a week so we can start to get a look at some of these guys during bowl season and CFP time.
@evolz3737 excellent! Thanks Eric! Looking forward to your takes.
Just for curiosity....who are the guys you tend to trust with profiles? I have a few favorites but interested in your input. 🙂
@buck-melanoma Jeremiah and Brugler seem to be the best to me, but a very close second are Trevor Sikkema and Connor Rogers. They are into the prospects and college football all year, so they resonate with me. I’m coming around on Ryan Wilson at CBS. IMO he still likes to throw to many reaches and “surprise” picks for my liking for reactions rather than just calling it straight. If you have an Athletic subscription, Brugler puts out The Beast, which is a gigantic comprehensive breakdown of pretty much every draft eligible player. It’s a monstrosity of a piece to realistically read through entirely, but for draft nerds like me it’s fantastic, but I still don’t read every page.
@evolz3737 I always read the Beast...well, I read parts of it, like you. Jeremiah and Brugler I like, less familiar with Sikkema and Connors. CBS just always seems to throw out some real left field stuff, makes it harder for me to take them seriously.
The Huddle Report has some good info. Drew Boylhart is usually pretty accurate in his takes....not necessarily all technical though he hits that too. He adds in a little more, shall we say, reality to his takes? Not much there yet for 2025 but it'll pick up. Give it a look.
Thx for the recs.
Reality was the wrong word to use re: Boylhart. Intangibles is better. Time to edit had run out.
So for fun right now the Chargers are picking at 1-21, 2-53 and 3-85 and using the PFF sim and no trades netted Colston Loveland TE (A+), Tyler Booker OG (D+) and Parker Brailsford OC (C-)
In the Pro Football Network 7-round sim with no trades it netted Harold Fanin Jr TE, Donovan Jackson OG, Parker Brailsford OC, Ricky White WR, Cam Skattebo RB, Jordan Burch DE, Yahya Black DT, Riley Leonard QB, Josh Priebe OG, Kobe Savage .
If you want to play bully-ball long-term with Justin, just go get all those OL now, get your system fully installed and set the damn tone while giving him a giant threat from the Y who looks like he catches anything even thrown remotely near him or in the case of Fanin, a chess piece of an H who you can put in motion to create mismatches against coverage. If I'm hard-pressed to rank the 3 TEs, I'd go Loveland, Warren, Fanin Jr.
Logan Jones the Center from Iowa is returning to school so some of the better ones to look at in this draft are Parker Brailsford and Jake Majors from Texas and you probably ave to draft them at 53 or in a slight move down from 53. Maybe that's an ideal area in this draft with our 2nd rounder to see as pivot spot for a team wanting to come up. Josh Kreutz, son of Olin, at Illinois is another option as we get further down the board so to speak. I haven't seen any film of Jonah Monheim from USC this year but he's gotten decent reviews as a mid-rounder.
When it comes to drafting a Guard, there are a lot of OT's who can get pushed inside and we already know the team is comfortable doing that as they did it already with Pipkins so don't be shocked when guys who played OT this year in college are scouted by the team and that really opens up the amount of players they'd be comfortable drafting too.
At WR the team will run it back with Ladd, QJ and DD and while Rice is under contract, he's not a given for anything going into next year. Looking at a 1-2 of Ladd and QJ, you can approach it from the perspective of adding a player who compliments those 2 such as a Ricky White out of UNLV or else you may just say who is the best guy available, QJ reps be darned but now I think that means using your 1st rounder on a WR and I don't think someone like Egbuka is the guy this team needs in that spot vs one of the TEs. Tez Johnson is going to be this drafts Ladd McConkey and I wouldn't have a problem with them on the field at the same time at all for Justin. They may not be the biggest but they're quick route runners with great hands who know how to get open even when targeted by the defense.
RB is going to have some dudes and when I went through that Mock with PFN, I was stoked that my choice between Ricky White and Cam Skattebo paid off in that Skattebo was there for the next pick because I think he'd make for a great RB under Harbaugh as a complimentary guy. I'm of the mindset that Dobbins may get resigned right now so we will take someone who falls later in the draft and after helping build out the OL so they have better lanes.
DT has depth to the spot and some of the rankings on those boards are off relative to how I think it goes down. Kenneth Grant from UM has benefited so much from playing with Graham and Josiah Stewart outside which is only to say that some of those rankings are going to wildly change in the next few months. Alfred Collins from Texas is a good looking DT who isn't getting much love and Jamaree Caldwell could be a nice late round anchor piece as a 2-down run stuffer.
Edge has depth too and while I think Jordan Burch is more likely to play a Morgan Fox DE/DT type role, he has stood up at times if the team wanted to use him that way. I think the Ohio State guys are overrated as early picks go and some of this may depend on what the team decides with its own Ohio State Edge and whether they give Joey a 1-2 year extension or not. You can create a bunch of Cap Space from cutting him, but you've got to either replace it in FA or the Draft. If Josiah Stewart is at 21 and the team takes him, it might signal that Joey would be on his way out without some kind of team friendly restructure.
LB doesn't seem like a position they'll focus on early so I'd imagine we'd be talking about 5-7 rounders. Jeffrey Bassa out of Oregon is a Hybrid OLB/Safety who would likely play a lot of STs.
When it comes to the DB group it will be interesting to see the approach as it seems like CB would be the main focus. One Safety I like it South Carolina's Nick Emmanwori as he's just a tall and long guy on the back-end and you can't teach size. While I went with a OL centric 1-2-3 in the draft, it's also easy to see a Free Agent OL taking one of those draft picks spots at which point a DB may been an easy position to slot into the draft.
I'd absolutely consider a third for this guy.
@bolt_dk I like him but wouldn't be surprised if Harbaugh wants his guy Colston Loveland.
So far, my draft priorities are:
- Get another target besides Ladd;
- Improve IOL and TE Blocking;
- Improve IDL;
- Get Ja'sir Taylor off the field;
- Back up plan in case of injuries (from most likely to worst case).
Another target can be a TE, but with a lot of picks in this draft they can draft 2 and/or a WR. Drafting 2 would help adress blocking, but I worry if there's not much better than Tucker Fisk, maybe a fullback would be the way to go.
Idk if they should draft a C or a guard with C versatility. Depends on how much this team believes in Bozeman. Drafting both is not a bad idea either, Pipkins won't be on this team for long and by drafting you can get guys like Sam Mustipher out of the field.
When I think of what contributes the most to this defense, it's having Ford and Tart on the field at the same time. So if you had a third guy on their level on rotation, it would solidify this defense by a lot. Also, Morgan Fox long term status on this team is a mystery.
There's been so many injuries on DB that Ja'sir Taylor is getting too many snaps. But even Gilman was starting to get exposed. One big factor in this defense's success has been DJ in the box. Going to point 5, if DJ gets injuried, it's a worst case scenario. while an unlikely case, the risk is big, so I would invest high draft capital in getting a great Safety that can hold this team together if DJ goes down and can be used to create QB confusion if DJ is healthy - more tools for Minter.
The most likely injury is Bosa and Mack. So you need another edge. Idk about Bud Dupree long term status in this team, but he played more snaps than you would hope. You may need to invest high to get a good pass rusher, but even if you get a 3rd down specialist, it's not so bad. This team's good IDL created a lot of 3rd and 6+, perfect for a specialist, which is cheaper draft capital. Maybe one can fall to the 3rd round.
The other injury cases are JK dobbins and at LB. If gus leaves, they will need another back anyways. You can get a 3rd down catching and blocking specialist too, which is cheaper. When Perryman went down, this defense took a big hit. Hortiz hasn't had as much success at backup LB as with DBs, so maybe it would be a good idea to find it in the draft.
The problem with mock draft simulators is that the consensus boards are in flux, you can get wacky results from the computer picks. At the nflmockdraftdatabase I got Loveland, Hampton (RB), Stewart (EDGE), Ramsey (S) and Tai Felton (WR) in the first 5 rounds with no trades picking at 22. I've seen all those players higher rated than that, I'm not sure it's realistic. In the same draft I got TE Delp at pick 208 and Luke Kandra, OG, at 217.
Some names to watch in the East-West Shrine game, couple of center possibilities. I need to find time to watch a couple of those prospects as I remain concerned about the center position. It seems to me that they may be focused more on addressing RG than center. Both need an upgrade but center is the priority, IMO. Unfortunately that cupboard isn't nearly as stocked as last year.
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