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We've just released Episode 94 of the Thunder Down Under Chargers Podcast.
Our synopsis for Episode 94 is below:
Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert and rookie Ladd McConkey lit up the field in a commanding 26-8 win over the New Orleans Saints. McConkey made history as the first Chargers rookie since Keenan Allen in 2013 to record a 100-yard receiving game, hauling in two touchdown catches to secure the win. Herbert, both through the air and on the ground, displayed elite playmaking, while Jesse Minter’s defensive scheme stifled the Saints’ offense, forcing multiple quarterback pressures and leading the Chargers to a decisive victory at SoFi Stadium. Join us on this special Victory Podcast episode of Thunder Down Under Chargers as we break down every highlight, discuss key moments, and preview the Chargers’ upcoming matchup against the Cleveland Browns. Don’t miss it!"
You can also listen on Spotify below (or download on audio wherever you like to listen to podcasts):
As always, you can support us by doing any or all of the following:
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Hope you enjoy the episode! Thanks so much for listening 
Alister (@TDU_Alister)
Posting the Coach's Film clips from the Saints game that I thought were important or interesting:
Clip #1: https://twitter.com/TDU_Chargers/status/1851353776890003577
Clip #2: https://twitter.com/TDU_Chargers/status/1851358529812123718
Clip #3: https://twitter.com/TDU_Chargers/status/1851360418821734453
Clip #4: https://twitter.com/TDU_Chargers/status/1851361503343231027
Clip #5: https://twitter.com/TDU_Chargers/status/1851364971310903297
Clip #6: https://twitter.com/TDU_Chargers/status/1851366111318581477
Clip #7: https://twitter.com/TDU_Chargers/status/1851371330782019779
Clip #8: https://twitter.com/TDU_Chargers/status/1851372961254801479
Clip #9: https://twitter.com/TDU_Chargers/status/1851374554155008066
Clip #10: https://twitter.com/TDU_Chargers/status/1851380055051813119
Clip #11: https://twitter.com/TDU_Chargers/status/1851391957852950893
Clip #12: https://twitter.com/TDU_Chargers/status/1851394589078495345
Clip #13: https://twitter.com/TDU_Chargers/status/1851395651021779250
Clip #14: https://twitter.com/TDU_Chargers/status/1851397675352277399
Clip #15: https://twitter.com/TDU_Chargers/status/1851399903336939738
Comment: https://twitter.com/TDU_Chargers/status/1851405863371874341
Great stuff as always
I really should pose this to the board. But if there is an IOL trade to be made with somoene who we can maintain control and/or have the first shot during FA, should we make a trade with someone this year. I realize this will be a small sample set because after all the trade has to fit your scheme (most forget about this when they just want us to trade for the sake of trading) and it has to be of significant value vs what you are giving up (usually a decent pick)
There simply may not be anyone out there that exists for an in-season trade. Ravens are not sending anyone over any time soon ; )
I dont see this front office making any deals for WR or CBs or edge guys or anything in year one.
Thanks Pistol.
Centers on expiring contracts include: Ryan Kelly (Colts, 31), Connor Williams (Seattle, Kyle's bf, 27), Coleman Shelton (Bears, 29), Nick Harris (Browns, 25), Josh Myers (Packers, 26), Bozeman and Drew Dalman (26). Some of those are current starters and probably not available. Doubt we make an offer for any of these.
Guards on expiring contracts include:
Certainly more options available if the team wanted to upgrade at RG (I assume Zion is safe for this year). Somehow, I don't think they will. Mustipher has just been activated from the PS for this week.
I am going to predict that we make a move at WR (Chark insurance), TE (anybody who can run), CB (Asante/Fulton insurance) or Edge (Bosa insurance) before the deadline. I think the OL are safe.
I haven’t watched this episode yet but from these video clips, I have these comments:
- Defenses will continue to exploit the IOL weakness against stunts. Zion is a liability when it comes to this area of interior blocking. From the video clip, he appears to show lack of discipline to remain upright instead of launching and reaching into the tackle’s lane to leave himself unbalanced and open for the stunt to be effective against him. In this particular play, Slater seems to have recognized the stunt right away when his man hesitates to engage him right away on blocking. Slater extends out his right arm in apparent attempt to keep Zion on his spot ready for the coming stunt but Zion fails to see it. But even with his man taking a shallow cut towards Slater to initiate the stunt, Zion should have been able to identify the stunt right away to remain disciplined. I think is more mental with Zion. While he is excellent at run blocking and okay in one-on-one straight up pass blocking, stunts kill him and more importantly killing Herbert eventually. Zone blitzes are also problematic for him, too, where he over commits and gets fooled easily by DL diversion moves.
- Playcall against overload pressure. The defense shows similar pre-snap overload pressure look for the 2nd time to this point to my recollection. First, they only send the safety who was blocked but this time they send the safety and CB. This is a miss line call by the center, one of many not just in this game alone, but Herbert should have seen it especially from the shotgun angle that the defensive front alignment indicates slide right. The CB positions himself here behind the DE from the center's angle. I don’t believe Bozeman can see him, and he does seem to be looking hard enough to see who are on the right side either. The line call should have been a right slide blocking to seal off the blitzing. It would have been a big play to Palmer for at least 30 yards in the direction Herbert was looking, if the line call was executed correctly.
Herbert shouldn’t assume the center knows the right line call. He shouldn’t ever hesitate to make corrections or vocalize what he sees. It isn’t Corey Linsley at center who call 90% correct line calls. It just shows how crucial the center position to an OL. If this can’t get correct soon, this OL will continue to struggle and Herbert won’t be healthy for too long either.
- Harbaugh’s conservative game management? Harbaugh had it right in choosing the extra point to go up 10-2 over going for the 2-point conversion. Kicking the extra point has a 95% success rate versus 31% (2014 stats) for 2-point conversion. At 31% success rate, analytic wouldn’t suggest to go for it at such 3 in 10 odd, and that you’re ahead on the scoreboard in the first quarter. You have a defense that is very hard to score on. You let your opponent face the unlikely odd of making the 2-point conversion themselves, not doing them a favor by not putting up the extra point on the board.
@tui1hit Really great insights Tui. Love hearing these takes from a seasoned player of the sport.
On the XP attempt, 31% success rate surprises me! I thought it might be closer to 50%. Still, the risk calculus remains a live question for me:
- Your win probability is likely to increase fairly significantly by increasing your lead from 8 points to 9 points.
- Your win probably will increase from 7 points to 8 points as well, but (my guess only), it would likely be of a lesser order of magnitude than getting to 9. I would be tempted by that to go for it (since a 7 point lead, as we found out, is still a healthy lead).
- The argument about the Defense being good works both ways. With a #1 Scoring Defense, you could argue that they're well equipped to bail you out whatever you do, whereas I would argue the Offense should take their chances to be aggressive when they can (since they haven't been as efficient this year).
- I think it's relevant that on the TD on the previous play, we went Jumbo and Dobbins hammered it in. As a coach that would give me confidence to put my foot on the jugular and go for 2. Strike while the iron is hot!
- My playcall would've been some kind of RPO with Herbert in the Gun. Read the conflict defender. Either hand it off to Dobbins. Or, Herbert keeps it and runs it in to the edge (since he was running well to that point). Or, Herbert keeps it and passes the ball to someone in the flat.
All up I thought it was a missed opportunity to be aggressive IMO (being up two scores against a Rookie QB is a chance I would've taken). But understand others opinion will differ!
Thank you Alister. You’re too kind, brother.
With line calls, I think it would be beneficial for Nick Hardwick to initiate a group phone or Zoom powwow with Philip Rivers to include Bozeman and Herbert to have the two former all-pros tell it how Nick makes the line calls and Philip overrides calls when he sees it differently. Rivers was never shy from overriding line calls and Hardwick never had an issue with it. Rivers lines up his RB, FB, TE’s, or WR’s before snap better than anyone in response to certain pre-snap defensive looks. What sets Rivers apart from most is how well he reads defenses and anticipates tendencies from certain defensive looks. I think Herbert is learning it quickly while lacking Rivers' boldness.
Love Bozeman’s effort and tenacity at the line but he isn’t an upgrade at the position. He has made far too many questionable line calls in addition to his below average plays at the position.
@tui1hit that's a really great idea. I honestly believe that Bozeman is part of Zion's issues with stunts.
I agree, Buck. From the video clip; it is within Bozeman's roles to recognize the possible stunt when the DT is lining up between Zion and Slater at 3-tec while the NT is lining up on Pipkins at 2-tec. Bozeman should've signaled to Pip to take on the NT so he can slide over and fill the possible stunt gap to help Zion and Slater. Alt is already on one-on-one with the DE and no other line defender there Pip to account for. If you see the video clip, the NT throws a slip/slide block on Bozeman to occupy him and to open up the gap for the stunt. Pipkins was sleeping on the job w/ nobody to block.
I think Zion also needs to first relax and let it come to him first instead of allowing his head to outrace himself leading to making simple mistakes. Even w/out Bozeman's help, he should have been able to handle the stunt on his own.
@tui1hit the situation you've described leads to your last paragraph, IMO. I believe the biggest reason Zion is overextending at times is because he's been placed in a position that causes a late/over reaction. Not absolving him of all accountability....he's still got to learn to keep his base, not overextend, and recognize defensive shifts. But I believe a better center, Bozeman coached up or otherwise, would pay big dividends for Zion.
Pipkins? I think he just is what he is. Serviceable but replaceable.
FWIW Google led me to this article: What analytics really say about when to go for a two point conversion in an NFL game
According to this article:
- In 2023, 96.0% of extra point attempts were successful and 56.5% of two point conversion attempts were successful.
- Historically (period undefined), two point conversion attempts were successful 48% of the time.
- Table 1 recommends going for the extra point in this situation under discussion.
- Table 2 recommends going for the two point conversion only if you have reason to believe you have a ~55% chance of success. That suggests going for the extra point.
@tau837 Thanks. It's almost midnight here so I'll have to read this properly again tomorrow with fresh eyes.
On Table 1, maybe I'm reading it incorrectly but after the Dobbins touchdown, with the score being 9-2 (Point Different of +7), doesn't this row (highlighted yellow) suggest that 2 points would be the correct decision in all scenarios unless there was 1 possession in the game remaining?
Funnily, the Chargers Offense and Saints Defense are probably pretty close to the 'average' teams that would make Table 1 closer to being reliable.
I gave some reasons why I thought the 'strategies, specific teams and match-up' made the 2-pt attempt worth it in this situation to capitalise on the Dobbins' score from the Jumbo package (and I suggested a "RPO" or "Zone Read" playcall to set up another Dobbins score or, alternatively, for Herbert to keep it instead if the Saints stacked the goal-line).
Assuming Table 2 is more accurate. Again, using Table 2, after scoring the TD the Chargers led by 7 points (so doesn't that make the probability of success that would make it worth going for it .46)? (see highlighted below).
Nevertheless, I have to reflect on this author's view that "most of the time the win probability does not make a huge difference in the outcome of the game, affecting the win probability by less than one-percent in most cases". That makes my characterisation of this decision as hyper conservative incorrect.
I'd be happier if I thought Harbaugh was at least thinking about these type of things carefully 😆 I think he's probably more of a "trust his instinct" guy. And, to be fair, it's served him in good stead in the past, so I'll continue to not get as angry about it as I would if the coach was someone like Anthony Lynn. But also hope for it not to sting us in an important game one day.
@alisterlloyd You're right, Al. I was looking at the 9 line, rather than the 7 line. So this article and approach supports your viewpoint on this.
@tau837 Ok great. Still, my takeaway is I’ve probably made a bigger deal of it than was necessary. Enjoy the game tomorrow ⚡️👌🏻
Great episode! Curiously enough I listened to your podcast the day after I visited Tyne Cot Cemetery near Ypres. It's the biggest mass grave of British Common Wealth soldiers in the world. More than 10.000 soldiers from World War 1 lay buried there including more than 1.000 Australian soldier. Visiting it was a very sobering experience. In any case it made your World War 1 references hit a bit of differently. I say this not as a critique just wanted to share it with you guys.
@arne-sixpakfrombelgium Thanks for sharing this with us Arne. Ypres is a word that's synonymous with the Great War, and also with unnecessary suffering. I'm sure it was a solemn moment for you reflecting on it all. Appreciate you watching and supporting us for so long. Cheers
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