[et_pb_section admin_label=”section”]
[et_pb_row admin_label=”row”]
[et_pb_column type=”4_4″][et_pb_text admin_label=”Text”]
In a recent discussion in another thread, a passing reference was made to whether or not Philip Rivers will make the PFHOF. SO I wanted to create this thread to discuss his case now and for years to come.
Rivers last played in 2020, so he will become eligible for the PFHOF in the class of 2026. Rivers was in the NFL for 17 seasons. He sat behind Brees for the first 2 seasons, then started for his last 15 seasons. He played for the Chargers in all but the last of those seasons.
Here is a lot of data, including all time rankings (regular season, unless noted otherwise):
- Honors/awards:
- 2013 Comeback Player of the Year
- 8 Pro Bowl selections
- 8 NFL Top 100 selections (out of 10 possible selections, since the list began in 2011)
- Starts:
- Regular season games started (240)
- Tied for #19 at time of retirement
- Tied for #19 today
- Regular season games started at QB (240)
- Tied for #5 at time of retirement
- Tied for #6 today
- Consecutive regular season games started (240)
- Tied for #4 at time of retirement
- Tied for #4 today
- Consecutive regular season and postseason games started (252)
- #5 at time of retirement
- #5 today
- Consecutive regular season games started at QB (240)
- #2 at time of retirement
- #2 today
- Consecutive regular season and postseason games started at QB (252)
- #2 at time of retirement
- #2 today
- Regular season games started (240)
- Wins, etc.:
- Regular season wins (134)
- #8 at time of retirement
- #9 today
- Postseason wins (5)
- Tied for #29 at time of retirement
- Tied for #29 today
- Comeback wins (29)
- Tied for #10 at time of retirement
- Tied for #11 today
- Game winning drives (35)
- Tied for #12 at time of retirement
- Tied for #13 today
- Regular season wins (134)
- Standard career metrics:
- Pass attempts (8,134)
- #6 at time of retirement
- #8 today
- Pass attempts per game (33.3)
- #20 at time of retirement
- Tied for #26 today
- Completions (5,277)
- #5 at time of retirement
- #7 today
- Completions per game (21.6)
- #20 at time of retirement
- Tied for #20 today
- Completion percentage (64.9%)
- #14 at time of retirement
- #20 today
- Total offense (61,209)
- #5 at time of retirement
- #6 today
- Passing yards (63,440)
- #5 at time of retirement
- #6 today
- Passing yards per game (260.0)
- #14 at time of retirement
- #13 today
- YPA (7.8)
- Tied for #9 at time of retirement
- Tied for #10 today
- Passing TDs (421)
- #5 at time of retirement
- #6 today
- Passing TD percentage (5.2%)
- Tied for #36 at time of retirement
- Tied for #36 today
- Interceptions (209)
- Tied for #25 at time of retirement
- Tied for #25 today
- Interception percentage (2.6%)
- Tied for #33 at time of retirement
- Tied for #46 today
- Passer rating (95.2)
- #11 at time of retirement
- #17 today
- Times sacked (464)
- #11 at time of retirement
- #14 today
- Sack yards lost (2,832)
- #25 at time of retirement
- #29 today
- Sack percentage (5.4%)
- Tied for #38 today
- Fumbles (111)
- Tied for #11 at time of retirement
- Tied for #12 today
- Fumbles recovered (36)
- Tied for #15 at time of retirement
- Tied for #17 today
- Pass attempts (8,134)
The sack and fumble numbers aren’t great at face value, but they aren’t bad when context is applied (i.e., considering the below average pass blocking he received throughout most of his career).
A lot of Rivers naysayers would criticize him for interceptions, but his career interception percentage is good.
He retired top 5 in the primary accumulated statistics (completions, passing yards, passing TDs), which is very compelling for his HOF resume, especially when paired with strong rate statistics, retiring top 15 in completion percentage, passing yards per game, YPA, and passer rating. He was not a compiler.
Rivers accomplished all of this while playing with generally inferior coaching, front office, and ownership support in comparison to his HOF caliber contemporaries. I am skeptical that PFHOF voters will take this into consideration, but consider that Rivers has had the least compelling collection of head coaches of any QB who is in the HOF or will receive strong consideration for it... here are his head coaches since he became the Chargers starter in 2006:
- Marty (1 season) - 2006
- Norv (6) - 2007-2012
- McCoy (4) - 2013-2016
- Lynn (3) - 2017-2019
- Reich (1) - 2020
Compare that to the coaches his PFHOF level contemporaries had:
- Brady had Belichick
- Peyton Manning had Dungy
- Brees had Payton
- Roethlisberger had Cowher and Tomlin
- Eli Manning had Coughlin
Rivers also generally had a weaker supporting cast. People will quickly point to Tomlinson and Gates, and they were certainly outstanding teammates... but those people generally ignore that he has played behind mostly terrible offensive lines... and I mean terrible. He also often played with poor defenses and special teams units. I doubt PFHOF voters will view his supporting cast as having been as weak as it was due to LT and Gates, but they may very well recognize the weak OLs and give him some credit for that.
I would love to believe that the PFHOF voters will see him for who he was as an NFL player, and I think the last few minutes of this press conference really show it.
The case for Rivers can be summarized as follows:
- HOF worthy accumulated statistics (e.g., wins, completions, passing yards, passing TDs, comebacks, game winning drives)
- HOF worthy rate statistics (e.g., completion percentage, passing yards per game, YPA, passer rating)... so he wasn't just a compiler
- Toughness, exemplified by him having the second longest streak in NFL history of consecutive starts, especially since it is known that he played through some tough injuries
- Signature moment, playing in AFCCG a week after tearing his ACL
- Strong character
Is all of this enough for him to make the HOF without more postseason success? I think it's close, but ultimately it will be tough for the HOF voters to leave him out. I think he will make it eventually but will likely have to wait for a while.
Thoughts?
Well put together as usual. I'm with you on the borderline label. His stats certainly justify it. I think The Hall is watered down, which strengthens his case. I believe it should be waaay more exclusive than it is. But it's not. It's just a tool to apease a broad audience at this point. It's business as usual for the NFL. He'll get in one day. Gates though? Still pissed about the first ballot snub.
Great write-up, Tau!
I've always thought Rivers is a borderline HOF player, based solely on the thought that you should be one of the top 3-5 players (or some arbitrary number) at your position for a few years to get a HOF... but after looking into it more, that train if thought seems completely unfounded.
After looking into it, there have been multiple years where 8-10 HoF QB's have played in a given season, and one where 9 were starters.
That flipped my perspective a bit as well. The biggest hurdle to me always seemed that he was just outshined by multiple QBs within his conference, but knowing there is precedent to have this many HoF QBs in the league at a time, I feel a lot better about his odds.
After looking into it, there have been multiple years where 8-10 HoF QB's have played in a given season, and one where 9 were starters.
Rivers played in a golden era for QB play. IMO these are possible HOF contemporaries with whom his career overlapped:
Obvious HOF locks:
- Brady
- Peyton
- Brees
- Eli
- Roethlisberger
- Favre
- Rodgers
- Mahomes
Possible HOFers:
- Jackson - very close to moving to the lock group, maybe already there
- Wilson - I expect he will make it
- Ryan - I doubt he will make it
- Stafford - I don't think he would make it today, but he's not done yet
All of these players except Mahomes, Jackson, and Wilson played in the 2010 season. That is 10 players including Rivers. Interestingly enough, it is arguable that Rivers outplayed all of them in that season. That was the year he led the league in passing yards and YPA while throwing to guys off the street due to injuries. He threw TDs to 11 different players that season.
Looking at this group, IMO Rivers was better than Eli and Roethlisberger, but they have postseason success Rivers does not have. I also think he was better than Wilson, Ryan, and Stafford. Looking at it that way, it seems like he should make it.
Another way I looked at this in the past is to look at QBs inducted by year.
- 1963 (2) - Sammy Baugh, Earl Clark
- 1964 (1) - Jimmy Conzelman
- 1965 (4) - Otto Graham, Sid Luckman, Bob Waterfield, John Driscoll
- 1966 (1) - Arnie Herber
- 1967 (1) - Bobby Layne
- 1971 (2) - Y.A. Tittle, Norm Van Brocklin
- 1972 (1) - Clarence Parker
- 1977 (1) - Bart Starr
- 1979 (1) - Johnny Unitas
- 1981 (1) - George Blanda
- 1983 (1) - Sonny Jurgensen
- 1985 (2) - Joe Namath, Roger Staubach
- 1986 (1) - Fran Tarkenton
- 1987 (1) - Len Dawson
- 1989 (1) - Terry Bradshaw
- 1990 (1) - Bob Griese
- 1993 (1) - Dan Fouts
- 2000 (1) - Joe Montana
- 2002 (1) - Jim Kelly
- 2004 (1) - John Elway
- 2005 (3) - Dan Marino, Steve Young, Benny Friedman
- 2006 (2) - Troy Aikman, Warren Moon
- 2016 (2) - Brett Favre, Ken Stabler
- 2017 (1) - Kurt Warner
- 2021 (1) - Peyton Manning
That is 35 HOF QBs in 61 HOF classes. Since the class of 2000, 12 QBs have been inducted in 24 classes.
For expected HOFers who have not been inducted yet, here is their first year of eligibility:
- Eli - 2024
- Brees - 2025
- Rivers - 2025
- Roethlisberger - 2026
- Brady - 2027
- Rodgers - 2029 at the earliest, if this is his last season, which seems possible
I doubt Rivers will be elected in the same class as any of those players. I suppose electing him in the same class as Roethlisberger is a storyline, but there are so many deserving players at other positions, I assume it won't happen.
I would guess Eli, Brees, Roethlisberger, and Brady each get inducted in their first class of eligibility, so all 4 of them would be inducted in the next 4 classes if I am correct. That would mean 5 QBs inducted from 2018-2027, which is right in line with the recent trend.
However, after that, Rodgers is the only near term QB who will be inducted who was clearly better than Rivers. I think Rivers will probably make it somewhere in the classes of 2028-2035, in a class that does not include Rodgers (i.e., if Rodgers is eligible in 2029, then Rivers won't be in that class). With 4 QBs in a row 2024-2027 and Rodgers soon to follow, Rivers may very well be in the 2031-2035 window. His final year of eligibility will be in 2039.
@tau837 Do you think Eli deserves to make it? Or do you view him as 'expected' because of the post-season success he's had (and how this might influence voters).
Like you, I think Rivers has a compelling case statistically, but may have to wait a while because of his lack of post-season success. And the 'poor coaches' angle is one which, sadly, voters may also view two ways. Either as Rivers not being supported, or Rivers not being good enough to propel those coaches into successful HC careers. You'd have to be daft I think to view it the second way, but the passage of time can do strange things to people's memories.
@alisterlloyd I think there are enough voters that believe in enshrining players that you "can't tell the story on the NFL without" that Eli gets in.
I'd be surprised if he's a first-ballot, just because of how many years he was middling and how rough his last years were. But I think he eventually gets in (and wouldn't be surprised if he does go first-ballot, based on Tau pointing out how he's the only first-ballot QB that year).
Yes, I actually think Eli deserves it. I generally believe players make the HOF because of a combination of:
- Honors/awards
- Statistical production
- Winning, especially in postseason (maybe better labeled as playing for winning teams and making significant contributions to those teams winning)
Other factors can matter, at least to some voters:
- Signature games/plays (e.g., think of Lynn Swann's big Super Bowl catches, Namath's guarantee, etc.)
- Part of "telling the story of the NFL" during the player's career
- Context (e.g., quality of situation, off field character/issues)
Eli:
- Honors/awards: 2 Super Bowl MVPs, MOY, 4 Pro Bowls -- 2 SBMVPs carries this category
- Strong accumulated statistics (not so much for rate statistics, so compiler label applies here):
- Currently top 11 in completions, passing yards, passing TDs
- Currently #12 in game-winning drives and #16 in comebacks
- QB for 2 Super Bowl champions
- 12 QBs have won 2 Super Bowls (Brady, Bradshaw, Montana, Aikman, Mahomes, Peyton, Staubach, Elway, Griese, Roethlisberger, Eli, Plunkett), and all but Plunkett are in the HOF or IMO will be
- This is the clincher IMO - Eli played great in those two Super Bowl runs, with multiple big plays
- This hits both signature games/plays and "telling the story of the NFL"
- Good character; no off field issues AFAIK
- Other factors that shouldn't matter but will:
- East coast bias, playing in the biggest NFL market
- Last name is Manning... he was one of the most 'famous' QBs in the league during his career and still is
I think Rivers will probably make it somewhere in the classes of 2028-2035, in a class that does not include Rodgers (i.e., if Rodgers is eligible in 2029, then Rivers won't be in that class). With 4 QBs in a row 2024-2027 and Rodgers soon to follow, Rivers may very well be in the 2031-2035 window. His final year of eligibility will be in 2039.
This is really fair. 2028 makes sense to me - only because it seems like we should have flushed out his competition, and it's before Rodgers as you pointed out. But either way, it'll be interesting.
[/et_pb_row]
[/et_pb_section]
